The PGA Tour visits the Upper Midwest this week for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, just a few miles north of the Twin Cities.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is currently scheduled to play, and he is the only player ranked inside the top 30 of the Official World Golf Ranking in the field. Still, with the FedExCup Playoffs only a few weeks away, there is plenty at stake at the 3M Open, even if it is not a Signature Event with a star-studded field.
Course Preview: TPC Twin Cities
TPC Twin Cities is a par-71 layout measuring 7,431 yards. It was designed by Arnold Palmer with input from Minnesota native Tom Lehman.
TPC Twin Cities is a fairly long course, and water hazards come into play on 15 holes. However, the wide fairways and large bentgrass greens should make the course slightly easier than average and create plenty of low scores.
Three of the par 3s are longer than 200 yards, while all three par 5s measure between 590 and 600 yards.
The 18th hole is a particularly entertaining finishing hole. The risk-reward, dogleg par 5 dares players to go for the green in two with an approach shot over a large pond that runs down the right side of the hole and protects the front of the green.
This looks like a week to target ball strikers. Players hit greens in regulation at TPC Twin Cities at roughly a 73% rate, which is extremely high. That means players will not be doing much scrambling. Because this is a longer course with water nearly everywhere, a traditional bomb-and-gouge approach is not necessarily the answer.
Kurt Kitayama is the defending 3M Open champion after finishing 23-under par last year and defeating Sam Stevens by one stroke. Jhonattan Vegas won in 2024 at 17-under, Lee Hodges finished 24-under to win in 2023, and Tony Finau won at 17-under in 2022.
Weather Outlook for the 3M Open
The early forecast for Minneapolis calls for pleasant conditions Thursday and Friday, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the mid-80s.
Winds should remain light Thursday before becoming slightly breezier Friday. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low 90s Saturday, with winds of around 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday could be scorching hot, with temperatures approaching the upper 90s and only light wind.
What It Takes to Win at TPC Twin Cities
We are back in Birdie Fest City this week.
Approach play, and particularly proximity on approach shots, is the name of the game. Strokes gained on approach measures how players perform relative to the field with their approach shots, and proximity is part of that calculation. However, we are placing added emphasis on overall approach proximity this week because of the wide variety of approach distances players will face.
With such large greens, overall proximity carries far more weight than anything involving scrambling or play around the green. Those areas are not particularly important when separating this field. The main priorities are approach proximity and making a ton of birdies.
There is still some value in bogey avoidance because of all the water hazards, but the wide fairways make misses off the tee relatively forgiving. We also added some driving distance into the equation.
Bomb-and-gouge golf does not necessarily provide a major advantage here, but having extra distance in the bag can help shorten approach shots and allow players to attack more flags.
Hitting 73% of the greens is not enough if a player is leaving himself 30-foot birdie putts all day. To keep pace with the eventual winner, players have to hit it close and convert those opportunities. That is exactly what Kitayama did last year. He drove the ball 330 yards, hit short irons close and made birdies.
Every time we filter for easier scoring conditions, many of the same players begin to appear. We do not always see those names near the top of our models because most PGA Tour events play more difficult relative to par than the 3M Open.
2026 3M Open Favorites at Hard Rock Bet
As of Wednesday afternoon, Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite at +260 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
Kitayama is next at +2500, tied with Maverick McNealy. Tom Kim and Hideki Matsuyama are both +3000, while Keith Mitchell, Jake Knapp, and Jackson Koivun are all listed at +4000.
Is Scottie Scheffler Worth Betting at +260?
Scheffler can certainly win this tournament, provided he remains in the field before players tee off. It is somewhat surprising that he committed to this event so early in the season, and there is always a possibility he decides not to play. That is his right.
We would still be interested in exploring a market without Scheffler, but we are not betting him at +260 at Hard Rock Bet.
If he wins, good for anyone willing to lay that number. It would give Scheffler his second victory of the season and perhaps explain why he entered the event in the first place. He may simply want another win before the FedExCup Playoffs.
3M Open Best Bets of the Week
Now it is time for our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week for the 2026 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Best Bet: Jackson Suber (+5000)
My Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week is Jackson Suber at +5000.
I think the young man can get it done this week behind his outstanding iron play. At a course where approach proximity and birdie opportunities are so important, Suber has the type of profile that can contend.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s 3M Open Picks
- Kurt Kitayama (+2500)
- Tom Kim (+3000)
- Hard Rock Best Bet: Jackson Suber (+5000)
- Emiliano Grillo (+7500)
- Matti Schmid (+10000)
In addition to Suber, I am also betting Kitayama at 25-to-1.
I am going to ride the Tom Kim wave for one more week at 30-to-1. I am also backing Emiliano Grillo at 75-to-1 and joining Bo on Matti Schmid at 100-to-1.
Bo McBrayer’s Best Bet: Kurt Kitayama (+2500)
My selection was going to be Jackson Suber at +5000, but I will pivot and confidently take Kurt Kitayama at +2500.
For outright betting purposes, let’s pretend Scheffler does not exist. If he wins, great for him and bad for us – and basically everyone other than Scheffler. I am assuming Scheffler may simply be going through the motions here. If he burns us, so be it.
Kitayama at +2500 at Hard Rock Bet is a line I love, especially for the defending champion. TPC Twin Cities is a perfect fit for his game.
Bo McBrayer’s 3M Open Picks
- Hard Rock Best Bet: Kurt Kitayama (+2500)
- Jackson Suber (+5000)
- Max Homa (+5000)
- Michael Brennan (+7500)
- Jesper Svensson (+10000)
- Matti Schmid (+10000)
In addition to Kitayama and Suber, I am taking a chance on Max Homa at 50-to-1 and Michael Brennan at 75-to-1. Come on, Michael. Do something for me this season.
The two longshots on my card are Jesper Svensson and Matti Schmid, both at 100-to-1.
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