The FedExCup Playoffs continue this week with the second of three postseason events, as the top 50 players in the standings head to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri for the 2026 BMW Championship. By Sunday evening, that number will be trimmed to 30, with everyone above the cutoff advancing to next week’s TOUR Championship at East Lake.
Scottie Scheffler arrives in St. Louis at the forefront of just about every conversation surrounding the tournament. He won last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship by eight shots, is the defending BMW champion and remains the clear favorite to defend his title this week at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
Since opening odds were released Monday, plenty has changed on the board as bettors have started taking their positions for the week. Let’s take a look at the biggest odds movers before diving into where the most betting action has landed ahead of Thursday’s opening round.
BMW Championship: Biggest Odds Movers
Scheffler remains alone at the top of the market, although his price has ticked from +275 on Monday to +300 as of Wednesday afternoon. The more significant movement has taken place immediately behind him.
Ludvig Åberg has made one of the biggest moves among the contenders after Scottie, shortening from +1750 at open to +1400 despite not logging an outright win since February 2025. That puts him alongside Rory McIlroy, who has also moved from +1600 to +1400. Xander Schauffele has dropped from +1750 to +1600, while Cam Young moved from +2250 to +2000.
There have been notable moves further down the board as well. Min Woo Lee has moved from +6000 to +5000, while Justin Rose, Nicolai Højgaard and Ben Griffin have each gone from +7500 to +6000.
Two of the biggest jumps among the longer shots belong to Alex Smalley and Alex Fitzpatrick, who both opened at +10000 and now sit at +7500.
Several players have headed the other way. Robert MacIntyre has moved from +5000 to +7500 after withdrawing last week due to a knee injury, while Aaron Rai and Akshay Bhatia have each gone from +10000 to +15000 after finishing T63 and 68th, respectively, in Memphis.
Opening Odds (8/17) | Updated Odds (8/19) |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler (+275) | Scottie Scheffler (+300) 📈 |
| Rory McIlroy (+1600) | Rory McIlroy (+1400) 📉 |
| Sam Burns (+1600) | Sam Burns (+1750) 📈 |
| Tommy Fleetwood (+1750) | Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) 📈 |
| Xander Schauffele (+1750) | Xander Schauffele (+1600) 📉 |
| Ludvig Åberg (+1750) | Ludvig Åberg (+1400) 📉 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick (+2250) | Matt Fitzpatrick (+2250) |
| Cameron Young (+2250) | Cameron Young (+2000) 📉 |
| Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) | Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) |
| Viktor Hovland (+2500) | Viktor Hovland (+3000) 📈 |
| Wyndham Clark (+3000) | Wyndham Clark (+3000) |
| Si Woo Kim (+3000) | Si Woo Kim (+2500) 📉 |
| Patrick Cantlay (+3000) | Patrick Cantlay (+3000) |
| Chris Gotterup (+3000) | Chris Gotterup (+3000) |
| Justin Thomas (+4000) | Justin Thomas (+4000) |
| Collin Morikawa (+4000) | Collin Morikawa (+4000) |
| Jake Knapp (+4000) | Jake Knapp (+4000) |
| Maverick McNealy (+5000) | Maverick McNealy (+5000) |
| Robert MacIntyre (+5000) | Robert MacIntyre (+7500) 📈 |
| Russell Henley (+5000) | Russell Henley (+5000) |
| Kurt Kitayama (+5000) | Kurt Kitayama (+5000) |
| Tom Kim (+5000) | Tom Kim (+5000) |
| Alex Noren (+6000) | Alex Noren (+7500) 📈 |
| Sungjae Im (+6000) | Sungjae Im (+7500) 📈 |
| Rickie Fowler (+6000) | Rickie Fowler (+7500) 📈 |
| Adam Scott (+6000) | Adam Scott (+6000) |
| J.J. Spaun (+6000) | J.J. Spaun (+6000) |
| Min Woo Lee (+6000) | Min Woo Lee (+5000) 📉 |
| Michael Brennan (+6000) | Michael Brennan (+6000) |
| Michael Thorbjornsen (+6000) | Michael Thorbjornsen (+5000) 📉 |
| Ryan Gerard (+6000) | Ryan Gerard (+5000) 📉 |
| Justin Rose (+7500) | Justin Rose (+6000) 📉 |
| Gary Woodland (+7500) | Gary Woodland (+10000) 📈 |
| Nicolai Højgaard (+7500) | Nicolai Højgaard (+6000) 📉 |
| Kristoffer Reitan (+7500) | Kristoffer Reitan (+10000) 📈 |
| Ben Griffin (+7500) | Ben Griffin (+6000) 📉 |
