We are continuing our set of NBA Playoffs series previews today with two matchups: the Boston Celtics vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Toronto Raptors vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. Let’s talk some basketball.
PHI-BOS & TOR-CLE Current Odds at Hard Rock Bet
- Celtics -900 / 76ers +550
- Cavs -600 / Raptors +425
The Eastern Conference first round features two matchups that, on paper, look tilted toward the betting favorites: Celtics vs. 76ers and Cavaliers vs. Raptors. And when you look at the Hard Rock Bet series prices, that expectation shows up immediately.
Boston enters as a -900 favorite against Philadelphia, with the 76ers at +550. Cleveland is a -600 favorite against Toronto, with the Raptors at +425. In both cases, I understand why the market is leaning heavily toward the higher seed.
76ers vs. Celtics breakdown
The regular-season series ended tied 2-2, but I do not think that tells us much. The first three games came in the first month of the season, and the Celtics were still working through that early rough patch. By the time these teams met again on March 1, Boston had clearly stabilized, and even without Jayson Tatum, the Celtics controlled the game.
A lot of this series comes down to Philadelphia’s ability to attack Boston’s drop coverage, especially with Tyrese Maxey. That is the swing factor. Maxey is going to have to make a lot of tough pull-up threes and win consistently in pick-and-roll. He has shown flashes of it, and one wrinkle I would like to see more of is using dribble handoffs to free him up, because he has often looked more comfortable shooting off the catch than off the dribble.
Embiid’s absence
The problem for Philly is that there are not many easy answers beyond that. If Joel Embiid does not play, which is the assumption I am working with here, the Sixers lose their most versatile counter against Boston’s defensive structure. Embiid would help as a pop threat and as a post-up option, but even if he did come back, I think the matchup gets more complicated because of what Boston can do to slower-footed bigs defensively.
Celtics strength
On the other end, Boston simply has far more ways to score. Philadelphia’s defensive system is built on aggression by bringing the big higher, digging, tagging, and trying to force turnovers, but that style plays directly into Boston’s strengths. The Celtics do not turn the ball over much, and they are one of the best spot-up teams in basketball. If they draw two defenders, the kickout is there. If they move the ball cleanly, they are going to generate better shots than Philly over and over again.
That is really the story of this matchup. Philly is relying on difficult drop-coverage shot-making. Boston is relying on a steady diet of high-quality spot-up opportunities.
That is a hard efficiency gap to close over a full series.
Jason Timpf’s 76ers vs. Celtics Pick
- Celtics in five: +210
Philadelphia’s path is pretty narrow. Maxey would need to go nuclear, Paul George and VJ Edgecombe would need to provide real support, the Sixers would need to win on the offensive glass, and Boston would need to have a few bad games.
It is possible for Philly to steal one, maybe even make things uncomfortable for a stretch, but over the course of the series, I think Boston is just too strong.
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: The Matchup Advantage Wins Out
The funny thing about this series is that Toronto went 3-0 against Cleveland in the regular season. But I take almost nothing from that, because those games came in the first six weeks of the season and the Cavs were absolutely crushed by injuries. They were not remotely the same team then that they are now.
So when I look at this matchup, I focus less on those head-to-head results and more on the overall profile of these teams.
The Raptors need to get physical
Toronto’s best chance in this series comes from physicality. If the Raptors are going to make this interesting, it has to be by pressuring Cleveland’s guards, being disruptive defensively, winning the offensive glass battle, and turning the series into a grind. Scottie Barnes would have to be dominant physically. Jakob Poeltl would have to create second chances. Cleveland would have to get uncomfortable.
There is some logic there. The Cavs have shown vulnerability at times against teams that can shove them around and make them play at a less comfortable pace.
But I do not see that holding up over a full series.
Donovan Mitchell: Locking in
Donovan Mitchell has a habit of looking a little shaky late in the regular season and then locking in once the playoffs begin. I expect that again. Cleveland, when healthy, still has a very well-built offense, especially with their finishing and spacing. And when they are whole, they can put lineups on the floor with multiple shooters you simply cannot leave open.
The bigger issue for Toronto is offensive consistency.
The Raptors are a bottom-10 three-point shooting team, and the Scottie Barnes-Jakob Poeltl frontcourt makes it easier for Cleveland to keep Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen stacked in pick-and-roll coverage. That means the Cavs can protect the rim, shrink the floor, and make Toronto score through traffic. That is where the series gets difficult for the Raptors.
Toronto does have playmaking. They move the ball well. But without reliable shooting and with questions around guard dribble penetration, especially if Immanuel Quickley is limited, that offense starts to look very fragile against a Cleveland defense that can load up at the rim.
That is why I keep coming back to the same conclusion: unless Cleveland completely folds under Toronto’s physicality, this is a really favorable half-court matchup for the Cavs.
Jason Timpf’s Raptors vs. Cavaliers Pick
- Cavaliers in six: +425
I think Toronto can make them work. I think there is enough size, activity, and defensive pressure to steal a game or two. But asking them to sustain that formula four times against a healthier, more complete Cleveland team is asking too much.
Jason Timpf’s PHI-BOS & TOR-CLE Picks
The Hard Rock Bet odds point strongly toward the favorites, and I agree with that overall read.
- Celtics (-900) vs. 76ers (+550): Celtics in five (+210)
- Cavaliers (-600) vs. Raptors (+425): Cavaliers in six (+425)
Boston has the cleaner offensive formula and the much better shot-quality outlook. Cleveland has the stronger overall roster and a matchup edge against a Toronto team that struggles to score efficiently against upper-tier competition.
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