The Pittsburgh Pirates (80-78) and St. Louis Cardinals (77-81) wrap up a three-game series to kick off Thursday’s MLB slate with a 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch at PNC Park in a rubber match.
The Pirates kept their winning streak alive and extended it to five games with a 2-0 shutout win in Tuesday’s series opener, backed by seven dominant scoreless innings from Jared Jones, who also recorded nine strikeouts in a game in which the Cardinals’ offense had just one hit. However, the streak ended there as the Cardinals responded with a 5-1 victory Wednesday night to even the series thanks to a three-run third inning followed by a two-run fourth.
Kyle Leahy is scheduled to take the mound for the Cardinals Thursday afternoon in what has been a very impressive 2026 campaign for the right-hander. Leahy had just one start through his first 98 MLB appearances but owns a 10-5 record with a 3.65 ERA through 29 starts this year in his first season as a full-time starting pitcher.
Paul Skenes is set to make his final start of the season for the Pirates, bringing a disappointing year to a close that was plagued by a drop in velocity, intermittent command issues, and an overall decline in performance. After two straight seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA to begin his career, during which he won the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year Award and then the 2025 NL Cy Young Award, Skenes enters Thursday with a 10-11 record and a 3.91 ERA across 31 starts this year.
Check out Cardinals vs. Pirates predictions, picks, and more below for Thursday afternoon’s rubber match at PNC Park.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds
The Pirates are listed as home favorites at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook in this NL Central matchup:
Cardinals vs. Pirates Predictions
Head over to Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook to get in on the daytime MLB action and check out the Stats Hub for baseball betting insights and trends when placing wagers like our Cardinals vs. Pirates prediction below:
Pirates vs. Cardinals Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-135)
The first two games of this series both stayed under 6.5 total runs, with the two teams combining for eight runs heading into the finale. Paul Skenes obviously has elite stuff, but we all know he hasn’t performed the way we’re accustomed to seeing him perform this season. While Kyle Leahy has enjoyed a very good year overall, he hasn’t been pitching too well recently.
Leahy posted a 1.38 ERA in July followed by a 1.64 ERA in August, but the Cardinals’ right-hander is 0-1 with an 11.42 ERA through his first three starts of September. With St. Louis out of the playoff picture and 2026 being the first season Leahy has been a full-time starting pitcher in MLB, the Cardinals have been keeping him on an innings and pitch-count limit down the stretch to prioritize his health for the 2027 season.
Even with his limited workload, Leahy has struggled on the mound lately. He allowed five earned runs in just 2.2 innings against Colorado on Sept. 6 and later allowed seven runs (six earned) over three innings in a loss to Washington in his most recent outing on Sept. 18. Leahy also pitched against Pittsburgh recently on Aug. 29, when he allowed one earned run in only three innings of work. He also faced the Pirates on April 28, when he allowed a modest three earned runs in a win but notably surrendered nine hits and two home runs.
Skenes’ September ERA isn’t quite as high as Leahy’s, as he owns a 4.70 ERA through four starts this month, but he allowed five earned runs to San Francisco on Sept. 1 and another five earned runs in his most recent start against Kansas City on Sept. 18. Skenes has pitched against St. Louis only once this season, back on April 30, when he allowed five runs (three earned) in a loss.
The Stats Hub notes that four of the Cardinals’ last five day games against NL opponents have gone Over the total runs line, and it’s also worth mentioning that Skenes owns a higher ERA in day games compared to night games this season.
- Pirates vs. Cardinals Total Pick for Sept. 24: Over 6.5 (-135)
Top 5 Most-Bet Player Props for STL-PIT
Despite his underwhelming season, Skenes is still an elite strikeout pitcher and recorded seven in his previous outing, making his strikeout prop a very popular selection in the player prop markets:
- Paul Skenes – Over 5.5 Strikeouts
- Nick Gonzales – Over 0.5 Hits
- Jordan Walker – To Record 3+ Total Bases
- Oneil Cruz – To Record 3+ Total Bases
- Oneil Cruz – Over 0.5 Home Runs
Cardinals vs. Pirates Game Info
- š Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- š Date: Thursday, Sept. 24
- ā° First Pitch: 12:35 PM ET
- šŗš» TV/Streaming: MLB.TV
- ā¾ Probable Pitchers:
- Cardinals: Kyle Leahy
- Pirates: Paul Skenes
More Ways to Bet
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Referenced odds are subject to change.
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