MLB Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best HR Bets for Friday Night (July 17)

We’re finally back with a full slate of baseball for Friday, July 17, and we’ve got some awesome pitching matchups on tap. That does make it a little tougher to hunt home run picks today, but a few spots are popping off the page. Let’s dive into my best home run bets on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, July 17

• Ben Rice +300 (Dodgers at Yankees – Yankee Stadium – 7:05 p.m. ET)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +250 (Twins at Cubs – Wrigley Field – 8:05 p.m. ET)
• Hunter Goodman +240 (Reds at Rockies – Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)

All referenced mlb odds are subject to change.

Best Home Run Bet Today: Ben Rice +300

We’ll start in the Bronx with a matchup just about everyone in the baseball world will be tuned in for, as the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the New York Yankees at 7:05 p.m. ET.

It’s projected to be in the mid-80s, so it’ll be hot and the ball should carry a little more than usual — and you’ve got to love that short porch in right field on a night like this.

Roki Sasaki is set to take the bump for the Dodgers, sporting an ugly 5.33 ERA. He’s been a bit unlucky, and the chase/whiff stuff is good, but when hitters make contact, it’s very loud.

According to Baseball Savant, Sasaki ranks in just the 3rd percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and he’s already given up 19 home runs this season. He’s allowing a .213 ISO to left-handed hitters, and this matchup is screaming Ben Rice.

We saw Rice have a bit of a blunder in the Home Run Derby, but he picked up a hit in the All-Star Game and was absolutely deserving of that All-Star nod. He’s turning into an elite hitter in Major League Baseball; his advanced metrics are through the roof and just about flawless under the hood.

Rice is listed at +300 on Hard Rock Bet, and honestly, I think that’s a steal. The Dodgers’ bullpen is pretty good, but Rice is arguably a top-five hitter in baseball right now, and I’m not sure what the counterargument would be.

Top MLB Home Run Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong +210

Next we’ll head to Wrigley Field in Chicago, where the Cubs host the Minnesota Twins at 8:05 p.m. ET.

It’s going to be in the mid-80s here as well, and the early forecast calls for a little bit of wind blowing out toward center field — a nice subtle boost in one of the most weather-sensitive parks in baseball.

Bailey Ober is set to take the mound for Minnesota, and he has a strange profile. He’s given up 13 home runs this year, but 10 have come against left-handed hitters. He doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact overall, but he ranks just in the 9th percentile in ground-ball rate and 20th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and he doesn’t miss many bats.

Lefties have given him problems; they’re slugging .497 against him, and the hitting weather in Chicago only helps.

Ober has allowed a .272 ISO to left-handed hitters this season, and his two primary pitches have been big trouble. Lefties have found a boatload of power against his fastball and changeup.

I’ll roll with Pete Crow-Armstrong here. PCA has turned into a true star in the league at just 24 years old. He’s hitting .291 with 21 home runs and 53 RBIs this season; 16 of those homers have come against right-handed pitching, and he’s slugging .568 in that split.

Baseball Savant shows Ober throws his changeup a lot to lefties, and Pete owns a .657 slugging percentage against off-speed pitches this season, which is awesome to see.

Most of his advanced metrics — barrel rate, bat speed, launch angle, sweet spot rate, hard-hit rate — are all well above league average. PCA’s price is currently +210 at Hard Rock Bet, and he’s my favorite home run pick in this game, so I don’t mind a slightly tighter number.

Friday MLB Home Run Best Bet: Hunter Goodman +230

Finally, we’ll roll to Coors Field, where the Colorado Rockies host the Cincinnati Reds at 8:40 p.m. ET. We’re going to pick on Reds starter Brady Singer, who owns a 4.72 ERA with an even worse 5.51 expected ERA.

Singer gives up about a league-average ground-ball rate, but ranks in just the 28th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and the 13th percentile in barrel rate allowed.

Singer has surrendered 20 home runs this season; 14 have come against left-handed hitters, who are slugging .529 against him. And the Rockies finally have a superstar — or at least a borderline superstar — in Hunter Goodman.

Goodman has a whopping 27 home runs this season, 20 of them against right-handed pitching. He’s definitely not just a “Coors Field merchant,” either — 18 of his 27 homers have come on the road, so his power travels.

Now, he gets a mouthwatering matchup against a pitcher who can’t consistently keep the ball on the ground in the best power park in the league. I love Goodman at home at Coors Field on Friday, and his +230 odds on Hard Rock Bet are very playable.

MLB Home Run Notes for Friday, July 17

A few extra notes to keep in mind for your card today:

• Early game at Fenway: The Rays visit Fenway Park to battle the Red Sox in a 1:35 p.m. ET makeup game from May. Griffin Jax is slated to face Jake Bennett. It’s probably not the best matchup to target home runs, given the arms and the early start.
• Wildfire smoke watch: Canadian wildfires have been impacting air quality across many parts of North America lately. Keep an eye on possible changes to first-pitch times or conditions for any game on Friday. Scheduling could be fluid as the league and teams do their best to start games in conditions that keep players and fans as safe as possible.

All referenced odds are subject to change.

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