College Football Week 1 Predictions: What to Watch Across the Big Ten With Jake Butt

Football is finally here. Week 0 gave us a little appetizer, and now Week 1 is coming up with a full slate of games to break down.

We don’t do a ton of interviews around here. We only do high-quality interviews with guys like our homie Jake Butt, who is going to join us every Wednesday during the season. I put my Big Ten gear on, brought Jake into the Film Guy Network and picked his brain about what he will be watching across the conference this weekend.

This is a big mismatch week for a lot of college football teams. We may already know which team is expected to win several of these games, but there are still important things to learn. What does a new quarterback look like in the system? Are the young players ready? How does a defense replace NFL talent? Those are the questions that matter when we turn on the tape.

Before getting to Week 1, we started with what USC showed us in its season-opening win over San Jose State.

Jake Butt on USC’s True Freshmen & Finish on Defense

The thing that stood out to me most was how many true freshmen were playing. I guess that’s expected when you have the No. 1 high school recruiting class – those things are still valuable. It’s not all transfer portal, fifth-year seniors.

Trent Mosley specifically stood out at wide receiver. He even had a nice, long punt return. He does not look like a true freshman. If I didn’t know what class he was in, I would think he was an upperclassman getting ready to go to the NFL. I know it was San Jose State, but he looked really, really good. Jayden Maiava was surgical. It was a solid win.

I still put weight on the way the defense finished the game. I know you’re talking about backups and rotating different guys through, but the standard is the standard. It’s a new defensive coordinator, and it’s San Jose State. To see the way USC finished was a little concerning to me. A lot of it seemed like mental errors and missed assignments, with guys completely out of position.

I’m not panicking yet, but this is such an important year for Lincoln Riley and the team. I would think there would be a standard for the first-, second-, third- and fourth-team players. Everyone should be held to that standard. The hope is that they clean it up this week.

Yeah – USC was outscored 23-0 in the fourth quarter. I will say that San Jose State led the nation in completions per game and pass attempts last year. When you enter the fourth quarter down 46-3 and the coach says, “We just have to go out here and sling the pill for 15 minutes,” that quarterback is licking his chops. He gets to throw the football against a bunch of third-string players. That is where he’s comfortable.

It was an interesting matchup for USC in a blowout situation, but I’m with Jake. You have to see a better standard in the fourth quarter. The Trojans played 15 freshmen in the game, and Chad Bowden knows something about what good football players look like. Luke Wafle, in particular, is a monster. You rarely see an offensive or defensive lineman look that physically dominant at 18 or 19 years old.

Indiana & Josh Hoover

Indiana enters Week 1 as a massive favorite. The result is not the only thing worth watching, though. The bigger question is what Josh Hoover looks like in his first game operating the Hoosiers’ offense.

It’s just Josh Hoover. How comfortable does he look in this system? You’re not going to draw a ton from the game when you understand the opponent Indiana is facing, but I still want to look at him operationally.

Is he taking unnecessary risks? What does his chemistry with the receivers look like? Is he trusting the run game? How does he look in the RPO system?

I would point to Fernando Mendoza last year. In Week 1, he was below a 60% completion rate and had zero touchdowns. Mendoza did not look good at all, so maybe we can draw a little something from that with Hoover. Regardless, there isn’t much outside of that. I expect Indiana to dominate the game.

That Old Dominion matchup last year was a little different because it was a well-coached team running a wide-choice offense that could catch you off guard if you were not prepared for it. This week’s spread is around 41 points, and it is expected to be quite a bludgeoning. I’m with Jake: I am very curious to see what Hoover looks like.

Oregon’s Offensive Weapons & Dante Moore

One of the sneakier lines to me was seeing Boise State get almost 25 points against Oregon. I thought it might be a little more daunting because of what Oregon has from a roster standpoint.

I know the Ducks’ defensive line is going to be phenomenal. My question is whether that wide receiver room is as advertised.

I would say the offensive weapons with Dante Moore. Him deciding to come back is because he wants to win a national championship.

Dakorien Moore had a great freshman season last year and should be ready to take that next step. Evan Stewart is back after missing all of last year with an injury. Does he look healthy? Is he confident? Is he trusting his body, especially in traffic and tight spaces?

Then there is Jamari Johnson at tight end. I think he could compete for the Mackey Award. He is an absolute stud. I would put those three pass catchers up there with the best in college football.

The real story for me will be the coordinators. Oregon has two new coordinators who were promoted internally. It is a new system with maybe a little new verbiage. Are they minimizing mental errors and being technically sound within the system? Those little details with two new play callers are what I will be looking for.

I’m also curious about what they do at the tackle spots. The rumors out of camp are that they might start a couple of freshmen. Boise State always has a quality defensive line and a rusher or two who can get you if you’re not careful. Is Oregon ready to play college football?

I remember watching Boise State against Washington in the bowl game this offseason while doing some film study. That looked like a Power conference defensive line. Those guys can get after you if you’re not careful, so Oregon’s young tackles will be worth watching closely.

Ohio State’s New-Look Defense

Ohio State has one of the largest point spreads in college football against Ball State. We should get an extended look at some of the Buckeyes’ younger players, including Tavien St. Clair and Chris Henry Jr., but the more important long-term question may be on defense.

Ohio State is replacing eight starters. I understand that the Buckeyes are always going to have talent, so I’m not concerned about the talent level of the guys who will be starting.

When I look at last year, Caleb Downs was an anomaly from a leadership standpoint. Who becomes the voice that fills the void left by Caleb Downs? From a versatility standpoint, Downs played all over that defense. So did Arvell Reese. Even Sonny Styles, as athletic as he was at linebacker, was a bit of a Swiss Army knife.

