Happy Friday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for August 21 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. It isn’t the best slate to target home runs, but there are still a few spots to attack. Let’s get into the best bets!
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, August 21
- Nathaniel Lowe +375 (Guardians at Rockies – Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)
- Nolan Arenado +575 (Reds at Diamondbacks – Chase Field – 9:40 p.m. ET)
- Griffin Conine +450 (Nationals at Marlins – LoanDepot Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Pick: Nathaniel Lowe
We’ll start at Coors Field in Denver, where the Rockies host the Guardians at 8:40 p.m. ET. Tanner Gordon gets the ball for Colorado, and this is a scary, scary setup for a pitcher who has had trouble keeping hitters from making loud contact.
Gordon owns a 5.55 ERA across 71.1 innings, and he gets hit extremely hard. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks dead last in average exit velocity allowed and no better than the eighth percentile in ground-ball rate, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate allowed. That is a recipe for disaster anywhere, but especially in elevation.
Temperatures are expected to push 97 degrees in Denver on Friday before cooling down some by first pitch. Still, it is Coors Field, it is summer, and that’s more trouble for Gordon.
Nathaniel Lowe is my favorite left-handed hitter in the Guardians lineup in this spot. He has 14 home runs this season, all of them against right-handed pitching, and he is slugging .531 in 256 at-bats against righties. Lowe also owns a very strong .244 ISO in that split.
Gordon has given up oodles of power to left-handed hitters, allowing an ISO north of .300. That is an insane number, and it makes Lowe a very appealing home run target.
There is some pinch-hit risk if Colorado turns to a lefty later in the game, so hopefully Lowe can do some damage against Gordon early. He is more than capable.
Top Home Run Pick: Nolan Arenado
Next, we’ll head to Chase Field as the Diamondbacks host the Reds at 9:40 p.m. ET. Left-hander Nick Lodolo takes the mound for Cincinnati, and I’m looking at Nolan Arenado to go deep for Arizona.
Lodolo has not been good this season. He has dealt with a series of blister injuries and stints on the injured list, which has become a recurring issue over the past couple of years. He ranks below league average in barrel rate allowed and toward the bottom of the league in average exit velocity allowed and expected ERA.
Lodolo is not exactly a punching bag for home runs, but he has allowed 11 to right-handed hitters, and Arenado is swinging an unbelievably hot stick. He has six home runs in August with a slugging percentage north of .600 this month.
Chase Field is an awesome controlled hitting environment, and this is a nice spot for him to keep the heater going.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Griffin Conine
Finally, we’ll go to Miami as the Marlins host the Nationals at LoanDepot Park. Brad Lord is the probable starter for Washington, and Griffin Conine is the power bat I’m looking at for Miami.
Conine dealt with an injury-plagued 2025, but he has returned swinging an unbelievable bat so far in 2026. He has 14 home runs in fewer than 180 at-bats, and all 14 have come against right-handed pitching. Against righties, Conine is slugging north of .600.
The advanced numbers love him, too. His expected ISO sits north of .300, which is pretty ridiculous. If he qualified for all of the leaderboards, he would be near the top of the league in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage.
The profile is unreal. It kind of reminds me of Dominic Canzone — a hitter who has finally been given more runway and is proving he can absolutely crush the baseball. Miami may still limit Conine a bit against left-handed pitching, but he is tearing the cover off it against righties, and the sample is becoming very real.
Lord has allowed a .176 ISO to lefties this year, but his expected ISO is up at .227, so regression could be coming. That is exactly what we want to target with a hitter who has been making this much premium contact.
MLB Home Run Notes for Friday, August 21
- Nationals bullpen trouble: Washington’s bullpen has been awful. As of Thursday evening, Nationals relievers had allowed a league-high 87 home runs and carried the worst bullpen ERA in baseball. That is great news for Conine if he does not get to Lord early.
- Rockies relief concerns: Colorado’s bullpen has allowed 64 home runs and owns the third-worst bullpen ERA in baseball. That gives Nathaniel Lowe another path to do damage even if Gordon exits early.
- Reds bullpen fade: Cincinnati also ranks near the bottom of the league in bullpen ERA, which only helps Arenado’s chances of finding a favorable matchup later in the game.
- One early game: Friday has just one afternoon matchup at 4:10 p.m. ET before the rest of the slate begins at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. It is a good one, too: Chris Sale against Jacob Misiorowski. If you like a pitcher’s duel, buckle up — it does not get much better than that this year.
Good luck Friday!
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. In AZ, OH, & VA, call 1-800-MY-RESET.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (CO, IL, MI, NJ, TN)
