On Tilt: Joe Raineri’s Top 5 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Week 2

Alright, it’s Week 2 of the NFL season, and I’ve got my top five plays of the weekend.

Let’s dive into these Week 2 games.

Eagles at Titans: Under 39.5

I know how this sounds. I was on the Under last week with the Jets and Titans. We hit the Under, and now I come back a week later with the same number in the same stadium and tell you to do it again.

Yeah, I’m doing it again.

Tennessee scored 10 points at home last week. Cam Ward threw for 140 yards against the Jets, and his only touchdown came in the fourth quarter when the game was already out of reach.

That does not get fixed in a week.

Philadelphia is a good football team, and I’m not saying the Eagles can’t score. I’m saying they won’t need to score all that much because the way Philadelphia wins is by handing the ball to Saquon Barkley and letting the clock bleed out.

Barkley had five carries that lost yardage against Washington last week, and the Eagles just kept feeding him anyway. That’s who they are and likely will be for the first month of the season.

They’re also doing it without starting left guard Landon Dickerson, who is on injured reserve. It’s another season with another new offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, and it’s going to take a little time to adjust.

The total is 39.5 at the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. I’m not sweating out an Over in any Tennessee game right now.

Pick: Eagles/Titans Under 39.5

Packers at Jets: Jets +3.5

If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years, it’s that you’re never going to profit in the NFL by backing road favorites.

Green Bay has been good in Week 2 under Matt LaFleur, but now you’re asking me to back a team on the road after it just blew a 22-10 lead entering the fourth quarter against Carson Wentz and Minnesota.

Twenty-nine unanswered points does not scream “bet me” on the road as a favorite. Not with that defense, even against a Jets team that I believe will be better than people expect.

I think New York is very much a live underdog right now.

At Hard Rock Bet, you can get the Jets at +3.5, with the moneyline also sitting at +155.

Pick: Jets +3.5

Commanders at Cowboys: Commanders +4

What did we actually learn about Dallas on Sunday night?

Same old, same old. The defense is the issue for the Cowboys.

Dallas lost to the Giants and was out-gained by 150 yards in the process. There was nothing fluky about it. The Cowboys were gashed.

I want to be fair because the Dallas offense is going to be top five again this year. They’re going to score. The problem is the exact same one they had a year ago: they couldn’t get the Giants off the field because the defense was no good.

Some of that is fixable, and some of it can certainly be fixed with a week of practice. But I’m not paying full price to find out if Dallas can correct it, especially with Malik Hooker doubtful and DeMarvion Overshown banged up.

Meanwhile, Washington lost by two in Philadelphia, and I don’t think anybody noticed how well the Commanders actually played because they lost. They moved the chains more often than the Eagles did, while Philadelphia won the game on a handful of big plays.

Washington’s defense was supposed to be the problem this year. After that game, I don’t see it that way. Not to mention, they’ve got a defensive-minded head coach.

At Hard Rock Bet, you can get Washington at +4 right now. I see plenty of value grabbing that number.

I’ll take the divisional dog in what is likely a field-goal game.

Pick: Commanders +4

Raiders at Chargers: Raiders Team Total Under 18.5

A lot of people’s Survivor hopes ended early in Los Angeles last week. The Chargers lost at home to Arizona and took a pile of Survivor entries with them. (Hard Rock Bet Survivor starts in Week 4!)

I stayed off that game, not because I thought the Chargers would lose, but because everybody was on them and I already had them circled for this week.

Here’s what nobody is talking about with that loss: the Chargers were outgained by 125 yards, and almost all of it came down to third down. They went 2-for-11 on third and fourth down and gave the ball away twice.

If they convert just two of those plays, we’re talking about a completely different afternoon.

I still like the Chargers. They’re not as bad as everybody thinks they were last week. With Mike McDaniel running the offense, they’ll be better. The defense was good last year, and I think it’s going to be good again this year.

Meanwhile, Vegas beat Miami comfortably, and Kirk Cousins still averaged only five yards per throw. That’s basically a long handoff. I’m not impressed.

Brock Bowers hasn’t practiced all week after missing Week 1, and he’s likely not playing in this one either.

So I’ve got two defenses that can play – the Raiders defense absolutely can play. But I’ve also got a Raiders offense that hasn’t shown me a thing. The ceiling is much higher for the Chargers here.

I feel more confident about the Raiders not scoring than I do anything else in this game.

Their team total is 18.5 at Hard Rock Bet, and I think the Under is the best value play in the game.

Pick: Raiders Team Total Under 18.5

Giants at Rams: Giants +7

Last week, I told you to lay four with the Rams in Australia.

That was a great call, wasn’t it?

Yeah, they lost 27-7. Not good. I’m fine, though. Thanks for asking.

Naturally, here I am with another opinion about the Rams after they messed us all up last week. But maybe nothing messed them up more than trying to make that trip within 24 hours.

Now the Rams are laying a touchdown on Monday night, and they’re going to have to do it with plenty of questions surrounding their pass rush.

Myles Garrett has already had knee surgery and is on injured reserve for a month. He played 40 snaps in Australia and didn’t record a tackle.

Then there’s Aaron Donald, who hasn’t played an NFL game since 2023. He’s not hurt, and Sean McVay said that he’s optimistic Donald will suit up Monday. But the reality is that none of us have any idea what he’s going to look like.

Meanwhile, Jaxson Dart just beat Dallas while completing 23 of 29 passes with three touchdowns. He also ran 11 times for 54 yards.

This number is acting like the Giants didn’t just do that against the Cowboys.

It’s also the Rams’ first game in their own building after opening the season on the other side of the planet. Seven is a lot of points, and it’s a key number when betting the NFL, especially for a team that hasn’t had a normal week of routine yet.

I’m taking the touchdown with the New York Giants. Whether Donald plays or not, I still like the Giants.

Pick: Giants +7

Joe Raineri’s Top 5 NFL Week 2 Picks

• Eagles at Titans Under 39.5
• New York Jets +3.5
• Washington Commanders +4
• Las Vegas Raiders Team Total Under 18.5
• New York Giants +7