Ole Miss vs. Florida Early Picks, Predictions & Preview with Brooks Austin

It’s a 3:30 p.m. kickoff inside The Swamp, and the Florida Gators are 3.5-point favorites with our friends over at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

We’ve been waiting to pick this football game, and I’m not going to bury the lead. I’ll give you all my analysis after the fact, but here is the reality of the situation.

When it comes to predictive analysis for me, sometimes I just go with one principle and stick with that principle until it’s broken. I always picked Alabama. That principle has been broken. I always pick Georgia against Tennessee. That principle still stands.

And I am not picking against Trinidad Chambliss until the principle is broken. I’m not picking against that guy. I will not pick against Chambliss until he loses a football game that I picked him to win.

So, yeah, you already know where I’m going with this one.

Ole Miss vs. Florida Keys to the Game

Florida’s defensive line buttoned it the hell up last week. The Gators had seven sacks against Auburn after the first couple of weeks were relatively concerning up front. It was actually the back end that allowed some explosives against Auburn, especially late in the football game.

So a key for me is both defensive lines. I think they’re both legit.

Quarterback Play

That leads us to the quarterbacks. Which quarterback can alleviate the problems created by those defensive fronts? Chambliss is obviously electric with his legs. Aaron Philo is electric inside the pocket.

Philo’s pocket movement is really, really high-end. You almost have to beat him twice. You have to beat the offensive lineman and force him to push up, and then you have to collapse the pocket again to actually get him on the ground. He keeps his eyes downfield and avoids the rush really well.

Chambliss is just an elite, elite scrambler and a playmaker in his own right.

How those two quarterbacks handle pressure is going to be a massive part of this game.

Can Ole Miss Slow Down Jadan Baugh?

I said on a podcast that I would defend Florida as if Jadan Baugh is Stephen Curry. He’s going to get his 30. Just mark it off. We’re going to give Baugh his 150 yards, and our job defensively is to make sure everybody else doesn’t kill us.

That dude is going to get his work. It’s going to happen. Everybody else just can’t beat us.

Vernell Brown III Can Change the Game Instantly

That brings me to another X-factor: Vernell Brown III.

We’ve talked a lot about the Ole Miss defensive line being able to get pressure on Philo. The problem? Brown doesn’t need any time. Just get him the football.

He might be the fastest dude in college football with the rock in his hands right now. It is terrifying. Ryan Williams might be a close second. Anthony Evans is making people miss and running through arm tackles right now.

But Vernell? This dude is a straight-line demon. Florida gives him a lot of now screens, and it’s a problem. He’s an explosive play waiting to happen. That’s my X-factor for the Gators.

No Lead Is Safe Against Ole Miss

Here’s something else you need to know about Ole Miss. It doesn’t matter what the score is. If the Rebels are down 10 points, they’re still in it. If they’re up 10 points, you’re still in it. There are multiple reasons.

First, Ole Miss has No. 6. If you’ve got a two-score lead against Chambliss, don’t you dare think that thing is safe. Georgia found that out in the Sugar Bowl. It is not safe.

On the other side, if Ole Miss has the lead, the Rebels haven’t consistently shown they can ice football games. They can’t just lean on the running game and shut the door. So you’re constantly in it. They’re constantly in it.

Whatever you do, do not turn that television off. Something is going to change in the second half of this football game.

Injury Report Could Be Important

I’ll also be paying close attention to the injury report heading into this game for two reasons: Kewan Lacy and Eric Singleton Jr.

Those are two extremely explosive weapons for these football teams, and their availability is something to monitor going into Saturday.

Ole Miss vs. Florida Early Predictions

Now we get to our “Unless It Doesn’t Happen” predictions. Here’s one of the craziest ones: Three receivers will finish with at least 100 receiving yards. Give me Deuce Alexander for 120-plus yards for Ole Miss, with Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III both topping 100 yards for Florida.

As for the score, I told you where I stood at the beginning. I am not picking against Chambliss until he gives me a reason to. Give me Ole Miss winning a close one inside The Swamp.

• Brooks Austin’s Ole Miss vs. Florida Score Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Florida 31