NFL Week 2 is here and we’ve got some props. I’ve got my top five for the week, all available at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
I am shocked by some of the numbers we saw last week. We’re already seeing some overreactions heading into Week 2, but you have to remember how different these matchups can be from one week to the next.
If you had a player with a great matchup last week, congratulations. This week could be a completely different story.
That’s where we’re going to start with prop number one.
Aaron Rodgers Under 34.5 Pass Attempts
I’m starting with Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers Under 34.5 Pass Attempts against the New England Patriots.
Rodgers is coming off 40 pass attempts last week, but that was at home in Pittsburgh against an Atlanta secondary that is way worse than New England’s. This is a great sell-high spot for Rodgers.
On the road as an underdog last year, Rodgers went under 34.5 pass attempts in two of three games, finishing with 31, 34 and 41 attempts. He also went under this number in both of his recent games in Foxboro, including just 23 pass attempts last year.
New England has ranked inside the top 10 in pass attempts allowed per game dating back to last season. The Patriots ranked eighth last year, limiting quarterbacks to just under 31 attempts per game, and allowed only 24 in Week 1, the fifth-fewest in the league.
Seven of the last 10 quarterbacks to face the Patriots have gone under their pass-attempt prop. The Patriots’ secondary has locked down the pass and also ranks eighth in passing yards allowed per game.
This is going to be a really tough matchup for Rodgers in the air, so I’m taking him under 34.5 pass attempts.
Jauan Jennings Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
This is my sleeper play of the entire weekend. I should have saved this for last, but I’m just so excited about it because I already bet it Thursday morning. I am obsessed with this because it is one of the best buy-low situations of the week.
I’m taking Vikings wide receiver Jauan Jennings Over 17.5 Receiving Yards.
Jennings had zero receptions on one target last week, but last year he averaged just under 42 receiving yards per game with San Francisco. He’s not some receiver no one knows about.
He’s like a No. 3 in Minnesota, but he also has great history against the Chicago Bears relative to this number. Jennings has finished with 62, 90 and 42 receiving yards through his last three games against this terrible Bears secondary.
Against teams that rank bottom 10 in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers, Jennings is averaging just over 63 receiving yards per game. Chicago ranked 26th last year in receiving yards allowed to the position and 28th in Week 1, allowing 213 receiving yards.
Jauan Jennings is gonna get a lot of action this week. Over 17.5 receiving yards is great for a secret weapon that Minnesota clearly didn’t utilize last week. It just makes me like it so much more.
Gunnar Helm Under 22.5 Receiving Yards
As for Tennessee, I know no one wants anything to do with the Titans. In my newsletter, I’m going to tell you why Cam Ward has an absolutely fishy line and why his number is a little too low.
But I hope it’s low because I like Titans tight end Gunnar Helm Under 22.5 Receiving Yards against Philadelphia.
One of my favorite trends for the last couple of years has been fading tight ends when facing the Eagles. Against defenses that rank top 10 against tight ends, Helm is averaging just under 15 receiving yards and has gone under this number in five of six games.
That’s also a 10-yard drop-off from his overall average across his last 20 games. He’s averaging about 25 receiving yards per game over that span, but that drops to about 15 when he’s facing a team that ranks top 10 against tight ends.
Philly is definitely in that group. Last year, the Eagles allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game to the position, and they allowed the eighth-fewest in Week 1. They gave up just 29 yards to a tight end last week, so they’re still inside the top 10 even though it’s only a one-game sample size.
Do not expect much from Gunnar Helm here. If Cam Ward wants to go over his passing yard prop, he’s going to need to find someone else because it’s not going to be Helm in the middle of the field against a really stout linebacker corps in Philly.
Ashton Jeanty Under 26.5 Receiving Yards
For my running back prop, I actually like a kind of unique market. I love the receiving yard market for running backs, whether it’s fading it, taking overs or whatever.
I’m going with Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty Under 26.5 Receiving Yards.
Jeanty just had 45 receiving yards against Miami last week, making this another great sell-high spot. Now he’s getting the Chargers, who rank top 10 in receiving yards allowed per game to running backs.
Jeanty is averaging just over 21 receiving yards per game against defenses that rank top 10 in receiving yards allowed to running backs. This number at 26.5 is too high.
Even against the AFC West, Jeanty is averaging just 10 receiving yards per game and has gone under 26.5 receiving yards in five of six divisional games.
The Chargers’ defense has shut down backs in the passing game, allowing the fifth-fewest receiving yards to the position. Jeanty is gonna have a lot less space to work in the outlet, so we’re going under 26.5 receiving yards.
AJ Barner Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
I’ve got one more play, and I know that you might be a little skeptical of this one.
I actually faded Barner last week, and this is why I love betting. In the betting world, you can fade someone one week and love him the next. Last week was a really bad matchup for him. This week is a really good one.
I’m taking Seattle tight end AJ Barner Over 20.5 Receiving Yards. The number is so low for him.
On the road against teams that rank bottom 10 against tight ends, Barner is averaging just under 35 receiving yards per game and has gone over this number in five of the last six. On the road last year in general, he averaged just under 38 receiving yards per game.
Yes, he had a bad week last week with just 13 receiving yards against New England, but they’re a top-10 defense against tight ends. Arizona is bottom 10 in receiving yards allowed to the position. The Cardinals ranked 30th last year and allowed 90 receiving yards to tight ends last week.
Barner is in a great spot even though he doesn’t have his quarterback in Sam Darnold. I probably should caution this a little bit because it’s Drew Lock, but I’m going to take the risk here on a very low number in a great matchup.
There are so many other plays that I also have my eye on, but those are the top five early numbers that I really like.
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