Jason Timpf’s Hawks vs. Knicks First Round Playoff Series Breakdown & Prediction

We are continuing our series previews with the Knicks and the Hawks today, so let’s talk some basketball.

Hawks vs. Knicks Season Series

The Knicks won the season series two to one. The road team actually won all three games.

Both teams scored well below their season averages against each other by offensive rating. Both teams also had success on the offensive glass, with a slight edge to the Knicks.

Hawks vs. Knicks Current Odds at Hard Rock Bet

Here are the NBA Playoffs series prices provided by Hard Rock Bet:

• Knicks: currently a -300 favorite
• Hawks: +230

This is the opposite of how I felt about the Wolves-Nuggets matchup.

Even though the lines are relatively similar, I actually thought Minnesota was the smarter side of that betting line. I viewed that as closer to a pick’em with a slight edge to Denver.

I feel the opposite about this matchup.

I would be genuinely shocked if the Hawks won this series. I don’t see much value on their side of the line at all.

In fact, among the series we’ve covered so far, I’d argue this is one of the safest bets to advance, right behind Houston over the Lakers given their injuries.

Why ATL-NYK Stands Out

This is the only matchup where we actually have a great recent example of both teams being relatively healthy and playing hard against each other.

We saw a really competitive game recently. It went back and forth late, with both teams making plays. Jalen Brunson ended up winning it with a tough pull-up over CJ McCollum from the right elbow.

Atlanta had their chances. I don’t think this will be a sweep, but I’m picking the Knicks in six.

But the dynamic down the stretch of that game showed why it’s so difficult for Atlanta to win four out of seven in this series.

Knicks Offense vs. Hawks Defense

Atlanta has the ability to throw high-level perimeter defenders at Jalen Brunson. Between Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, they can make him work.

But the Knicks have two primary ways to attack:

1. The Brunson–Karl-Anthony Towns two-man game
2. Targeting CJ McCollum in mismatches

Towns creates problems with his size and strength. If you don’t close out, he hits threes. If you close out hard, he drives and wins the leverage battle to get to the rim.

Brunson, meanwhile, showed late in that last matchup that he can create separation even against elite defenders, especially using dribble handoffs to fight through pressure and get clean looks.

When Atlanta tries to avoid switches, the Knicks just re-screen or manipulate matchups early in possessions to get the defender they want.

And once Brunson gets a matchup he likes, he’s comfortable attacking one-on-one.

Hawks Offensive Strategy

Atlanta did a solid job attacking the Knicks’ weaknesses, especially targeting Brunson and Towns. They were able to generate good looks, get downhill, and create opportunities.

But the Knicks have defensive flexibility.

With OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges, they can switch a lot of actions and neutralize many of Atlanta’s preferred sets. That forces players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker into more responsibility as a primary creator.

And that’s where the gap shows.

Brunson has years of experience as a primary ball handler in high-leverage situations. It’s difficult to ask Atlanta’s creators to match that level of execution consistently across a full series.

The Deciding Factor for Hawks-Knicks

Both teams will attack each other’s weak points.

• Atlanta: Go after Brunson and Towns
• New York: Target CJ McCollum and Onyeka Okongwu

But when things break down late, when defenses tighten and possessions slow down, Brunson becomes the trump card. He has the experience, the shot creation, and the ability to score even against elite defenders.

That’s the difference in this matchup.

Jason Timpf’s Hawks vs. Knicks Pick

• Knicks in six: +425

Atlanta will likely steal a game or two, whether through transition opportunities or hot shooting nights. But asking them to win four out of seven against a team with Brunson’s level of control and experience is a tall order.

That gap in top-end talent and late-game execution is just too difficult to overcome.