Miami Hurricanes Win Total Prediction: Over 10.5 Wins with Full Schedule Breakdown

We’re back with another season win total projection. Today on the docket: the Miami Hurricanes.

This is probably going to be one of our easier game-by-game projections because, apart from the trip to Notre Dame, the regular-season slate is not all that difficult.

So, let’s go game by game, figure out where Miami could potentially slip up and then head over to Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook to put our money where our mouth is.

Miami Should Cruise Through the Beginning of the Schedule

We’ll start with Stanford. It’s a Friday night game in Miami, and Friday night ACC games can get a little tricky once you get into mid-September. This won’t be one of those. We’re giving Miami the win.

We’re probably going to give them a win against Florida A&M, too. Great band, though. That’s going to be a great halftime show at Hard Rock Stadium.

At Wake Forest? Win.

Central Michigan? Nope. Not even Connor Stalions being on the sideline is going to help with that one. Sorry, Central Michigan. You’re probably not winning that football game.

That gets Miami to 4-0 before we finally reach a game where we have to do some real analysis.

• Prediction: Miami starts 4-0, beating Stanford, Florida A&M, Wake Forest, and Central Michigan

Miami at Clemson (Oct. 3)

Spoiler alert: Your boy will be in attendance for this one. I’m excited to go to Fake Death Valley.

There are a lot of unknowns with Clemson. Christopher Vizzina might still be the starting quarterback by this point. Maybe we’re getting the Tait Reynolds show.

If you are getting Reynolds, though, I’d be questioning how bad of a start Clemson got off to. How bad did you lose to LSU? What happened in the other games? If you’re a Clemson fan, you’re hoping that’s not the situation. If you’re a Miami fan, maybe you’re hoping Reynolds is the guy you’re facing.

Clemson has some solid weapons offensively. They return a good chunk of their wide receiver room, and Vizzina showed out a little bit during his last start. But there are so many unknowns, particularly on defense after losing that much talent. That’s the big ticker here.

Miami has so many weapons offensively. The wide receiver room is deep. Mark Fletcher Jr. is really good. Darian Mensah is really good. It’s a tall task for that Clemson defense. From a talent standpoint, on paper, Miami has all of the advantages.

The one weird thing that gets me hung up is Dabo Swinney. Every now and then, Dabo gets one of these games where it’s like, “Look at me. I’m still a great coach. I can still beat teams when we’re not as good. We’re Rocky against Ivan Drago.” This could be one of those, especially with Miami going on the road.

I’m not going to project it, though. I think Miami wins. I don’t think we’re getting the “Nobody gave us a shot” Dabo Swinney postgame press conference.

• Prediction: Miami win (5-0)

Florida State at Miami (Oct. 17)

We already went through this one when we did our Florida State win total prediction, and I believe all of us picked Miami. So let’s stay consistent. Florida State loses this football game.

• Prediction: Miami win (6-0)

Pittsburgh at Miami (Oct. 24)

Next up, Pittsburgh comes to town. Could this be one of those games where Miami suddenly has a weird offensive dud? Maybe they only put up 21 or 24 points and everybody starts wondering what happened. Sure.

But I don’t think Pittsburgh has enough to upset the Hurricanes, especially with this game being played in Miami rather than Pittsburgh. Miami is going to be comfortable at home.

As fun as Pitt can be and as much as it seems like they’re capable of shocking teams – they did it to Georgia Tech last year and ultimately ended its College Football Playoff chances – I don’t think this is the game where they do it to Miami. Hurricanes roll.

• Prediction: Miami win (7-0)

Miami at North Carolina (Oct. 31)

Miami’s second opponent on the schedule that we’ve already seen play is North Carolina.

That UNC defense looked alright. Now, I don’t know how much of that was because TCU looked like poop in a rainy, wet game in Ireland, but those guys were flying around and hitting hard. Dare I say it looked like a Bill Belichick defense.

If North Carolina can bring that kind of performance against Miami at home, maybe it gets interesting. That said, talent wins out again. I think Miami wins this football game by two scores.