That allowed Matt Patricia to run a really complex, NFL-style defense. We probably won’t see many exotic looks against Ball State, but generally speaking, I want to see what the defense looks like in Year 2 under Patricia without those three freaks who could play all across the defense.

Caleb’s ability to communicate what the defense should be in was special. People talk about the quarterback of the defense, and normally that is the green dot or the Mike linebacker. Even in high school, I had never seen a defensive player be that impactful for his teammates and make sure everybody was on the right page at all times.

You could feel his leadership and presence on film. It is one thing to do that when you look like Taylor Mays and you’re 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds playing safety. Downs is a 5-foot-11, 210-pound guy who looked like the best player on the field at all times.

People called me crazy when I said I thought that was Ed Reed, but I think that is what it is. The NFL is going to find out. He is one of the most special football players I have ever watched from the standpoint of making everyone around him better and possibly being the smartest player on the field. That guy is always moving first.

Ohio State has the talent to replace great players. What we need to see is how the Buckeyes replace that communication, intelligence and versatility.

Bryce Underwood & Michigan

After Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State, there is a second pack of Big Ten teams fighting to establish themselves. Michigan is part of that group, and Western Michigan is a sneaky opponent. The Broncos won the MAC last year and are picked to win it again. Michigan should dominate, but it cannot sleepwalk into this game.

Of course, I’m looking at Bryce Underwood. I want to see what he looks like from a technique standpoint: his footwork and decision-making.

Last year, almost every throw was a bullet on a line. Is he comfortable layering passes? Does he have different trajectories and velocities on his throws?

What I am most excited to see is how Michigan uses his legs in the run game. The Wolverines play Oklahoma in Week 2, so I wonder how much we’re going to see from a schematic standpoint. We will still be able to take away a lot specifically about Bryce Underwood and how he looks. I think that will ultimately decide the ceiling for Michigan this fall.

That is the question. Michigan does not need to empty the playbook one week before Oklahoma, but Underwood’s development is going to determine how good this team can be.

Washington’s Line of Scrimmage

Washington has to wait until Sunday to play Washington State in a Week 1 rivalry game. I like that the Apple Cup stayed on the schedule. It helps that Washington State is not expected to be very good right now, because if this were a top-20 matchup every year, teams might try to get out of it while playing nine-game conference schedules.

I am glad the game is still being played. I also expect growth from Demond Williams Jr. in Year 3 of Jedd Fisch’s system. When I turn Washington on, it is so schematically sound offensively. Fisch does a tremendous job with quarterbacks.

Jedd was actually my offensive coordinator at Michigan, so I am a Jedd Fisch fan and a big-time believer in his offensive system. He does a great job layering the different schemes – the run and the play action – which makes the offense very hard to defend.

Demond Williams might be the Big Ten quarterback who gives defensive coordinators the biggest headache because of his athleticism. Jedd has told me for a few years that he is the fastest player on the team. He isn’t just a fast quarterback; he is the fastest player on the team, period. On top of that, he can throw the ball all over the field.

For Washington specifically, though, it is the offensive and defensive lines. That is where the Huskies fell short last year. They were clearly a class below Ohio State and Michigan, and they could not compete at the line of scrimmage against Oregon.

Jedd has been adamant that the lines of scrimmage are much deeper and more talented this year. That is what I will be watching when I turn on the tape.

Washington also has to replace two NFL players at wide receiver and running back. I am sure the Huskies will be fine, but we will see what it ultimately looks like this weekend.

UCLA vs. Cal & Bob Chesney’s Debut

UCLA-Cal is a sneaky good game. It has a tight spread, it is expected to be competitive, and it is Bob Chesney’s debut with the Bruins. I will be locked in because of the quarterback matchup.

I think it is a great opportunity for Bob Chesney to show the world what kind of coach he is and give us a preview of the trajectory of the UCLA program.

Some distracting and difficult news came out when UCLA fired its athletic director amid questions about the budget. That has a chance to leak into the locker room, but I don’t think it will because I believe in Bob Chesney as a leader.

What is UCLA’s identity? What does the team look like? What does Chesney look like coaching in a big-time game?

Nico Iamaleava is a quarterback who could take a huge step with the right coaching, and I believe the right coaching has arrived with Chesney and his staff. Nico was a five-star, highly touted recruit, but it has not all come together on the field. He did some nice things last year in a completely dysfunctional system with different coaches, coordinators and play callers, along with a roster that was not that great.

I think it will be a much more stable situation for Nico this year. I’m excited to see what he looks like.

I am excited to see Nico in this offensive system. At James Madison, Chesney’s offense was predicated on the read option and heavily involved the quarterback in the designed run game. At Tennessee and UCLA, Iamaleava had plenty of rushing attempts, but a lot of them came on scrambles. He was taking off because nothing was available or because he could not get to the backside of the progression. His legs were not always being used by design.

James Madison’s quarterback led the team in rushing touchdowns last year and was second in rushing attempts. The offense intentionally made him part of the run game. Now Chesney has a dynamic athlete in Iamaleava, who was UCLA’s leading rusher last year.

When I first watched Nico get a random start against Iowa in a bowl game as a freshman, the first thing I noticed was his natural feel as a runner. He is not just a great athlete. He can set up blocks, be patient and understand when to stick his foot in the gas. A lot of athletic quarterbacks are all gas and no brakes until somebody hits them. Nico has more feel than that.

Chesney is a damn good football coach, and he has some kind of juice. The job now is not only to win football games. You also have to sell your program and your mission. He has already shown he can do that. Now I want to see what he and Iamaleava can build together on the field.

One last reminder: Jake will be with us every Wednesday this season to talk Big Ten football and break down what he sees on tape.

Football is back, and we finally have real games to talk about.