Jason Timpf’s Timberwolves vs. Nuggets First Round Playoff Series Breakdown & Prediction

We are continuing our NBA Playoffs series previews today with the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. the Denver Nuggets.

This, to me, is one of the closest, if not the closest, series of the first round. A classic example of how matchups are what really determine things.

Denver is a team that I have in my top tier of championship contenders. Really, that second tier just behind OKC. And Minnesota, I have a tier below them.

But this is a team in Minnesota that matches up extremely well with Denver and has consistently given them problems for years, which I think is going to lead to a very close, very exciting, back-and-forth series.

We’re going to dive into the series from a bunch of different angles.

Alright, let’s talk some basketball.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Season Series History

The Nuggets won the season series this year 3-1. But dating back to the beginning of the 2024 season, including the playoffs, in 19 matchups Minnesota is 11-8. It has been very back and forth.

Denver went 3-1 this year. Minnesota went 4-0 last year. They had a very back-and-forth playoff series in 2024 and split 2-2 during that season. These teams have consistently given each other problems.

Denver, this season, has had a +2.8 net rating in the matchup and has dominated the rebounding battle, grabbing 55% of available rebounds.

Jokić and Murray have been absurdly good, combining for 67 points per game in the four matchups this year.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Current Odds at Hard Rock Bet

Let’s take a look at the playoff series prices provided by Hard Rock Bet.

The Nuggets right now are -350 to win the series. The Timberwolves are +260.

Now, do I think the Nuggets are a better team? Yes. Do I think they have a better chance to win the title? Yes. But this is a very tough matchup for them.

I actually think Minnesota +260 is the better bet, even though I’m going to pick the Nuggets to win the series in seven games.

A Series Defined by Runs

Both of these teams have consistently shown the ability to dominate each other in long stretches. Even in Denver’s wins this year, Minnesota has gone on extended runs where Denver looked completely shell-shocked.

We all remember that playoff series from two years ago with massive swings back and forth. Minnesota dominating stretches, Denver responding with huge runs, and then Minnesota stealing Game 7 with a 54-24 run after trailing by 20.

That has been the story of this matchup. They don’t play tight, back-and-forth games. They alternate blowing each other out in stretches.

Whoever wins this series is going to be the team that can string together those dominant runs more consistently.

Denver Offense vs. Minnesota Defense

The biggest swing factor is the defense-to-transition dynamic.

When Denver executes in the half court, they’re fine. But when they turn the ball over or take bad shots, it fuels Minnesota’s transition attack.

Minnesota was +10 points per game in fast break points in this year’s regular season matchup.

Jaden McDaniels will likely start on Jamal Murray, using his length to disrupt him. Rudy Gobert will be on Jokić. Jokić can still score, but Gobert makes him work.

Minnesota may mix in creative matchups by putting Anthony Edwards on Murray or experimenting with different defenders on Jokić, but Denver has shown the ability to solve those looks.

Jokić’s three-point shooting will be a huge swing factor. If Minnesota forces him into pick-and-pop situations, he has to hit those shots.

Christian Braun will also need to hit catch-and-shoot threes if Gobert sags into the paint.

Minnesota’s Offensive Game Plan

For Minnesota, it starts with defense creating offense. Force turnovers, push in transition, and avoid the half court whenever possible.

Jaden McDaniels has been a huge factor, averaging 20 points per game in this matchup largely through transition scoring.

The biggest issue for Minnesota this season in this matchup has been three-point shooting.

• Anthony Edwards: 26% from three vs. Denver
• Julius Randle: 26%
• Jaden McDaniels: 25%
• Donte DiVincenzo: 29%

They simply haven’t hit shots.

To win this series, they need:

• Edwards to hit pull-up threes against drop coverage
• Consistent scoring at the rim
• Better execution on kick-out passes
• Role players to hit open threes

Julius Randle, in particular, needs to provide more on-ball scoring. He’s been ineffective in post-ups against Denver.

Jason Timpf’s Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Pick

• Nuggets in seven: +350

I think this is the closest series of the first round.

I’d put it at about 55-45 in favor of Denver. I would not be surprised at all if Minnesota won.

Minnesota matches up extremely well with Denver, and that’s what makes this series so dangerous for the Nuggets.

But Denver is the more mature team, and I trust them slightly more to play to their ceiling over the course of the series. That’s why I’m leaning Denver in seven.

But Minnesota at +260 via Hard Rock Bet is a very interesting value play.

This is going to be an instant classic.