On the latest episode of The Colin Cowherd Podcast, I was joined by former NFL scout John Middlekauff to break down some of the most intriguing NFL win totals heading into next season.
New England Patriots: 0/u 9.5 Wins
The Patriots are sitting at 9.5 wins, and that’s with the Jets and Dolphins in their division. Think about that for a second. That’s potentially 2-0 against the Jets and 2-0 against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins may have the weakest roster in the league right now. There are four wins baked in there already, and Vegas still doesn’t think New England has another six wins in them.
Middlekauff on the Patriots’ Outlook
I’ll say this about the Jets – they added a lot of good players in the draft. They just extended Breece Hall. If Geno Smith can just be capable in five or six games throughout the season, they could knock a random team off here and there.
But yeah, I would take the New England Patriots to finish with a 9 or 10-win season. Just to be safe, I’d probably hammer the under.
I do think the Vrabel situation is something that clearly has not gone away. There is an element where everyone is staring at you – it can become a weird scenario. Football’s a little different than basketball because the fans are not necessarily right on top of you, but there are going to be a lot of things yelled. It’s going to be a unique environment for the Patriots from an off-the-field standpoint.
Also, their schedule was easy last year – everyone’s gunning for you now. They just won the AFC, so no one’s taking you lightly anymore. Strength of schedule adds up.
So, I’d still go with 9 or 10 wins. Now, if Drake Maye takes another step and becomes Josh Allen 2.0, then I believe they go over. But I could see them being better in the big picture and not winning as many games.
Middlekauff’s Pick: Patriots Under 9.5 Wins
San Francisco 49ers: o/u 10.5 Wins
I’ll have to see the way the schedule shakes out this year. If I was playing it safe, I’d probably go 10-7, so I’d take the under.
As long as you’ve got Kyle and that coaching staff, they’re going to be pretty dependable. Remember, they split with the Rams and Seattle last year, so it’s not like they’re playing two bad teams in the division, but they’re comfortable playing those teams.
They went down last year and beat the Rams on Thursday Night Football with Mac Jones starting.
Now they get Seattle Week 1, which is obviously tough, but the Niners are used to playing in that environment. If you told me the Bears were opening the season at Seattle, that’s a brutal spot – super loud, great defense. It wouldn’t shock you if the Bears won 11 games and still lost that game by 10 points.
The Niners are just different in those spots because they’ve played in those environments so many times already.
So, I feel pretty comfortable saying they’ll be 10-7.
Middlekauff’s Pick: 49ers Under 10.5 Wins
Minnesota Vikings: o/u 8.5 Wins
Pretty interesting: in the best division in football based on record the last two years, despite the J.J. McCarthy situation, the Vikings are sitting at 8.5 wins. The Bears are at 9.5 with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, and the Vikings are still at 8.5.
Is that the ultimate tip of the cap to Kevin O’Connell?
They just went and got Jauan Jennings from the Niners, but that number feels like if the Vikings were in the NFC South instead of the NFC North, it would make a lot more sense. But 8.5 wins in that division feels like a huge vote of confidence in Kevin O’Connell.
Middlekauff on Why He’s Hammering the Vikings Under
Two years ago they won 14 games, right? And last year they won nine. I’m hammering that under.
To me, they’ve got five, six, maybe seven wins written all over them. They’re the last-place team in that division in my opinion. Now, like you said, it’s a tough division.
I think the Lions are going to be solid this year. To me, both the Lions and Vikings were basically 9-8 teams last season, but the Lions were clearly the better version of that. If I had to pick which team was better last year, I’m taking Detroit.
I think the Bears are going to be a playoff team again, and the Packers sneaky have a lot of question marks. You look at their roster and they’ve lost a lot of core guys from last year through trades and free agency. Then LaFleur came out at the owners meetings talking about “internal locker room problems.”
Middlekauff on the Packers’ WR Issues
Clearly, some guys weren’t all on the same page. I think he was probably talking about the offensive guys when he mentioned the locker room problems. If you looked at it, they let Doubs walk and they traded Wicks to the Eagles.
I think they had guys inside that wide receiver room who thought they were stars and wanted the ball more. When you look at the catches on that team, Tucker Kraft led them with like 55 or 60 catches. They didn’t have multiple guys sitting there with 70 or 80 catches.
Wide receivers are the icing on the cake. No matter how high-character they are, there’s still a little “me, me” involved. You start looking at a guy like A.J. Brown – if you stop getting the ball, frustrations start building.
The offense was a little weird last year, too. They were winning games bringing in Malik Willis and basically running quarterback option all game long, and it was working. In fairness to LaFleur, he was just doing whatever he had to do to win games.
But wide receivers want to run go routes and post routes.
I’ve always thought LaFleur is much more like Kyle Shanahan than Sean McVay or Kevin O’Connell. McVay and O’Connell are more like Andy Reid where they want to throw the ball. LaFleur, if Josh Jacobs is healthy, would love a 1,500-yard running back. He wants to run the football and control the clock. It’s not the most wide receiver-friendly offense.
Christian Watson honestly feels like the perfect fit because he’s content just getting paid a little money and running go routes.
Now they’re going to be very dependent on Golden taking a huge step forward this year. But Green Bay’s organization has kind of proven that every time you bet against them, they still find a way to stay in the mix.
So for me in the NFC North, I’d go Bears, Lions, Packers, then Vikings.
Middlekauff’s Pick: Vikings Under 8.5 Wins
Cincinnati Bengals: o/u 9.5 Wins
I’ve got one for you, though. I like this team a lot, and I thought the weekend they had was really good.
I think the Bengals are putting themselves in a really good spot right now.
You know Burrow’s got a little LeBron in him, right? He’s telling these guys and forcing their hand a little bit, and in fairness, he hasn’t been wrong about some of this stuff.
You’re playing in Ohio and don’t even have an indoor practice facility?
Listen, when you invest that much into two wide receivers, it gets tough to economically build your team. But when they traded the 10th pick for Dexter Lawrence, that was a ballsy, aggressive move.
Then they draft Cashius Howell. If his arms were 33 inches instead of 29 or 30, he’s probably going in the first round because every time you watched Texas A&M, he was by far the best player on the field.
Then they get him in the second round, they sign Mafe, and now suddenly they’ve just got more bodies up front. Their defensive line is way better now, and we already know the offense is good.
To me, they’re the pick to win that division.
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