| Jacob Bridgeman (+7500) | Jacob Bridgeman (+7500) |
| Aaron Rai (+10000) | Aaron Rai (+15000) 📈 |
| Akshay Bhatia (+10000) | Akshay Bhatia (+15000) 📈 |
| Alex Smalley (+10000) | Alex Smalley (+7500) 📉 |
| Bud Cauley (+10000) | Bud Cauley (+10000) |
| Alex Fitzpatrick (+10000) | Alex Fitzpatrick (+7500) 📉 |
| J.T. Poston (+15000) | J.T. Poston (+15000) |
| Ryan Fox (+15000) | Ryan Fox (+15000) |
| Eric Cole (+15000) | Eric Cole (+15000) |
| Ryo Hisatsune (+15000) | Ryo Hisatsune (+15000) |
| Nico Echavarria (+20000) | Nico Echavarria (+15000) 📉 |
| Sahith Theegala (+20000) | Sahith Theegala (+20000) |
| Sepp Straka (+25000) | Sepp Straka (+25000) |
| Matt McCarty (+25000) | Matt McCarty (+25000) |
Odds as of Wednesday, August 19. Subject to change.
BMW Championship Betting Splits
Scheffler drawing the most outright action is nothing new, but the gap between him and the rest of the field is especially notable this week.
Most Bet to Win Outright
Scottie currently accounts for 24.19% of all outright bets at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook despite his +300 price. No other golfer has attracted even 7% of the tickets, with nearly one out of every four outright bets backing the World No. 1 to win for the second straight week.
- Scottie Scheffler (24.19% of all bets)
- Sam Burns (6.58%)
- Cameron Young (4.5%)
- Rory McIlroy (4.29%)
- Wyndham Clark (3.64%)
- Ludvig Åberg (3.63%)
- Si Woo Kim (3.45%)
- Viktor Hovland (3.12%)
- Hideki Matsuyama (2.96%)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (2.69%)
Most Bet First Round Leader
Scheffler is once again the most popular pick for First Round Leader, although the action is much more evenly distributed in a market where one round leaves far more room for variance.
Gary Woodland stands out as one of the more interesting names on the list considering his 100-1 outright price, but his history at Bellerive makes the First Round Leader interest a bit easier to understand. Woodland opened the 2018 PGA Championship with a 6-under 64 to take the solo lead after Thursday, followed it with a 66 and eventually finished T6.
- Scottie Scheffler (8.87% of all bets)
- Gary Woodland (6.03%)
- Hideki Matsuyama (4.55%)
- Sam Burns (4.32%)
- Cameron Young (3.87%)
- Viktor Hovland (3.30%)
- Rory McIlroy (3.07%)
- Ludvig Åberg (2.96%)
- Si Woo Kim (2.96%)
- Sungjae Im (2.96%)
BMW Championship Best Bet: Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 Finish (+190)
Before locking in your betting card for the BMW Championship, don’t forget to check out Hard Rock Bet’s Stats Hub. It’s available on mobile and desktop and features trends, streaks and other key betting insights for every PGA Tour event, like the one below:
Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 Finish (+190): Matsuyama has finished inside the top 10 in four straight tournaments, starting with a T3 at the 3M Open. He followed that with a T5 at the Rocket Classic before posting consecutive T7 finishes at the Wyndham Championship and last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Go back another two starts and Matsuyama finished T14 at both The Open Championship and the Travelers Championship. That’s six consecutive tournaments without a finish worse than T14, giving him one of the steadier stretches of golf in the field entering Bellerive.
Some of those finishes have required Matsuyama to do serious damage on Sunday rather than spend the entire week near the top of the leaderboard. For a Top 10 bet, that’s not necessarily a problem. Whether he gets there comfortably or requires another late charge, Matsuyama has continued finding his way into the mix by the end of the weekend.
He also has at least some competitive familiarity with Bellerive. Matsuyama is one of just 17 players in this week’s field who played the course during the 2018 PGA Championship. He finished T35 that week, so the result itself doesn’t jump off the page, but he won’t be encountering Bellerive under tournament conditions for the first time.
With four straight Top 10s and six consecutive finishes of T14 or better, we’ll back Matsuyama at +190 to finish inside the Top 10 once again this week.
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