Happy Friday! We’re back with my best MLB home run picks for September 11 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook! Football is kicking off this week, but we still have some great dinger matchups to target on Friday. Let’s get into my best home run picks today!
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, September 11
- Samuel Basallo +375 (Orioles at Blue Jays – Rogers Centre – 7:07 p.m. ET)
- Matt Olson +325 (Phillies at Braves – Truist Park – 7:15 p.m. ET)
- Dylan Crews +450 (Angels at Nationals – Nationals Park – 6:45 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Prediction Today: Samuel Basallo +375
We’ll start north of the border in Ontario at Rogers Centre, where the Blue Jays host the Orioles at 7:07 p.m. ET. Max Scherzer is set to take the ball for Toronto, and the future Hall of Famer has struggled against left-handed hitters in the power department dating back to the beginning of last year.
Scherzer has allowed a .190 ISO to left-handed hitters this season, while striking out just 13% of them. That is not the version of Scherzer we are accustomed to seeing, and it sets up really well for Samuel Basallo.
The Orioles’ power-hitting young catcher owns a massive .229 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He has 17 home runs on the year, and a bunch of the advanced metrics are really intriguing.
Basallo ranks in the 84th percentile in barrel rate and the 75th percentile in bat speed, according to Baseball Savant. He is also well above league average in average exit velocity and expected slugging percentage.
Basallo has serious power, and I like his chances to leave the yard in Toronto.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Matt Olson +325
Next, we’ll go to Truist Park as the Braves host the Phillies at 7:15 p.m. ET. Aaron Nola is set to take the ball for Philadelphia, and we know what he can be at this point in his career: a pitcher who can serve up some meatballs when things are not going his way.
Nola has given up a career-high high fly-ball rate this season, and he has allowed an ISO north of .200 to left-handed hitters. That is the exact wrong matchup to bring into Atlanta against Matt Olson.
Olson is enjoying another monstrously powerful season. He owns a .295 expected ISO against right-handed pitching this year, and all of his advanced metrics are through the roof.
Nola is allowing a career-high barrel percentage, which is a recipe for disaster against Olson and company.
Olson is one of the biggest power threats in baseball, and this is the kind of matchup where he can hammer one. I like him to leave the yard at Truist Park.
MLB Home Run Bet: Dylan Crews +450
Finally, we’ll head to the nation’s capital as the Nationals host the Angels at 6:45 p.m. ET. Yusei Kikuchi is set to take the ball for Los Angeles after returning from a lengthy absence earlier this season.
Kikuchi has given up oodles of power to right-handed hitters so far, allowing a .222 ISO to righties. That is a great matchup for Dylan Crews, who has done his best work against left-handed pitching.
Crews owns a .231 ISO against southpaws this season. In just 121 plate appearances against lefties, he has six home runs and a .509 slugging percentage.
He is enjoying a nice season overall, and the advanced metrics back up the production. Crews ranks well above league average in bat speed, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. Any time he gets a southpaw, I am extremely interested.
Kikuchi’s power issues against right-handed hitters make this a spot I want to target, and he’s historically been a fly-ball pitcher. I’ll take a shot on Crews to go deep in Washington.
MLB Home Run Leaders
Here are the MLB home run leaders as of Thursday night:
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies – 44
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs – 41
- Junior Caminero, Rays – 39
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros – 38
- Hunter Goodman, Rockies – 37
- Matt Olson, Braves – 37
- Ben Rice, Yankees – 36
- Rafael Devers, Giants – 35
- Pete Alonso, Orioles – 34
- Colson Montgomery, White Sox – 31
- Munetaka Murakami, White Sox – 31
Good luck Friday!
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