BettingPros PGA Show: 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks & Predictions

Charles Schwab Challenge Preview

The 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge is going to have a full field of 133 players. A lot of the big names are skipping this one. Local boys Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth, who played in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last week, are sitting out this week.

The Charles Schwab Challenge will be played at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, which has been hosting a PGA Tour event every year since 1946.

The players who entered the Byron Nelson last week don’t have very far to go since that event was held in the Dallas suburbs. Colonial is a par 70 measuring 7,289 yards. Distance off the tee definitely takes a backseat to accuracy at Colonial. Players want to give themselves the best possible angle of attack with their approach shots on this course.

Colonial has narrow, tree-lined fairways. Some of the par 4s and par 5s are doglegs, and players are going to be hitting into smaller-than-average bentgrass greens. The greens at Colonial are typically pretty firm. They run fast, so it’s not going to be easy to hit fairways or greens this week. Accuracy off the tee and touch on the greens are going to be very important.

There are only two par 5s on the entire course. One is the 581-yard opening hole. If you want to score at Colonial, you best birdie at least one of the first two holes. The second hole is a short par 4. Then you run into the Horrible Horseshoe: holes 3, 4, and 5 – three of the four toughest holes at Colonial.

The 3rd and 5th holes are long par 4s measuring 475 and 476 yards. The fourth hole is a brutish 248-yard par 3. Yikes. I’d be hitting driver. I’d be hitting at least a two-iron hybrid. Probably a three-wood, though.

Bottom line: Colonial and TPC Craig Ranch are both shorter-than-average Texas courses, but they are nothing alike. Colonial should be a much tougher test than Craig Ranch was.

Ben Griffin won the Charles Schwab Challenge last year. He finished 12-under par and beat Matti Schmid by one stroke. Davis Riley was a runaway winner here in 2024, finishing 14-under par to win by five. Emiliano Grillo won the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2023, finishing 8-under par and beating Adam Schenk in a playoff. Sam Burns won this tournament in 2022. He was 9-under par and beat Scottie Scheffler in a playoff.

It’s going to be hot in Texas this week. Temperatures are expected to top out in the low 90s for the first two days of the tournament. It’ll be in the 80s on the weekend.

The forecast looks mostly dry, with some thunderstorm possibilities on Sunday. Wind should be light to moderate all four days.

Bo McBrayer on Colonial Country Club

It’s just a basic formula of keeping the ball in the short grass.

If you miss the fairways here, you’re going to be out of position where you won’t be able to hold the greens with enough spin if you’re playing out of the rough. These are the third-most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour at 27 yards average width. That means very concise tee shots are going to be required so that you can attack these pins, which are going to be tucked on small greens that run fast.

It’s just a simple test of ball striking. And if you can solve that formula of finding the fairway and then attacking those pin placements from the fairway, you can make birdies here. There’s not going to be that many of them, but you can score well.

But the guys who can’t find the fairways, and then also can’t get the ball close to the hole, they’re going to be trying to avoid bogeys and double bogeys. Those stats come into play this week because the challenge is there. It’s going to test every bit of ball striking that each one of these players has.

I’m going to be looking for the guys who, A, can get off the tee in good position, and then B, can hit the ball close from between 125 and 200 yards because 82% of the approach shots will be sub-200 yards. That’s going to be a big thing – just how accurate are you on approach, and can you put yourself in position to execute that?

Five-under par through two rounds at the Byron Nelson did not get you into the weekend. Five-under through two rounds here, you’re the leader.

You’re in the hunt, definitely. That’s two very good rounds of golf here.