BettingPros PGA Show: 2026 Open Championship Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The final major championship of the season has arrived.

Royal Birkdale once again plays host to The Open Championship, bringing together the strongest field in golf for one final chance at major glory in 2026. As always, links golf presents a completely different challenge than anything players see during the regular PGA Tour season. Weather, creativity, trajectory control, and patience become just as important as power and putting.

After another excellent tune-up at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, many of the game’s biggest stars arrive in England in outstanding form. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, and Ludvig Åberg headline one of the deepest fields of the year.

With so many elite players peaking at the right time, we’re expecting another memorable Open Championship.

Course Preview: Royal Birkdale Golf Club

Royal Birkdale returns as Open Championship host for the first time since Jordan Spieth’s memorable victory in 2017, when he finished 12-under to capture the third major championship of his career. First opened in 1889, the historic links sits on England’s northwest coast in Southport, roughly 20 miles north of Liverpool along the Irish Sea. It will play as a par 70 measuring 7,223 yards this week.

Unlike some Open Championship venues that feature wildly undulating fairways, Royal Birkdale is considered one of the fairest tests in links golf. The landing areas are relatively flat, but they’re framed by towering sand dunes – some reaching 40 feet high – that can obscure the wind and severely punish errant drives. The course’s deep fairway bunkers are among the most penal in championship golf, often forcing players to simply pitch back into the fairway rather than attack the green.

Several holes have also been updated since Birkdale last hosted The Open. The par-4 fifth is now a drivable 321 yards but features a pond short and right of the green along with seven surrounding bunkers, creating an enticing risk-reward opportunity. The par-3 seventh has been rebuilt near the coastline where crosswinds could play a significant role, while the par-5 14th has been lengthened to 605 yards and will likely require three shots for much of the field. A brand-new 241-yard par-3 now occupies the 15th hole, and the 18th hole has been stretched to over 500 yards, ensuring there will be no easy finish.

Accuracy Over Distance

While driving distance is always valuable, this is far from a course that can simply be overpowered.

Firm fairways should provide significant rollout – practice-round reports suggest even long irons are running close to 300 yards – which minimizes the advantage of the longest hitters off the tee. Instead, success at Royal Birkdale will come from positioning tee shots correctly, avoiding fairway bunkers, and excelling with approach play. This is very much a “second-shot golf course” where accuracy off the tee outweighs pure distance.

Around the greens, creativity will also be essential. The firm, fast conditions encourage players to land approach shots short and use the contours to feed the ball toward the hole rather than attacking flags through the air. Slower greens also reduce the advantage typically enjoyed by the Tour’s elite putters, placing an even greater emphasis on scrambling, sand saves, bogey avoidance, and recovery play when mistakes inevitably occur.

Weather Could Shape the Championship

As always at The Open, the weather will be impossible to ignore.

Current forecasts call for temperatures in the 70s with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts exceeding 20 mph throughout the championship. While those conditions are relatively manageable by Open Championship standards, a shift in wind direction could force players to attack several holes in completely different ways than they did during the opening rounds.

2026 Open Championship: Betting Guide

Unlike most PGA Tour events, links golf rewards a very specific type of player. Recent form certainly matters, but so does the ability to control ball flight, handle windy conditions, and remain patient when bad bounces inevitably happen.

This week’s betting cards reflect that philosophy. We’re targeting golfers entering the week in outstanding form, while sprinkling in a few players whose games seem tailor-made for an Open Championship.

The Open Championship Best Bets of the Week

After breaking down the board at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, these are the wagers we like most heading into Royal Birkdale.

Pat Fitzmaurice’s Best Bet: Wyndham Clark (+4100)

Wyndham Clark is simply one of the hottest golfers in the world right now.

He faded slightly down the stretch at the Genesis Scottish Open, but he was once again firmly in contention, continuing what’s become an incredibly impressive run of form. He’s nuclear. Molten lava hot.

The numbers back it up. In Bo’s predictive model, Clark ranks 15th over the last 24 rounds. Expand that sample to the last 36 rounds, however, and he falls all the way to 80th.

That’s an enormous jump – and evidence that Clark has elevated his game dramatically over the past couple of months. As long as sportsbooks continue hanging odds north of 40/1, we’re happy to keep backing him.

Pat Fitzmaurice’s Open Championship Picks

• Hard Rock Best Bet: Wyndham Clark (+4100)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+1850)
• Justin Rose (+3900)
• Tom Kim (+5900)
• Brian Harman Top 10 (including ties) (+640)

Matt Fitzpatrick is another player I love this week. In fact, I probably like him even more than Tommy Fleetwood. Justin Rose also stands out at nearly 40/1. At this stage of his career, Rose seems to save his very best golf for the majors, and returning to Royal Birkdale nearly three decades after making his Open Championship debut makes for an intriguing storyline.

Bo McBrayer’s Best Bet: Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)

Tommy Fleetwood finally winning his first major championship in his hometown? Sign me up.

Fleetwood has spent years knocking on the door at major championships, and there may never be a better opportunity than this one. Winning the Claret Jug in front of his hometown fans would instantly become one of the defining moments in modern British golf.

We thought Rory McIlroy might deliver a similar story at Royal Portrush. It didn’t happen. Maybe this is Fleetwood’s week instead.

Bo McBrayer’s Open Championship Picks

• Hard Rock Best Bet: Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)
• Tyrrell Hatton (+3600)
• Tom Kim (+5900)
• Michael Thorbjornsen (+12000)
• Johnny Keefer (+26000)

Fleetwood anchors my betting card, but I’m also taking some swings further down the board with players who have the ball-striking ability to thrive in links conditions.

The Shared Pick: Tom Kim

One player both of us landed on independently was Tom Kim.

Whenever our betting cards overlap, it’s worth paying attention.

Kim’s precision iron play and improving all-around game make him an intriguing fit for Royal Birkdale, and both of us were comfortable backing him at roughly 60/1.

Final Thoughts

The Open Championship has a way of producing unforgettable Sundays.

Maybe it’s Tommy Fleetwood lifting the Claret Jug in front of his hometown crowd. Maybe Wyndham Clark continues his scorching run of form. Or maybe another unexpected contender emerges from nowhere, as always seems to happen at The Open.

Whatever unfolds, we’re expecting another outstanding week of championship golf. Good luck with your bets, and enjoy the final major of the season.