The only thing that could potentially dare Miami to lose is what’s sitting immediately behind North Carolina on the schedule. Notre Dame. It would be very easy to start looking ahead and thinking, “We’ve just got to get through North Carolina, then we go play Notre Dame and we’re good, boys.”

I don’t think it happens. Miami takes care of business.

• Prediction: Miami win (8-0)

The Game of the Year: Miami at Notre Dame (Nov. 7)

I want a made-for-TV showdown going into South Bend. That’s what I want. And spoiler alert, we’ll be in attendance for this one as well, credential pending.

This is the major showdown on Miami’s slate. It’s also one of the biggest games on Notre Dame’s schedule. The Irish have BYU and welcome SMU to town a couple of weeks later, but this was the game everybody circled back in February when the schedules were released.

I’m going to remain consistent with the College Football Playoff predictions we released a couple of weeks ago. I had Miami going undefeated. Spoiler alert for the rest of this schedule, I guess. I’ve got Miami beating Notre Dame by a score in South Bend. Give me a late three-point field goal.

Now, we’re not unanimous as a staff here, and my co-hosts like Notre Dame. There’s an argument that this could be Miami’s lone loss of the year. You have to go into South Bend for one of the biggest games of the season, and we’re still going to know relatively little about both teams when they meet.

That’s part of what makes this one so fascinating. It’s going to answer a lot of questions about both teams and probably determine how we view each of them for the rest of the season.

Notre Dame has the home-field advantage. There’s going to be a massive Irish presence, and the Irish have tended to perform fairly well in these big-game situations under Marcus Freeman. It’s the nobodies that sometimes shock them.

So, I understand taking Notre Dame. It’s a toss-up, but I was outvoted. We’ll go with the Irish.

• Prediction: Notre Dame win (8-1)

Don’t Underestimate Miami Fans in South Bend

One other thing about that Notre Dame game: Don’t underestimate the Miami fan base. Say what you want about their home attendance or whatever. We were at those playoff games. Those people showed up.

They had a massive presence when we traveled around during the playoff, and I expect Miami fans to make their presence felt in South Bend. Now, do I think Miami is going to take over Notre Dame Stadium? No.

Notre Dame doesn’t get its stadium taken over very often, and I don’t think the Miami Hurricanes are going to be the ones to do it. But there will be Hurricanes fans in that building.

Duke at Miami (Nov. 14)

Next up is Duke. Dub. Miami should win that game.

Maybe it becomes a vengeance game for Manny Diaz. “You took my quarterback and my receiver. I’m taking your playoff hopes.” Duke will be pulling out all the stops, I’m sure. But at that point, I think there’s simply too much talent on Miami’s side.

We’re all giving the Hurricanes the win.

• Prediction: Miami win (9-1)

Virginia Tech at Miami (Nov. 21)

That brings us into three straight home games to finish the regular season. First up is Virginia Tech.

Sorry, Hokies. Hurricanes roll. But if I had to circle one ACC game on Miami’s schedule that could get a little funky, this might be it.

James Franklin is a good football coach. Yes, he got fired at Penn State. Yes, he struggled in big games. But by all accounts, he’s still a formidable coach. It wouldn’t surprise me if Franklin managed to scheme up a great game plan against Miami and give the Hurricanes a scare.

And we’ve had two straight years of Miami being the most talented team in the ACC and the best team on the field against ACC opponents, and they’ve still found ways to lose two regular-season games. I think they could do it somewhere along the way.

For the sake of picking where that slip-up might happen, Virginia Tech is the one. It could be wrong. It probably is. But it would not shock some if Virginia Tech won this football game.

We’re still picking Miami overall, but there’s at least one vote here for the Hokies pulling the upset. Miami fans, you heard it.

• Prediction: Miami win (10-1)

Boston College at Miami (Nov. 28)

Boston College isn’t doing it. We’re talking about James Franklin potentially giving Miami trouble. Boston College could be playing this game with an interim head coach.

• Prediction: Miami win (11-1)

Miami Win-Total Prediction

Now let’s go over to Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook and put our money where our mouth is.

Miami Over 10.5 Regular-Season Wins (-110)

Hard Rock Bet currently has Miami’s regular-season win total set at 10.5, with the over priced at -110.

