NFL Week 9 Best Bets, Picks & Predictions with Joe Raineri

We’re heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, and I’ve got my top five plays of the weekend coming up.

We’ve got an international matchup in Madrid to kick things off, a couple of road underdogs I like, and a team total in the NFC West that has my attention.

Let’s dive into the games.

Falcons vs. Bengals: Falcons +3

Our first stop is Madrid on Sunday morning, where the Atlanta Falcons take on the Cincinnati Bengals.

Hard Rock Bet has Cincinnati listed as a three-point favorite, with the total sitting at 53.

Now, the outdoor numbers for Michael Penix Jr. are real. He’s averaging just 5.9 yards per pass play outdoors, and eight of his 11 career interceptions have come outside.

But the conditions in Madrid look pretty good for Sunday, unlike what Penix had to deal with last weekend in Tampa Bay. For the season, he’s still averaging around seven yards per pass play.

And then there’s Bijan Robinson, who’s leading the league in rushing at 5.2 yards per carry.

The bottom line is that Atlanta has a better-than-average offense that just had one absolutely horrific afternoon in the rain.

Cincinnati’s offense is pretty darn good, too. Joe Burrow has thrown four touchdown passes in three straight games, and that unit is one of the best in football. It certainly has the edge against Atlanta’s defense.

But the Bengals’ defense could be a problem. I still rank them below average when you consider who they’ve played, including several offenses that are considerably worse than average and a Baltimore Ravens team without Lamar Jackson.

Atlanta is also getting edge rusher James Pearce Jr. back from his eight-game suspension. I’m guessing he’ll be on a bit of a snap count, but his return certainly doesn’t hurt.

And here’s something else to consider. Teams coming off a shutout loss, like the Falcons are this week, went 7-0 against the spread last season.

I’m getting three points with Atlanta at Hard Rock Bet, and that looks pretty good to me.

I’ll take the Falcons. And you know what? You might want to sprinkle a little something on the moneyline, because it wouldn’t shock me if Atlanta wins this game outright.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3

Rams at Commanders: Commanders +5

The Rams are 4-4, but from the line of scrimmage, they’ve actually been the second-best team in football.

The problem is that somebody eventually has to kick the ball for them, and that’s where everything starts to go wrong.

Special teams have cost the Rams around 3.5 points per game this season. And this isn’t just a bad year. It’s been a bad era.

Go back to 2022, and over 76 regular-season games, the Rams have given away an average of 1.5 points per game on special teams.

It is gross.

Washington, meanwhile, has been well above average on special teams every season under Dan Quinn.

Now, I’ll give you the rest. The Rams are good on both sides of the ball, and Washington’s defense isn’t great. I’ve got the Commanders rated about four to 4.5 points per game worse than average defensively.

But Jayden Daniels doesn’t give the football away.

He hasn’t thrown an interception this season, and he’s thrown just three on 333 passes since the start of last year.

Yes, Terry McLaurin is out, so the passing game hasn’t been pretty. But Daniels has been running for 9.5 yards per carry instead.

I don’t think that’s sustainable, but he does average around 6.6 yards per carry for his career.

And the Rams’ secondary has suddenly gotten real thin.

Jaylen Watson is done for the season, while Trent McDuffie hasn’t practiced all week.

When I account for everything, my numbers make the Rams a 3.5-point favorite.

Hard Rock Bet is giving me five points with Washington, so I’m going to take the Commanders and the points this weekend.

Pick: Washington Commanders +5

Browns at Saints: Browns +3

Here’s my question: How is a 2-5 team favored by three points against a 5-3 team?

I know the answer. Deshaun Watson is in the concussion protocol, and Shedeur Sanders could be taking over at quarterback.

Now, Sanders was rough as a rookie, to say the least. He averaged 5.3 yards per pass play and threw 10 interceptions in eight games.

But I expect him to be a lot better in year two.

Even then, I think the quarterback change costs Cleveland a couple of points in the passing game, but Sanders gets some of that back with his legs. Watson has given the Browns almost nothing as a runner.

Add it all up, and the quarterback change is worth maybe a little more than a point to me.

Here’s what matters more.

The Saints have one of the worst defenses in football. I’ve got them rated about three points per game worse than average, while Cleveland’s defense is better than average.

So even with Sanders at quarterback, I still have the Browns as the better team by more than three points.

And home-field advantage? It’s worth less than two points this season, folks. Hate to break it to everybody.

