The Best Week 7 NFL Survivor Picks: Current Ownership, Chalk Plays, Getting Different

It’s decision time once again for the 25,000+ players still alive in Hard Rock Bet’s $2 Million NFL Survivor contest, and Week 7 offers plenty to weigh up.

We entered the week with 25,970 players. After Thursday night’s Patriots-Bears matchup, 25,914 remain in contention for a share of the $2 million prize pool. Among them are 265 players who backed Chicago and have already punched their tickets to Week 8. A bold call, but it paid off!

Below, I’ll break down this week’s schedule, analyze current ownership trends, and share my top NFL Survivor picks for Week 7.

NFL Week 7 Survivor Trends: The Chalk is Fragile

Let’s get this started by talking chalk. Who is the field gravitating towards for Week 7? These are the four most-selected teams as of Friday afternoon in Hard Rock Bet’s $2,000,000 contest, all of whom are catching > 10% ownership.

1. Houston Texans – 16.8% of Week 7 Picks

The 2-4 – and dare we say resurgent – Houston Texans host the 3-2-1 Giants on Sunday at 1 p.m. in what is currently Week 7’s most popular Survivor play. J.J. McCarthy gets the start for New York in place of Jameis Winston, creating a tasty matchup for Houston’s elite defense.

The Texans are a nauseating 10.5-point home favorite – the largest spread of the week by more than four points – and look like a solid Survivor option on paper. After an ugly 0-4 start, back-to-back wins over AFC South rivals Tennessee and Jacksonville have restored some confidence in Houston despite what the records indicate. If you want to go this way, I don’t blame you.

Reasons NOT to Pick Houston

So why wouldn’t you pick Houston? Here’s the case against them:

• J.J. McCarthy will start under center for the Giants in what is one of the biggest unknown’s of the week. There’s no sugarcoating it, his tenure in Minnesota was… bad. This looks like an excellent spot for Houston – especially their defense. But in limited action last week McCarthy balled out, throwing for 243 yards and a score in less than a quarter of play. I guess this is a long way of saying: we don’t know what we’re going to see on Sunday, and playing into an unknown like this can be a risky Survivor proposition.
• The Texans are at home, but they’re coming off of a BIG travel week, having played the Jaguars at Wembley Stadium in London just a week ago. We’ve seen international game hangovers in the past.
• The Giants aren’t a pushover under John Harbaugh. In fact, they’re currently pacing a disappointing NFC East and have everything to play for. There’s talent on both sides of the ball.
• You already used them. More than 17,000 players chose Houston in Week 5 when they played the Titans, so not everyone will have this one available.

2. New York Jets – 14.5% of Week 7 Picks

You know it’s an interesting week when the Jets are a popular play. The 2-4 Jets welcome the 0-5 Dolphins who are coming off of a bye to MetLife Stadium on Sunday and if you’re going to use the Jets, this seems like the time to do it.

The Jets have been quietly OK so far this year despite the 2-4 record. They’ve been competitive in just about evert game so far and while they’ve stacked a few losses, they’ve been against teams that we would generally consider to be pretty good: Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago, and New England… the Dolphins definitely aren’t in that class.

The point spread currently has the Jets as 4.5 point favorites in this one, one of the biggest gaps of the week.

What scares me about the Jets in Week 7

I say this every week but if you’re going to make a run in a Survivor contest, you’re going to need to ride out a few uncomfortable picks. This could be one of them, but here’s why you may NOT want to roll with New York:

• The Dolphins are coming off of a bye so there’s every possibility they are both sharper, and healthier than they were when we last saw them.
• Before the bye the Dolphins weren’t rolling over, either. Their last two defeats came at the hands of the Bengals (7 points) and away to the undefeated Vikings (5 points). If they can stay in striking distance of those teams, the Jets aren’t out of reach.
• The Jets play the Dolphins again in Week 12. Week 12 IS a double week where the remaining players will need to make two selections, so it may be worth leaving the powder dry here for later in the contest.

3. Minnesota Vikings – 11.9% of Week 7 Picks

The third team currently catching more than 10% ownership are the unbeaten Vikings (5-0) coming off the bye against the Indianapolis Colts (2-4). Brian Flores’ defense remains an elite unit, allowing more than sixteen points just once so far in five games. The Vikings offense hasn’t hit its stride yet, but there are signs of improvement. Kyler looked much better in Week 5 against the Saints, throwing for 229 yards and a score while also using his legs for the first time – adding 51 yards on the ground. Further, the Vikings defense is excellent at stopping the run – only the Seahawks have allowed fewer yards per game – which is how Indianapolis would prefer to move the ball.