I think everybody is expecting Miami to roughshod just about everybody other than Notre Dame based on that line. We’ve got them at 11-1. Let’s put our money where our mouth is.

• Miami over 10.5 wins (-110)

Miami to Record Exactly 11 Regular-Season Wins (+200)

Before we get into some of the Miami exclusives at Hard Rock Bet, I want to play around with the exact win total market. You can pick exactly how many regular-season games a team is going to win.

We just projected Miami at 11. Exactly 11 regular-season wins is +200 at Hard Rock Bet. I like that a little bit more than laying minus odds for the over 10.5. If you already think Miami is going over 10.5, then you think the Hurricanes are either winning 11 games or going undefeated. I like exactly 11 at +200. Let’s put that on the docket, too.

• Miami regular season exact wins – exactly 11 (+200)

The Film Guy’s Miami Futures Picks

Now let’s get into some Miami exclusives at Hard Rock Bet. Here are our futures picks on the Hurricanes:

• Miami over 10.5 regular-season wins (-110)
• Miami to record exactly 11 regular-season wins (+200)
• Miami to win the ACC Championship Game and National Championship (+1300)
• Miami to earn a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff (+275)
• Miami to record 40+ receiving touchdowns in the regular season (+2000)
• Miami to record 1+ rushing touchdown in every regular-season game (+350)

We think Miami is going to win the ACC. We think this is their conference to lose. Now go prove it.

Miami to Win the ACC and National Championship (+1300)

Despite some questions about whether Virginia Tech or somebody else could trip Miami up along the way, we did pick the Hurricanes to win the national championship in our College Football Playoff bracket.

At Hard Rock Bet, you can bet on Miami to win the ACC Championship and the national championship at +1300. If you’re a big Miami fan, you should be confident this season. Why not throw some dough at that one? That’s great juice to say, “Hey, you know what? If it happens, I won’t regret it.”

The media voted overwhelmingly in favor of Miami winning the ACC. So you’re halfway there. Then go win three more football games in the playoff. Boom. +1300. I don’t hate it.

• Miami to win ACC Championship Game and to win National Championship (+1300)

Miami to Earn a First-Round Bye (+275)

Here’s a little more tame option built around the same sentiment. We think Miami is going to win the ACC. We think this is absolutely their conference to lose.

At Hard Rock Bet, Miami is +275 to earn a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. That’s basically saying Miami is going to win the ACC this year. I like that. I’m taking it.

It doesn’t have the same payout as betting Miami to win the national championship, but I think it’s a much more realistic outcome. We’ve talked about how once you get into the playoff, it becomes a crapshoot. I like the idea of Miami getting a bye.

• Miami to get a First-Round Bye in the Playoffs (+275)

Can Miami Throw 40 Touchdown Passes?

We love Darian Mensah on this channel. Amen, boys. We love Malachi Toney on this channel. Amen, boys. We think Cooper Barkate is an NFL player. Amen, boys.

So how about 40 receiving touchdowns at +2000? And it doesn’t have to be those two guys. As a team, we’re essentially saying Mensah and the Miami Hurricanes throw at least 40 touchdown passes this year.

I know it’s a stretch. That’s why we’re getting such good juice. My biggest concern is actually that the schedule might be too easy. Are we just going to be blowing teams out to the point where Miami spends fourth quarters running the football and chewing clock? That could make getting to 40 difficult.

• Miami to record 40+ receiving touchdowns in the regular season (+2000)

A Miami Rushing Touchdown in Every Game (+350)

Here’s another Miami exclusive I like. Hard Rock Bet has Miami to score at least one rushing touchdown in every regular-season game at +350. I like that one. There’s also a +7500 option for Miami to score two rushing touchdowns in every regular-season game, but two is a little risky.

Notre Dame is the game that scares you there. One rushing touchdown, though? That should be more than doable for this Miami team.

Malachi Toney can get some totes. You can build some more wrinkles into the offense. And who is a better red-zone ball carrier in college football right now than Mark Fletcher Jr.? Give me at least one rushing touchdown in every game at +350.

• Miami to record 1+ rushing touchdown in each regular season game (+350)