It’s Week 8 in the NFL, and I’ve got some Thursday Night Football player props for Panthers at Packers.
Green Bay is laying 3.5 points at Lambeau Field, and the total has climbed from 46.5 to 47.5.
Carolina’s secondary has been dealing with some significant injuries, but the Panthers have also struggled against the run. That’s where I want to start.
Josh Jacobs Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
The first prop I like is Packers running back Josh Jacobs Over 58.5 Rushing Yards.
I think this is a great buy-low spot for Jacobs, who rushed for just 36 yards against Detroit in his first game of the season.
The Lions are a much better run defense. In fact, they excel against the run and struggle more against the pass.
Now Jacobs gets a Carolina defense that has struggled to stop the run for the last two or three years.
In Jacobs’ last 10 home primetime games, he’s averaging 67 rushing yards per game and has gone over 58.5 rushing yards in seven of those 10 matchups.
When those home primetime games have come against defenses ranked in the bottom 10 against the run, his numbers are even better.
Jacobs is averaging 98 rushing yards per game in those situations, clearing 58.5 rushing yards in all four matchups.
Carolina currently has the worst run defense in the NFL. Eight of the 12 running backs to face the Panthers this season have gone over their rushing-yard props.
This is the kind of matchup where I want to take advantage of a low number.
Buy low on Josh Jacobs. Give me Over 58.5 Rushing Yards at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
Jordan Love Under 21.5 Completions
Let’s stick with Green Bay, because I’m also looking at Jordan Love Under 21.5 Completions.
I am a little concerned about the injuries to Carolina’s secondary. Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are both out, and we’ve seen a difference in the Panthers’ pass defense over the last three weeks.
Two of the last three quarterbacks to face Carolina have gone over their passing yard and completion props.
However, this is still a matchup where Green Bay can attack on the ground.
If you can beat the Panthers with Josh Jacobs and the running game, why throw?
Love is averaging just under 18 completions per game over his last 10 home primetime appearances. He’s finished under 21.5 completions in six of those 10 games.
Carolina has also allowed the 10th-fewest completions per game to opposing quarterbacks, at approximately 20 per game.
I prefer fading completions rather than pass attempts because a completed pass requires both the quarterback and receiver to execute.
With pass attempts, I’m only relying on the quarterback to throw the football.
That’s why I like overs on pass attempts and unders on completions.
Give me Jordan Love Under 21.5 Completions.
Jordan Love Under 260.5 Passing Yards
My next prop is another under for Jordan Love, this time Under 260.5 Passing Yards.
Love has thrown for at least 270 yards in three straight games, but none of those performances came against a top-10 pass defense. In fact, one came against a defense ranked in the bottom 10.
Now he’s facing a Carolina defense that, despite its secondary injuries, has still allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game to quarterbacks at 208.
In Love’s last 10 home games against defenses ranked in the top 10 against the pass, he’s averaged just 178 passing yards per game.
He’s gone under 260.5 passing yards in seven of those 10 matchups.
There’s another trend I like here.
As a home favorite of 3.5 points or more, Love is averaging 216 passing yards per game and has finished under this number in seven of his last 10 games.
If Green Bay is favored by at least 3.5 points, the Packers can attack through the running game. Maybe they even build a lead and start running the football more.
That’s fewer opportunities for Love to reach 261 passing yards.
Again, my hesitation is Carolina’s injured secondary. That’s something you have to consider when looking at either of these Jordan Love props.
But for me, it’s under or nothing on Love’s passing yards and completions.
Bryce Young Under 256.5 Passing Yards
On the other side of this matchup, I’m looking at Panthers quarterback Bryce Young Under 256.5 Passing Yards.
Young has struggled to put up big passing numbers on the road against top-10 pass defenses.
In four of those matchups, he’s gone under this number three times, averaging just 175 passing yards per game.
He’s also gone under in both of his road primetime appearances, finishing with 185 and 169 passing yards.
Now he has to face a Green Bay defense that’s allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards per game this season.
Four of the six quarterbacks to face the Packers have gone under their passing-yard props.
I also really like what Green Bay has in its secondary.
Safeties Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams have been awesome, particularly in coverage.
McKinney already has three interceptions this season, and he’s been great at picking off opposing quarterbacks.
That’s going to make things difficult for Bryce Young.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Young throws an interception in this game, either.
With the way these two defenses match up against the quarterbacks, I’m starting to think maybe I should take the under on the game total as well.
For Young, though, I’m taking Under 256.5 Passing Yards.
Darren Waller Under 19.5 Receiving Yards
Another place you can look to fade the Panthers is at tight end, starting with Darren Waller Under 19.5 Receiving Yards.
Green Bay has been the toughest defense in football against tight ends this season.
The Packers are allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to the position, giving up just under 33 yards per game.
That’s why nine of the 12 tight ends to face Green Bay have gone under their receiving yard props.
Waller has become more of the primary tight end for Carolina, but this is still a really difficult matchup for the position.
When you’re facing a defense that has been this good at limiting tight ends, it’s a spot where I want to look at the unders.
Waller’s number is sitting at 19.5 receiving yards, and that’s one way you can approach this matchup.
Tommy Tremble Under 15.5 Receiving Yards
The other Carolina tight end I’m looking to fade is Tommy Tremble Under 15.5 Receiving Yards.
I actually see a little more of an edge on Tremble’s under than Waller’s.
Waller has become the primary tight end in Carolina’s offense, which makes Tremble the secondary option.
And if the Packers are already the best defense in the NFL against tight ends, maybe it’s even tougher for the secondary tight end to find opportunities.
Remember, Green Bay is allowing fewer than 33 receiving yards per game to the entire position, and nine of 12 opposing tight ends have finished under their receiving yard props.
Tremble’s number is lower than Waller’s at 15.5, but I still think this is a good spot to look at the under.
Whether it’s Waller or Tremble, the Panthers’ tight ends are facing one of the toughest matchups they could get.
Between the two, I see a stronger edge on Tommy Tremble Under 15.5 Receiving Yards.
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