MNF Touchdown Predictions: The Best NFL TD Bets for Monday – 49ers vs. Commanders

Happy Monday! We have plenty of scoring potential as the Commanders visit the 49ers to close out the Week 6 NFL slate. Before we dive into my top touchdown picks today, let’s set the stage.

San Francisco is a 7.5-point home favorite at Hard Rock Bet, and the 51.5-point total suggests there should be opportunities to find the end zone. The 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel, though, which creates an interesting wrinkle when sorting through their touchdown options.

I’m targeting two San Francisco pass catchers who could benefit from his absence, plus Washington’s top receiver in a game where the Commanders may need to keep throwing.

Let’s get into my favorite touchdown picks for Monday, October 19, at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

The Best Commanders vs. 49ers Touchdown Props for MNF

• Terry McLaurin +220 Anytime TD
• George Kittle +105 Anytime TD
• Brandin Cooks +250 Anytime TD

All referenced odds are subject to change.

MNF Touchdown Pick: Terry McLaurin (+220)

We’ll start with the underdogs, where Terry McLaurin offers an appealing price at +220.

It hasn’t been the most exciting season for Scary Terry, but Jayden Daniels missing time is an important part of that story. The quarterback-receiver connection has worked before, and I am not ready to dismiss it because the early results have been uneven.

McLaurin has posted 50, 77, and 62 receiving yards, respectively, over his last three games. He also has 26 targets through four appearances, so it is not as if Washington has forgotten he exists.

The overall target share is not going to sell this bet on its own. His air-yard involvement remains encouraging, though, and he is still the alpha in this receiver room.

What really gets my attention is where he is playing when Washington gets close. McLaurin has been on the field for eight of the Commanders’ nine snaps inside the 5-yard line and 16 of 18 inside the 10.

That gives us a receiver with downfield opportunity who is also staying involved when the offense reaches scoring territory. We aren’t relying exclusively on a long touchdown to get there.

The expected game script adds another reason to look his way. Washington is a sizable road underdog, and if San Francisco gets ahead, the Commanders could spend much of the second half throwing to catch up.

At +220, I like the combination of his established connection with Daniels, close-range participation, and potential passing volume.

Monday TD Prediction: George Kittle (+105)

The simplest answer to San Francisco’s injury situation might also be the best one. With Samuel unavailable, the 49ers don’t necessarily need to manufacture a new featured weapon. They can lean more heavily on George Kittle.

Kittle has 268 receiving yards on 28 targets this season, with a 19% target share. I would prefer that share to be a little higher, but his 24% first-read rate shows he remains a meaningful part of the initial plan rather than just a late option in the progression. He’s also tied with Mike Evans for the team lead with six targets inside the 20-yard line.

Then there’s the snap usage near the goal line, which is about as good as it gets. Kittle has played all 14 of San Francisco’s snaps inside the 5 and 25 of 26 inside the 10. If the 49ers are knocking on the door, he is almost certainly on the field.

The Commanders have allowed 14 receiving touchdowns through five games, the fourth-most in the league. Two of the teams above them have already played six games.

At +105, Kittle is the shorter-priced option on my betting card, but I’m comfortable backing his role at better than even money.

Best TD Picks Tonight: Brandin Cooks (+250)

Brandin Cooks has already started working his way into San Francisco’s offense. He played a 12% snap share in his first action with the team in Week 4, then jumped to 40% last week as Samuel left the game injured.

Samuel played just 43% of the snaps himself, so Cooks’ increase is worth paying attention to heading into a game without him.

Outside of Evans, the 49ers have Jacob Cowing and Jordan Watkins in the receiver mix. There’s room for a veteran like Cooks to become a useful piece, particularly in a scheme that can create opportunities without asking him to carry the passing game.

Cooks scored on his only catch last week. Normally, that is exactly the type of result I would be cautious about chasing. But he should have a ton of opportunities, and the matchup also works in his favor.

Washington has allowed the seventh-highest share of targets to receivers aligned out wide. The Commanders are also allowing the highest first-read target rate in the NFL to opposing pass catchers.

If San Francisco builds a few plays with Cooks as the intended first option, this Washington defense has not given us much reason to expect it to consistently take those throws away.

At +250, I’m willing to bet that last week’s increase in playing time was the beginning of a larger opportunity rather than a one-game cameo.

Good luck with all of your MNF touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props – an appealing role still needs the right opportunity to turn into six points.