Phillies vs. Mets Predictions, Expert Betting Picks & Odds for July 16

Major League Baseball is back, and it’s time to make Phillies vs. Mets predictions for Thursday!

The All-Star break ended, and we sure had some fun festivities in Philadelphia between the Futures Game and all of the celebrity-type events leading up to the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game.

There’s a real regular-season game slated for Thursday at none other than Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies are hosting the Mets at 7:10 p.m. EST. It’s the only game on the Thursday slate before Friday’s return to some baseball normalcy as we trek toward the finish line and the scorching middle of the summer.

Let’s dive into my Phillies vs. Mets best bets for July 16 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Phillies vs. Mets Current Odds

Christian Scott is set to take the bump as the visiting Mets face Aaron Nola and the Phillies.

It’s going to be a high of 95 degrees on Thursday with an excessive heat warning, so it’s about to get real sweaty in the City of Brotherly Love — and that might not be good for Aaron Nola.

Below are the current MLB odds for Thursday, 7/16:

• Moneyline: Mets +110, Phillies -130

• Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-180), Phillies -1.5 (+150)

• Total (Runs): Over 9.5 (-105), Under 9.5 (-115)

Phillies vs. Mets Best Bet: Over 9.5 Runs (-105)

We know Nola likes to give up the occasional meatball. He ranks in just the 17th percentile in barrel rate, and according to Baseball Savant, he’s allowed a career-high fly-ball rate this season. That’s crazy because he’s not exactly getting obliterated, but the fact that it’s his highest rate so far is pretty wild.

Over the last three years, his pull-air percentage on batted balls has been the three highest marks of his career, which is terrible news for him. He’s honestly a little lucky he hasn’t given up more power so far this season. Nola has allowed an ISO north of .200 against both sides of the plate, which is no bueno — especially in this kind of heat.

On the other side, Christian Scott has a sparkling 3.17 ERA, but his expected ERA is more than a full run higher than that number. He hasn’t given up a lot of hard contact, but he only has a seventh-percentile ground-ball rate, according to Baseball Savant, so I’m not entirely sold that he’s a good Major League pitcher at this point.

I do have some qualms about this game starting off a bit sluggish after the break — most of these guys who weren’t participating in All-Star festivities had plenty of time off, so maybe there will be some rust.

But we have two pitchers where, on one side, Nola gives up a lot of fly balls, and on the other side, Scott is due for some regression. There’s hot weather, and this is a good hitting environment.

I like Over 9.5 runs at -105 on Hard Rock Bet in this one. You’ll find it under the total markets for Mets vs. Phillies on the MLB odds page.

Best MLB Player Props Today: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases

In terms of a look at player props, I really like Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases at +100.

He’s hit 17 home runs with six doubles in 175 at-bats against right-handed pitching, which is good enough for a .297 batting average and a .623 slugging percentage.

The Phillies’ bullpen also has some issues in its own right, so once Nola departs, I don’t think this is a bad matchup for Soto at all — especially at plus money.

I also like that the Mets are the visiting team and Soto is guaranteed a top-of-the-ninth at-bat. That extra plate appearance can turn out to be pretty critical when you’re looking at hitting props.

Soto’s under-the-hood metrics are elite. He ranks in the 99th percentile in expected weighted on-base average, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage. The guy is truly having another remarkable season.

Thursday’s MLB Betting Card

So in summary, I like some runs to be put on the board despite the long layoff and the heat, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Soto hits a home run in this one. I might sprinkle that as well, but I’ll leave my two official plays as:

• Mets/Phillies: Over 9.5 total runs (-110)

• Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases (+100)

If you need a refresher on how props work, Hard Rock has a quick guide on what a prop bet is.

Good luck, and enjoy some regular-season baseball action again!

Mets vs. Phillies Game Info

• 📍 Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• 📅 Date: Thursday, July 16
• ⏰ First Pitch: 7:00 PM ET
• 📺💻 TV/Streaming: ESPN
• ⚾ Probable Pitchers:
  • Mets: Christian Scott
  • Phillies: Aaron Nola