Happy Monday! Let’s start the week off with MLB home run picks for July 27 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. There are some bad pitchers and hot weather today, which is typically a recipe for success. Here we go.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, July 27
-
Brandon Lowe +350 (Diamondbacks at Pirates – PNC Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)
-
James Wood +230 (Blue Jays at Nationals – Nationals Park – 6:45 p.m. ET)
-
Paul Goldschmidt +400 (Yankees at White Sox – Rate Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Brandon Lowe
We’ll start in Pittsburgh at PNC Park, where the Pirates host the Diamondbacks at 6:40 p.m. ET. Merrill Kelly is set to take the bump for Arizona, and it’s clear Father Time has caught up with the 37-year-old, which makes me feel plenty old as a 36-year-old myself.
Kelly ranks in just the 2nd percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 9th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and he’s keeping the ball on the ground at a below-average clip, per Baseball Savant.
He owns an ugly 5.12 ERA with an even uglier 7.25 expected ERA, which tells us he probably should have fared even worse this season.
Lefties have really gotten to Kelly — 14 of his 22 home runs allowed have come against left-handed hitters, who are slugging .537 against him. He also carries one of the highest expected ISOs allowed to lefties in the league at .300.
This is screaming Brandon Lowe. Lowe has been an awesome pickup for the Pirates, sporting a .270 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and if you extend the sample back to the start of 2025, it’s right in the same ballpark.
There’s a big track record of Lowe mashing righties, and now he draws a pitcher who gives up a ton of power to left-handed hitters. It’s supposed to be just north of 80 degrees in Pittsburgh at first pitch with a slight breeze blowing out to left-center, so conditions are good. I think the +350 odds at Hard Rock Bet for Lowe to go deep are a little generous today.
MLB Home Run Pick: James Wood
Next, we’ll head to the nation’s capital for a 6:45 p.m. ET bout between the Nationals and Blue Jays. It feels dirty picking on another elder statesman in Max Scherzer.
The future Hall of Famer makes his return from a lengthy IL stint, and it’s also his 42nd birthday, so I feel extra bad here. But the truth is, lefties have been absolutely mashing him the past two years.
Last season, in a big sample, Scherzer allowed a .289 ISO to left-handed batters, and his fastball was especially bad; he threw it roughly 50% of the time and lefties posted a ridiculous .343 expected ISO against it.
He doesn’t have a huge sample this year, but in the limited action he’s had, it’s the same old story — oodles of left-handed power. That’s trouble, because Washington’s lineup has been unbelievable this season and their lefties have been fantastic.
James Wood owns a .300 ISO against right-handed pitching, and his advanced metrics are absurd. He has 30 home runs this year and literally ranks in the 100th percentile in expected slugging, expected wOBA, average exit velocity, and barrel rate, per Baseball Savant, while just missing the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate.
If Scherzer had enough innings to qualify, he’d rank near the very bottom of the league in barrel rate and ground-ball rate allowed. This is a great matchup for a left-handed slugger, and Wood is arguably the best healthy hitter in baseball right now.
We can grab him at +230 on Hard Rock Bet, and CJ Abrams is very live to go deep today as well. Wood’s home run prop is my favorite one on the slate.
MLB Home Run Pick: Paul Goldschmidt
Next, we’ll roll to Chicago as the White Sox host the Yankees at 7:40 p.m. ET at Rate Field.
Highly-touted prospect Noah Schultz is projected to take the bump, and he’s had a rough transition to the bigs with a 6.04 ERA that’s right in line with his expected mark. He gives up a ton of barrels, doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, and surrenders a decent amount of loud contact.
The strikeout stuff hasn’t carried over either — he’s fanned just 49 hitters in 56.2 MLB innings this year. That’s wild for a guy who plowed through the minors with a 2.98 ERA and 263 strikeouts across 211 innings. The transition has simply been tougher than most imagined.
The rook has only allowed nine home runs this season, but eight have come against right-handed hitters, who own a modest .471 slugging against him. It’ll be just north of 80 degrees in Chicago with a chance of some wind helping out to left, depending on the direction at first pitch.
Either way, we’re rolling with Paul Goldschmidt. Clearly I’m picking on the old guys in this column today, but it looks like Goldy has at least one more good season in the tank, especially against lefties.
Goldy has been demolishing southpaws with a ridiculous .324 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2026. He’s logged nine home runs in just 111 at-bats against them, good for a .649 slugging, to go with 16 homers overall.
Goldschmidt is probably my least favorite of the three picks, but the +400 odds reflect that and offer really good value given how he’s crushing lefties and how much Schultz has struggled at the MLB level.
Long term, though, Schultz is going to be dynamite, so keep an eye on him.
MLB Home Run Notes for Monday, July 27
A few extra things to keep in mind for your home run picks today:
-
Scorcher in St. Louis. The best hitting environment might be in STL. It’s going to be pushing 100 degrees at Busch Stadium, so that ball is absolutely going to be flying.
-
Sacramento sizzle. An honorable mention (call it 1B) is Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, where the A’s host the Red Sox with a slight breeze blowing out to center and temps pushing 90. Great environment for long balls.
-
Nationals’ bullpen. Washington’s pen has given up a whopping 75 home runs this season, by far the most in baseball.
-
A’s bullpen. If you’re hunting hitters in that Sutter Health Park game, you’re in luck. The A’s bullpen has surrendered 65 home runs, the second-most in baseball.
-
Early game alert. There’s one early game on the slate as the Mariners visit the Rangers at Globe Life Field at 2:35 p.m. ET, so make your bets and set your lineups accordingly.
Good luck Monday. Let’s start the week with some winners!
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. In AZ, OH, & VA, call 1-800-MY-RESET.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (CO, IL, MI, NJ, TN)
