The Best Week 6 NFL Survivor Picks: Current Ownership, Chalk, and Contrarian Plays

So last week I wrote our first NFL Survivor strategy article of the season and, well, it didn’t go great. Now, I definitely wasn’t alone in my affection for the Cowboys in Week 5 – it was a great spot, after all, but sometimes the NFL just has other plans.

That said, it’s time to turn the page to Week 6. There are now 60,863 players remaining in the Hard Rock Bet’s $2 Million NFL Survivor contest after Thursday Night Football meaning an equal share for each Survivor currently sits at $32.86… not bad considering we’ve got a long way to go.

Let’s dig into the Week 6 slate and our current Survivor data and figure out how we’re going to make it to Week 7.

NFL Week 6 Survivor Chalk: Where the Field is Going

Looking at our early Survivor data, here’s where the field is gravitating so far:

1. LA Rams – 25% of Week 6 Picks

As I’m writing this 25% of all Survivor picks submitted so far for Week 6 are on the Rams to beat the Cardinals.

This is a logical place for the field to gravitate – the Rams are a good team – in fact, they’re currently the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl (+550) despite a disappointing 2-3 start, they’re playing at home, and the Cardinals don’t seem to be very good having lost their last four games. The point spread rests at a massive 13 points right now, making the Rams by far the biggest favorite of the week.

Reasons NOT to pick the Rams

There aren’t many, but if you really wanted to find a hole in the argument for LA you could point to the fact that it’s a short week for them. They lost to the Bills on Monday night in a game that needed overtime – there could be some tired legs on a team filled with veteran talent.

Further, the Cardinals are already 1-0 at SoFi Stadium so far in 2026. They upset the Chargers in Week 1. However, from what we’ve seen out of the Chargers so far this season I don’t know that we should be putting too much stock in this.

2. Indianapolis Colts – 22.6% of Week 6 Picks

Unsurprisingly the team playing against the Tennessee Titans is going to carry quite a bit of ownership. The Indianapolis Colts currently have 22.6% of the total picks made so far during Week 6 and I think they’re a fine choice. The spread on this game is one of the highest of the week at 7 points.

The Colts looked bad last week against Pittsburgh, but their first four performances of the season were the opposite. They’re 2-1 at home and Jonathan Taylor looks set to feast on the Titans at 1pm.

Reasons NOT to pick the Colts

The primary reasons NOT to select the Colts would be:

• You think they’re not very good
• You’re saving them for Week 10 when they host the Dolphins

But realistically this is about as good a spot as you can hope for with Indy.

3. New England Patriots – 16.8% of Week 6 Picks

There were a lot of questions being asked in New England after their 35-6 loss to Jacksonville in Week 3, however, the team has produced nothing but answers since. In Week 4 they dealt the Bills their first ever defeat at their new stadium, and they absolutely pummeled the Raiders 45-17 in Week 5 — the Pats are back. Next up? The Jets.

The Patriots are a touchdown favorite right now, one of the largest of the week, and look primed to stay hot against a Jets team that will be without several of it’s biggest offensive playmakers.

Reasons NOT to pick the Patriots

If you’re looking for a reason to pivot, this is a divisional AFC East clash that could end up being closer than we expect… but the more compelling reason would be if you wanted to save them for a rainy day later in the competition.

The Patriots travel to the currently winless Dolphins in Week 8, the currently winless Chargers in Week 11, and will play the Jets again in Week 16 – although that one is on the road. As good as this spot looks for them, having them in the arsenal for later in the contest could be worthwhile.

Contrarian Week 6 NFL Survivor Plays

If you’re looking to be different this week, I would start with the following less-owned plays:

Carolina Panthers – 3.6% of Week 6 Survivor Picks

I wasn’t feeling the Panthers as a Survivor play this week but the more I think about it, the more I like it. Let’s examine why this one could work:

• The Panthers might be good – the last time we saw them they beat a talented Lions team on SNF
• Bryce Young might be good – he currently leads the NFL with 317 yards per game through four weeks
• The Panthers are well rested, coming off a Week 5 bye
• The Eagles are NOT well rested, having played their Week 5 game in London
• The Eagles will be without QB Jalen Hurts, and both Saquon Barkley and DaVonta Smith are questionable

Further, if we’re going to use the Panthers in 2026 this looks like a great time to do it – there aren’t any spots on the remaining schedule that really jump out. Generally speaking it feels risky to pick against the Eagles in Philly, but there are plenty of reasons to like the Panthers side.

Kansas City Chiefs – 8% of Week 6 Survivor Picks

Of the biggest favorites in Week 6 the Chiefs are catching by far the least amount of ownership. They’re a 7.5 point home favorite over the Chargers and are coming off a Week 5 bye. They’ll be well rested and ready to go here.

This is an AFC West divisional matchup, and the Chargers were generally regarded as contenders heading into the season but the early returns this year have not been promising.

The Best Week 6 NFL Survivor Picks

These are my favorite Survivor picks for Week 6:

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. LA Rams
3. Kansas City Chiefs

Ranking my favorite plays of the week I’d start with the Colts. They’re going to be popular but I just don’t think we’re going to get a better opportunity to use them this year and they’ve been reliable at home.

Next, I’d just lean into the Rams chalk. They’re such a big favorite, they’re playing at home, and at 2-3 they actually need to win this one to keep pace.

Finally, the Chiefs have one of, if not the very best spots of the week. They’re undefeated, playing at home, coming off a bye, against a winless Chargers team… and most of all they’re currently catching sub-10% ownership on the week meaning this will be relatively unique. The only reason the Chief’s aren’t my top pick is because they have some nice spots coming up on the schedule that could be worth waiting for.

Current Week 6 NFL Survivor Ownership Percentages

Below is each team’s share of the picks submitted so far for Week 6 of Hard Rock Bet’s $2 Million Florida Survivor contest.

• Los Angeles Rams – 25.0%
• Indianapolis Colts – 22.6%
• New England Patriots – 16.8%
• San Francisco 49ers – 9.6%
• Kansas City Chiefs – 8.0%
• Carolina Panthers – 3.6%
• Buffalo Bills – 3.3%
• Jacksonville Jaguars – 2.5%
• Pittsburgh Steelers – 1.7%
• Baltimore Ravens – 1.7%
• Seattle Seahawks – 1.5%
• New York Giants – 0.8%
• Philadelphia Eagles – 0.6%
• New Orleans Saints – 0.5%
• Chicago Bears – 0.3%
• Green Bay Packers – 0.3%
• Denver Broncos – 0.3%
• Dallas Cowboys – 0.3%
• Atlanta Falcons – 0.2%
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 0.2%
• Houston Texans – 0.1%
• Tennessee Titans – 0.1%
• New York Jets – 0.0%
• Cleveland Browns – 0.0%
• Los Angeles Chargers – 0.0%
• Las Vegas Raiders – 0.0%
• Washington Commanders – 0.0%
• Arizona Cardinals – 0.0%

Congrats to the Broncos Backers

I’m tossing this one up on Friday because the Thursday Night matchup wasn’t a super appealing one from a Survivor standpoint. On paper it looked like a great NFL football game, but it seemed an unnecessary risk from a Survivor standpoint.

Nevertheless, 101 of our 61,376 remaining entrants DID pick the Broncos, and are on to Week 7!

Submit Your Picks – See You In Week 7

Good luck to everyone still alive in the contest. Be sure to submit your picks within the betting app – remember each matchup locks at kickoff, so don’t forget. Failing to make a pick counts as a loss. We’ll see you in Week 7.