But generally I think this selection is more about the opposition. We just watched the Colts fold last weekend against the previously winless Titans in their own building and now they travel to Minnesota. They fired their GM on Monday and there are trade rumors surrounding star running back Jonathan Taylor. The vibes in Indy aren’t great.

The Vikings are currently giving six points in this one, making them the second-largest favorite of the week behind the Texans.

Reasons to be concerned with the Vikings in Week 7

I’ll be honest, I don’t see many. If you were really trying to find a weakness with this play you could point out that there’s a LOT of parity in the NFL and teams can look awful one week and surprisingly competent the next. The firing of GM Chris Ballard will have the entire Indianapolis franchise – including players and coaching staff – on alert. If there’s ever a time for a rally, this is it.

4. Denver Broncos – 11.8% of Week 7 Picks

The Broncos (4-2) are catching significant Week 7 ownership ahead of their trip to Arizona to take on the 2-4 Cardinals. The Broncos have won two in a row and the last time we saw them they knocked off the defending Super Bowl Champions… but it was far from a flawless performance. Bo Nix threw for just 107 yards and the Denver offense didn’t score a point in three of the four quarters.

That being said, we have a decent sample of this Broncos team being pretty good. They were seemingly a Bo Nix injury from representing the AFC in the Super Bowl last season, and they’ve already picked up several quality wins this year knocking off the Jaguars, Rams, and Seahawks.

The spread currently has the Broncos at -4.5 point road favorites.

Skepticism over Denver in Week 7

On paper this one looks solid, but if you’re looking for holes in the play you could point to:

• Denver’s ineffectiveness on offense. Ultimately if you’re not scoring points, games get close.
• Arizona are scrappy, winning just last week against the Rams in LA.
• The Broncos are on the road, and I’d prefer to back a home team if at all possible.
• The Broncos host the Dolphins in Week 13, so there is a great target for them later on.

How to Get Different in Week 7 Survivor

If we’re looking further down the board there are a few plays that stand out that are currently catching a sub-10% pick rate.

• The Cleveland Browns (9.2%) against the Tennessee Titans
• The Dallas Cowboys (8.3%) against the Philadelphia Eagles

The Best NFL Survivor Picks: Week 7

Taking into account all of the analysis above, here are my personal favorite picks for Week 7. Full disclosure I gave the Cowboys as my top pick in Week 5, and the Rams and Colts as my two favorite plays last week so we’re not exactly hot here. But this is how I see it:

1. The Minnesota Vikings: Solid team that looks to be improving. Playing at home against an opponent that’s struggling. Plus you’re getting an ownership discount over the two most-selected teams in the Texans and Jets.
2. The Dallas Cowboys: I don’t expect the Eagles to roll over, but this team has been depleted. If the Cowboys are going to make a run, it needs to start now. I don’t like that it’s on the road, but I like the spot for Dallas.
3. New York Jets: While I don’t love letting my Survivor fate ride on the Jets, at some point things do get uncomfortable. The set up is great for New York, they’ve looked competent so far this season and Miami at home is one of the best spots you’ll see.

Current Week 7 NFL Survivor Ownership Stats

Of players that have made a pick so far for Week 7, here’s where they’re going:

• Houston Texans: 16.8%
• New York Jets: 14.6%
• Minnesota Vikings: 11.9%
• Denver Broncos: 11.8%
• Cleveland Browns: 9.2%
• Dallas Cowboys: 8.3%
• San Francisco 49ers: 8.3%
• Carolina Panthers: 6.3%
• Los Angeles Rams: 4.3%
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 1.9%
• Chicago Bears: 1.8%
• Detroit Lions: 1.3%
• Kansas City Chiefs: 0.8%
• Miami Dolphins: 0.5%
• New England Patriots: 0.4%
• Cincinnati Bengals: 0.4%
• Tennessee Titans: 0.3%
• New Orleans Saints: 0.2%
• Baltimore Ravens: 0.2%
• Green Bay Packers: 0.2%
• Seattle Seahawks: 0.2%
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.1%
• Las Vegas Raiders: 0.1%
• Atlanta Falcons: 0.1%
• Indianapolis Colts: 0.1%
• Philadelphia Eagles: 0.1%
• New York Giants: 0.1%
• Arizona Cardinals: 0.0%

Make Your Selection Today

If you’re going to go down, go down swinging. With every remaining entry valued around $77, the worst thing you can do is forget to submit a pick. Head over to the Hard Rock Bet app today and submit your Week 7 play.

I’ll see you in Week 8 – good luck!