On Tilt: Joe Raineri’s Top 5 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Week 1

The NFL is back, so let’s talk about my top five plays for Week 1.

These can all be found at the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app. Let’s dive into it.

Buccaneers at Bengals: Under 50.5

Under Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay is 7-1 to the Under on the road during the first two weeks of a season. Not 7-1 straight up, 7-1 to the Under. The two biggest numbers during that run were 49.5 and 51.5, and those games finished 19-3 and 20-16.

This one is sitting at 50.5 at Hard Rock Bet, and I think people have it backwards when it comes to the Buccaneers.

Everybody remembers Tampa Bay last season, when its games were crazy early on and hit a ton of Overs. But those games were in Tampa in September, where the heat pretty much slow-roasts every visiting defense until there’s nothing left of it. Everybody wilts in that environment.

The problem for Tampa Bay is that the heat does not travel.

The Buccaneers are bringing their defense to Cincinnati and leaving behind the one thing that was truly inflating the scores in those games.

For Cincinnati, Joe Burrow has averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt in Week 1 over the last three years. Bowles blitzes more than anybody in Week 1. He loves bringing the heat. And Cincinnati wants Burrow under center after spending the last two years playing out of the shotgun.

Cincinnati at home can score on anybody. The bottom line, though, is that this is the same Tampa Bay defense without the sauna.

50.5 is a lot of points in Week 1. I’m all about the Under in this matchup.

Pick: Buccaneers/Bengals Under 50.5

Bills at Texans: Texans ML

This game opened with Houston getting two points at Hard Rock Bet. The Texans are now getting around 1.5, with the number bouncing back and forth but staying mostly around there.

There’s no injury news, no major roster move and nothing else that would lead me to expect this line to move dramatically between now and kickoff. I think the market believes these two teams are much closer than a lot of people realize.

Is Buffalo the better football team? Maybe. But the market is telling us that on a neutral field, this is pretty much a pick’em game.

Buffalo has to win by two on the road in Week 1 if we’re going to cash a ticket laying the 1.5. I wouldn’t do it. And rather than take the 1.5 with Houston, I’m going straight to the Texans moneyline at Hard Rock Bet. This is a great litmus test for both teams.

Josh Allen is 0-4 against Houston on the road in his career, and he’s going to have to prove to me that he can actually win this game.

Pick: Texans ML

Jets at Titans: Under 39.5

Four teams had the worst offenses in football last season, and two of them are playing each other Sunday.

The Jets were the worst team in the league by far, getting outscored by close to 12 points per game against a schedule that was about half a point easier than average. And neither one of these teams fixed the things that were actually broken, at least not to a great degree.

Cam Ward was sacked 55 times as a rookie, and Tennessee still can’t protect him. That puts the Titans in obvious passing situations behind an offensive line that, to me, simply cannot hold up.

The Jets went out and added some run stoppers, including T’Vondre Sweat in the middle of the defense. They also hired Frank Reich to run the offense and are building a game plan around not asking Geno Smith to throw it 40 times a game, because that would be a disaster.

Let me be careful here: this is not about a great Jets defense. New York had only four takeaways all of last season. Four. The Jets had zero interceptions, which, if we’re being honest, is kind of an achievement when you think about it.

So this isn’t a good defense beating up on a bad offense, and we certainly don’t have two great defenses beating up on two really good offenses. This is two bad offenses beating themselves, in all likelihood.

The number currently sits at 39.5 at Hard Rock Bet, and I’m on the Under. Two teams that cannot move the ball taking turns not moving the ball leads me to an Under.

Pick: Jets/Titans Under 39.5

Packers at Vikings: Vikings -2

Josh Jacobs isn’t playing in this game, and he’s probably not playing for a while. We all know this. He’s on the commissioner exempt list, and there is no indication Green Bay is getting him back anytime soon. Micah Parsons is also on the reserve/PUP list.

So Green Bay is walking into Minnesota without its leading rusher or its best pass rusher, and we’re supposed to treat this like a coin-flip game?

Something doesn’t smell right here.

The part I keep coming back to is the line movement. In the middle of July, Green Bay was a 1.5-point favorite at Hard Rock Bet. Now I’m looking at the number and Minnesota is laying two.

That’s a 3.5-point swing.

It went through zero, and that’s not a number simply getting nudged. That’s a number crossing pick’em and changing its mind about which of these two teams is better. We went from Green Bay being the better team to Minnesota being favored at home.

Minnesota isn’t a scary football team, I’ll tell you that. But with the Vikings laying two at home against a Packers team that gives me a ton of question marks, I’ll take the home team.

I’ll take the Vikings and Kyler Murray here. The better roster is wearing purple right now.

Pick: Vikings -2

Broncos at Chiefs: Broncos +2.5

Now we get to my favorite play.

I’m taking the points with Denver on Monday night. I think it’s the easiest number on the board to look at.

Denver went 14-3 last season, won the AFC West, earned the No. 1 seed in the conference and barely lost the AFC Championship Game, 10-7.

Kansas City went 6-11 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

So we essentially have pretty much the same Denver team – a team that went 14-3 – getting points against a team that went 6-11.

I know why.

Because it’s Monday night. It’s at Arrowhead. It’s Kansas City. And everybody is still pricing a version of the Chiefs that has not existed for a long time.

They obviously get Patrick Mahomes back, and it looks like he’s going to go. Bo Nix looks like he’s going to go as well for Denver. That building has a reputation, but I’m not buying this Kansas City roster just yet.

I’ll be gentle, but I don’t think Denver is going to be intimidated at all. I like Denver’s defense better.

And by the way, the last six times these teams have played, every one of those games has gone Under the total. Five of them didn’t even reach 40 points. That tells you everything you need to know.

This has the makings of 45 minutes of ugliness followed by a field goal deciding it. And that’s exactly the type of game where getting 2.5 points at Hard Rock Bet matters more than anything else.

So yeah, call me crazy. I’m fading Patrick Mahomes. I’m backing the Broncos, taking the 2.5, and I’ll do it with a smile.

Pick: Broncos +2.5

Joe Raineri’s Top 5 NFL Week 1 Picks

• Buccaneers at Bengals Under 50.5
• Houston Texans ML
• Jets at Titans Under 39.5
• Minnesota Vikings -2
• Denver Broncos +2.5