Happy Thursday! We’re digging into the NFL touchdown picks for Packers vs. Panthers on Thursday Night Football.
Carolina’s lead running back gets a matchup that fits the offense’s preferred rushing concepts. One of its tight ends has quietly taken on more playing time. And on the Green Bay side, I’m backing a receiver whose opportunities have been much more encouraging than some of the actual plays left on the field.
Let’s get into my best touchdown bets for Thursday, October 29, at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best Panthers vs. Packers Touchdown Props for TNF
- Chuba Hubbard -115 Anytime TD
- Tommy Tremble +400 Anytime TD
- Matthew Golden +165 Anytime TD
All referenced odds are subject to change.
TNF Touchdown Pick: Chuba Hubbard (-115)
Another season, another heavy workload for Chuba Hubbard.
Jonathon Brooks has barely played in 2026, leaving Hubbard to handle the workhorse role again. And while I usually prefer shopping for plus-money touchdown prices, this is a spot where I can get behind laying a little juice.
The usage is exactly what we want from a lead back.
Hubbard has played 14 of Carolina’s 17 offensive snaps inside the 5-yard line and nearly 72% of the snaps inside the 10. When the Panthers get close, he is consistently part of the personnel package.
That doesn’t guarantee a handoff, but it certainly beats backing a running back who disappears when his team reaches the goal line.
The matchup makes the price more appealing.
Carolina likes to use zone-run concepts, and Green Bay has struggled badly against them. The Packers are allowing well over five yards per carry on those runs, along with a very high success rate. That’s a useful fit between what the Panthers want to do and what their opponent has had trouble stopping.
We don’t need Carolina to reinvent its rushing attack. If the Panthers can execute their usual approach, Hubbard should have opportunities to move the ball and potentially finish a drive.
At -115, I think the price is fair for a bell cow with this kind of close-range participation in a favorable schematic matchup.
Thursday TD Prediction: Tommy Tremble (+400)
Now, for the less comfortable click.
Tommy Tremble at +400 isn’t a prediction that he suddenly becomes the centerpiece of Carolina’s passing game. It is a price play on a tight end whose involvement has become more interesting.
Over the last two weeks, Tremble has outsnapped Darren Waller by a convincing 60%-40% margin.
That is meaningful. If we are taking a shot on a secondary receiving option, I would prefer one whose playing time is moving in the right direction.
Tremble rewarded Carolina with two touchdowns against Philadelphia two weeks ago, both coming in the red zone. He also has 20 targets this season, so this is not a player who spends every passing play blocking while everyone else runs routes.
There is at least some evidence that Bryce Young is comfortable looking for him between the numbers when the Panthers have a chance to score.
Green Bay’s defensive looks could help too.
The Packers play plenty of two-high safety coverage, which can create opportunities for tight ends working intermediate routes through the middle of the field.
That’s not a promise of easy completions, and I am not chasing Tremble simply because he had a two-touchdown game. The increased snap share and the coverage matchup give us reasons to consider him beyond that one result.
At +400, I’m interested in a smaller wager.
TNF TD Best Bet: Matthew Golden (+165)
Watching Matthew Golden has required a little patience.
It feels like every time Jordan Love launches one in his direction, the ball sails several yards over his head, or Golden drops a pass.
Frustrating? Absolutely. Enough to make me ignore the opportunity? Never.
Golden’s underlying numbers remain excellent, and they make a strong case that he is Green Bay’s 1A receiving option compared to Christian Watson rather than the other way around.
He owns a 24% target share compared with Watson’s 19%. Golden also has a 39% air-yard share, ahead of Watson at 31%. The more specific opportunities tell a similar story. Golden has a whopping 13 targets inside the 20-yard line. Watson has seven. Golden has also seen 18 deep targets compared with Watson’s 12.
That gives us two useful paths: opportunities close to the end zone and chances to score from farther out.
Carolina’s coverage tendencies add to the appeal. The Panthers play plenty of single-high coverage, which should give Green Bay opportunities to attack downfield.
Watson can absolutely take advantage of those looks too. This is not an argument that he is a bad bet or incapable of having the bigger game.
But Golden has the stronger usage profile across several important categories, and we are getting the better touchdown price.
At +165, I’ll live with some of the recent frustration and back the opportunity. The numbers keep pointing toward Golden, and I am not ready to look away.
Good luck with all of your TNF touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props – keep the speculative plays appropriately sized!
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. In AZ, OH, & VA, call 1-800-MY-RESET.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (CO, IL, MI, NJ, TN)