There’s also an interesting angle here involving Sanders and New Orleans.

Remember, the Saints passed on Sanders in the draft and selected Tyler Shough three rounds earlier. I’m sure nobody in Cleveland has mentioned that to Shedeur at all this week.

And this Browns team has already shown us how it can respond after getting embarrassed.

Back in Week 1, Cleveland got smoked by Jacksonville, losing by 24 points. The following week, the Browns went to Tampa Bay as an 8.5-point underdog and won outright.

Last week, Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 27-6.

I’m sensing a pattern here.

I’m on Cleveland, and I might sprinkle a little something on the moneyline here as well.

Pick: Cleveland Browns +3

Raiders at 49ers: 49ers -9

The Raiders have four wins this season. The teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 5-24.

They’ve beaten nobody, and somehow they’ve managed to do it four times already.

Las Vegas is also plus-five in turnover margin, and six of its eight games have been played indoors. That’s a ton of help for this team.

But this is about the worst matchup imaginable for how the Raiders like to play.

They want to throw the football to Brock Bowers and their tight ends, targeting that position almost 16 times per game.

The problem is that San Francisco allows just 5.5 yards per target to tight ends, the third-best mark in football.

The one soft spot in the 49ers’ defense is against slot receivers. But guess what? The Raiders hardly ever throw to the slot.

In fact, they’re targeting slot receivers at about half the league average.

Running the football isn’t going to work, either.

Las Vegas ranks second-to-last in the NFL at around three yards per carry, and now the Raiders are facing a defense that allows just 3.5 yards per rush.

As for San Francisco, the 49ers just lost to Atlanta despite putting up 400 yards of offense and averaging 6.2 yards per play.

And they did that with Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and three other receivers unavailable, while Christian McCaffrey missed half the game.

Brock Purdy doesn’t seem to care who’s playing and who’s not. He’s averaging 9.4 yards per target, regardless of who he’s throwing to.

And George Kittle is right there at 9.2 yards per target himself.

The 49ers are also coming off a bye week, with Demarcus Robinson expected back and Nick Bosa potentially returning as well.

I make this game San Francisco by somewhere between 12.5 and 13 points.

I’m laying the points with San Francisco.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -9

Cardinals at Seahawks: Cardinals Team Total Under 14.5

My final play involves a game that’s been all over the board this week, with the Arizona Cardinals taking on the Seattle Seahawks.

Hard Rock Bet had Seattle as high as an 11.5-point favorite earlier in the week, but that number has dropped to 8.5 now that Sam Darnold is out and Drew Lock is likely to start at quarterback.

The game total has also dropped from an opening number of 43.5 to 39.

But I want to focus on Arizona’s offense.

Let’s start by doing a roll call of the Cardinals’ available wide receivers.

Marvin Harrison Jr.? Nope. Traded.

Kendrick Bourne, their best target? Nope. He’s hurt.

How about Jalen Brooks, their No. 4 receiver? He’s hurt, too.

So who’s next? Reggie Virgil, who has two catches for 29 yards this season.

This isn’t a depth chart. It’s a missing person’s report.

Arizona is going to want to do what it always does, which means getting the football to Trey McBride.

He’s averaging 10.8 targets per game and 6.3 yards per target, followed by Michael Wilson, who’s seen 81 targets at six yards per target.

The problem is that Seattle ranks fifth in football against tight ends and first against wide receivers.

We already saw what happened when these teams played back in Week 2.

McBride and Wilson combined for just 59 yards on 17 targets, and Arizona scored seven points in that game.

Now, Gardner Minshew is the Cardinals’ quarterback after coming off the bench last week and beating Dallas.

Woohoo.

He’s a small upgrade over Jacoby Brissett, but Arizona’s game plan isn’t changing.

Are they going to run the football instead?

Well, Tyler Allgeier just ran for 147 yards against Dallas, but he’s a career 4.3-yard-per-carry running back. Now he’s going up against a Seattle defense allowing just 3.5 yards per carry this season.

And yes, Seattle just gave up 34 points to Chicago, but let’s not overreact.

This is still the second-best defense in football, and I expect that unit to be in a very foul mood for this game.

I’m taking Arizona’s Under.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals Team Total Under 14.5

NFL Week 9 Best Bets

• Atlanta Falcons +3
• Washington Commanders +5
• Cleveland Browns +3
• San Francisco 49ers -9
• Arizona Cardinals Team Total Under 14.5