Happy Sunday! We’re ready to rock and roll for Week 9, and there are a handful of interesting touchdown props on the board.
For this week’s NFL touchdown betting card, I’m following a couple of interesting backfield developments, backing a few stars in favorable situations, and saving a very small wager for a rookie whose opportunity could change.
Here’s where I’m putting my attention for Week 9 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best Week 9 Anytime Touchdown Bets
- Jonah Coleman +100 Anytime TD
- Zach Charbonnet +130 Anytime TD
- Josh Allen -125 Anytime TD
- Seth McGowan +230 Anytime TD
All referenced odds are subject to change.
Jonah Coleman Anytime Touchdown (+100)
The most interesting number from Denver’s backfield last week wasn’t a rushing total.
It was 10. That’s how many snaps the Broncos ran inside the 10-yard line, and Jonah Coleman was on the field for every one of them.
For a rookie trying to establish himself, that’s a pretty meaningful vote of confidence. Denver wasn’t pulling him out when a drive reached the area where one touch could become six points.
Now, let’s not turn one game into a permanent depth-chart declaration. RJ Harvey’s availability matters, and Coleman playing those snaps doesn’t mean he’s been promised every short-yardage carry.
Still, I’d rather acknowledge the change than wait until we have a month of evidence and a much less appealing price.
At even money, we’re betting that Denver continues giving Coleman a chance to finish drives. He doesn’t need to own the entire backfield for that to work.
If last week’s close-range participation becomes the norm, +100 could look pretty generous before long. I’m coming back for another round.
Zach Charbonnet Anytime Touchdown (+130)
It’s difficult to vulture a goal-line touchdown when your offense never reaches the goal line.
Seattle didn’t run a single play inside Chicago’s 5-yard line last week. So if you were waiting to see exactly how the Seahawks would use Zach Charbonnet down there, you’re still waiting.
I’m willing to make the bet before we get the answer.
Seattle is an 8.5-point favorite against Arizona, giving us a reasonable scenario where the Seahawks can play from ahead and put their backfield to work.
And we’ve already seen what this coaching staff thinks of Charbonnet when there’s a drive to finish.
Last season, he consistently took valuable work inside the 5 and 10, even with Kenneth Walker running at an elite level. Seattle had no issue letting Charbonnet handle those opportunities.
That history doesn’t guarantee a repeat. But Jadarian Price didn’t do much last week to make me abandon the idea, either.
This isn’t a bet on Charbonnet playing every down. It’s a bet on Seattle returning to a familiar option when the field gets short.
At +130, I’d rather get involved now than wait for a goal-line touchdown to announce his role to everyone else.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-125)
Brian Flores is going to make Josh Allen move.
Whether that movement ends in a sack, a throw, or Allen taking off is the interesting part.
Minnesota is blitzing at roughly a 74% rate, so Buffalo’s quarterback should have plenty of decisions to make against pressure. My read is that we’ll see him extending plays and looking for escape routes.
When Allen finds one, he’s not exactly a gentle assignment for the next defender.
That gives us a rushing path beyond Buffalo simply calling his number. A pass play can break down and become an Allen run without the defense getting much warning.
We also still have the obvious possibility: Buffalo gets to the doorstep, lines up its bulldozer, and asks him to push across the pylon.
Allen’s ability to create with his legs means Minnesota’s aggression can produce opportunities as well as problems. At -125, I’m backing the combination of his usual rushing role and the possibility of extra improvisation against Flores.
Seth McGowan Anytime Touchdown (+230)
This last one comes with a very different level of conviction.
Seth McGowan is my smallest wager of the week – just a tiny sprinkle.
He played 23% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps last week and none inside the 10-yard line. If you’re looking for an established goal-line role, I don’t have one to show you.
What I do have is a few possible ways his work could increase.
Jonathan Taylor has been involved in trade speculation, and the Colts have been selling off pieces. Indianapolis could decide to lighten his workload rather than keep exposing him to contact.
There’s also the game itself. If Dallas takes control, McGowan could pick up additional work late. And a touchdown from outside the 10 would save us from needing any change in the short-yardage rotation.
Good luck with all of your Week 9 touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props. A speculative angle should come with a speculative-sized stake.
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