TNF Touchdown Predictions: The 4 Best NFL TD Bets for Thursday Night – Broncos vs. Seahawks

Happy Thursday! We have a fun NFL matchup as the Seahawks head to Denver to take on the Broncos.

I’m digging into the goal-line usage for this one, and a few numbers really jump off the page. Seattle has a tight end who practically lives on the field in scoring territory, Denver has a clear receiving preference near the end zone, and Bo Nix gives us another way to attack the Broncos’ touchdown market.

We’ll also take a smaller shot on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score first. His anytime price is a little shorter than I want, but the first-touchdown number gives us a different way to get involved. I’m also sprinkling in first TD wagers on my three anytime TD picks.

Let’s get into my favorite touchdown picks for Thursday, October 15, at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

The Best Seahawks vs. Broncos Touchdown Props for TNF

• AJ Barner +300 Anytime TD
• Courtland Sutton +260 Anytime TD
• Bo Nix +375 Anytime TD
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba +500 First TD

All referenced odds are subject to change.

TNF Touchdown Pick: AJ Barner (+300)

AJ Barner has not caught a touchdown this season, which is pretty remarkable when you look at how Seattle is using him.

He leads the Seahawks’ skill-position players with an 89% snap share and has been on the field for 89% of their passing plays. That is a substantial workload before we even get to the interesting part.

Barner has played every Seattle snap inside the 5-yard line and 27 of 28 inside the 10, good for a 96% share.

No other Seahawk has played more than 60% of the team’s snaps inside the 10.

That’s an enormous gap. Barner is not rotating in and out while Seattle decides which personnel package to use. When the Seahawks get close, he is almost always part of the plan.

The targets support the playing time too. He ranks second on the team with five targets inside the 20 and has a pair of end-zone targets.

Denver gives us another reason to be interested. The Broncos are banged up in the secondary and have allowed the second-highest target share to players aligned inline this season.

And there is a little bonus to this bet. Barner already has a tush-push touchdown on his resume, so catching a pass is not his only route to the end zone.

I cannot promise the receiving touchdown arrives Thursday, but this is not a player whose role needs to change for it to happen. The opportunity is already there.

At +300, I’m happy to back that kind of involvement without needing Seattle to suddenly rewrite its game plan.

Thursday TD Prediction: Courtland Sutton (+260)

If I’m betting on a Denver receiver to score, Courtland Sutton is where I want to start.

The Broncos run the ball on just 48% of their plays inside the 10-yard line, ranking just 20th in the league. They are willing to throw near the goal line, and Sutton’s involvement separates him from the other receiving options.

He leads Denver with a 74% snap share inside the 10. Pat Bryant ranks second but is out for the season. Adam Trautman follows at 59%, with J.K. Dobbins and Nate Adkins also ahead of Jaylen Waddle, who checks in at 44%.

The tight-end participation is interesting, but it needs context. Trautman and Adkins account for two of Denver’s three highest snap shares inside the 5, yet they play just 34% and 20% of the team’s passing snaps, respectively.

Being on the field can mean blocking. With Sutton, we have evidence that Bo Nix is actually looking his way. In fact, Sutton leads the Broncos with six targets inside the 20 and four end-zone targets.

At +260, Sutton is my preferred Denver receiving bet. His +1100 first-touchdown price is also worth a small sprinkle if you want to take a more aggressive angle on that role.

Thursday Long-Shot TD Pick: Bo Nix (+375)

I’m still not sure how sold I am on Bo Nix as a long-term passer. Fortunately, this bet doesn’t require him to throw a touchdown.

We need him to run one in, and Seattle’s defensive pressure could help create that opportunity.

The Seahawks have faced the third-most quarterback scrambles this season, largely because they have been so effective at making opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable.

Pressure can kill a drive, obviously. But it can also force a quarterback to pull the ball down and create something himself. Nix is willing to do that. If Seattle gets into the backfield and the coverage holds up, he has the ability to escape rather than stand there waiting for a sack.

There’s also the simpler path. Denver gets to the goal line, keeps the ball in its quarterback’s hands, and asks him to sneak it across.

At +375, those different rushing possibilities make Nix an interesting alternative to the Broncos’ skill-position players. For a much smaller first-touchdown gamble, he is available at +1750.

TNF First Touchdown Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+500)

I want some exposure to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but I don’t feel like adding another anytime-touchdown bet at even money.

Instead, I’m putting a smaller wager on him to score the first touchdown at +500.

JSN is the best receiver in football. Smith-Njigba has already piled up 10 targets inside the 20-yard line and five end-zone targets. Both totals rank second in the NFL.

Seattle is not just feeding him between the 20s. The Seahawks are repeatedly looking his way when they have a chance to finish a drive.

Good luck with all of your TNF touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props – the usage can point us in the right direction, but we still need the ball to bounce our way.

More ways to play

If you’re already in on today’s action, Florida players can also check out Real Money Games powered by Past Motor Racing, only on Hard Rock Bet. It’s a way to play fast-paced, real money game titles that fit seamlessly alongside game day.