College Football Week 7 Picks & Predictions: FSU vs. Miami, Florida vs. Texas

It’s a huge weekend in college football, but an even bigger one in Florida, with two of the state’s biggest programs looking to bounce back in Week 7.

We’ve got No. 3 Miami hosting rival Florida State, while the Florida Gators head to Austin to take on Texas and Arch Manning.

Miami is a 21.5-point favorite over the Seminoles, while Texas is laying 11.5 against Florida at Hard Rock Bet.

So, can either underdog keep things close?

Florida at Texas: Week 7 Picks & Predictions

We’ll start with the early game, Florida at Texas:

Kelly: Florida +11.5

Is Aaron Philo really a backup quarterback?

Those two have been battling it out all year. I really don’t think there’s much of a drop-off here, and neither does the market.

Apparently, the line has only moved half a point since they announced that Philo wouldn’t be playing.

The real MVP of that team is Jadan Baugh. He has 672 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the season.

I think everybody is freaking out.

Florida got its butt kicked at Missouri, 45-17. Then they turned around and lost to South Carolina, a team I’ve been on so many different times.

They didn’t just lose to South Carolina at home. It was a 38-19 final.

When you have those ugly outcomes, what happens? You end up getting double digits at the University of Texas.

Texas was up 17-7 last week before Arch Manning threw two interceptions against its rival, unranked Oklahoma.

That was just the third Power Four opponent Texas has played this season. Oklahoma, Tennessee and Ohio State.

Every single one of those games went right down to the wire and was decided by one score.

Yes, the Longhorns edged out Ohio State at home. Kudos to them.

I do think Texas will edge out Florida here.

That’s why I didn’t put Florida in my moneyline parlay, which means they’ll probably win this game outright.

Ariel: Florida +11.5

I trust Florida.

I’m going to give one more reason that’s probably under the radar: special teams.

Florida actually has a special teams edge. The Gators rank No. 5 in special teams this year, compared to Texas at No. 73.

We saw in that Tennessee game that Tennessee stayed close with Texas in Knoxville because of special teams.

If Florida is that good on special teams, I could see a big special teams play.

I also think Florida can run the football enough to stay in this game.

Texas is one of the better defenses in college football, so stopping the run is going to be important.

Jadan Baugh is going to be a difference-maker, but so are special teams. Do not sleep on that.

I just can’t get myself to lay double digits with Texas.

Joe: Can Florida Keep It Close?

Maybe the best thing for Florida after back-to-back losses in the Swamp is to get out of the Swamp, go on the road, and try to get back to its winning ways.

We’ve got injuries, a losing streak, and Florida’s quarterback likely isn’t going to play.

This line at Hard Rock Bet has continued to rise from 10.5 to 11.5 points, with the total at 51.5.

I don’t like Texas’ offense at all, but can we trust the Gators’ offense with a backup quarterback to get it done?

Florida State at Miami: Week 7 Picks & Predictions

Now for the night game between the Seminoles and Hurricanes:

Kelly: Florida State +21.5 (Lean)

I’m going to play the contrarian angle because it’s my favorite thing to do.

This reminds me of that Wake Forest game where everybody was betting Miami, and then Wake Forest got the cover.

I don’t think 5-0 Miami has really seen a real test this year. What are we going to call that 41-13 blowout at Clemson? I tried to make a case for Clemson, and Miami fans still won’t let me live that down.

Just remember, this is a free opinion, and I’m not putting any money on it.

Darian Mensah has been flawless. This kid is an absolute stud. Fifteen touchdowns, zero interceptions.

Florida State was up 14-0 last week against Louisville, and I thought, “Oh boy, here comes Florida State. Here’s all that talent.”

Remember, we saw them drop 36 on Alabama. They routed Virginia 38-7.

But no, they’re not that talented.

Ashton Daniels has 10 rushing touchdowns and eight passing scores. Seven interceptions, though, which isn’t great.

Here’s the problem I have, and why I’d love to take the points.

Florida State hasn’t been good for a really long time, but seven of the last 11 meetings between these two teams were decided by a touchdown or less, including last year, when Miami won 28-22 in Tallahassee.

The U barely got out of there.

Now you’re catching more than three touchdowns. I’ve got to like the Noles, but I just don’t trust the Noles.

Ariel: Concerned About Laying 21.5 With Miami

Miami is coming off an early bye week, which means the Hurricanes now have eight straight games to play.

Maybe if they’re up by enough, they don’t keep their foot on the gas.

Sure, they could win, but do I trust them to win by three scores if they’re up early?

I don’t know if I could take the points with Florida State because Miami’s defense is so good.

Their run defense is ranked No. 5, and Miami’s offense is top five. Everything here is pointing to Miami.

Can Miami just keep running the football if they take a lead? Sure.

But is there going to be enough time to cover three scores? I don’t know if I could lay 21.5 points.

Miami could be up by two scores with five or six minutes left in the fourth quarter and start resting some starters. Then you could get a crazy backdoor cover.

Joe: Miami -21.5

It wasn’t too long ago when I would have looked at this game and said, “I’m not getting Cristobal’d.”

But that was a long time ago.

I’m laying the points. I’m not worried about getting Mario Cristobal’d here.

He is, without a doubt, head and shoulders the best coach on this field.

I’ll lay it with the U.