College Football Week 3 Picks & Predictions: FSU-Bama, LSU-Ole Miss & More

Week 3 is here, and we’ve got games to break down.

We’ve got Friday night football in the Big 12, a big Saturday night at Jordan-Hare, a game in Columbia where I think we’ve got fireworks on the way and an LSU-Ole Miss matchup I’ll be in attendance for.

Houston (+8.5) vs. Texas Tech

We start on Friday night in the Big 12, where Houston goes on the road to face Texas Tech.

The key to the matchup for me is Conner Weigman’s legs.

If Houston is going to maintain efficiency offensively, keep the ball away from Texas Tech, continue to convert the sticks and live ahead of schedule, the Cougars have to be willing to run their quarterback. They sure as hell were last year.

Houston had three games over the back end of last season where Weigman had more than 20 rushing attempts. We’re talking about designed rushes 10 times a game. They were giving him the rock and making him tote that thing.

I think he’s their way to efficiency in this football game.

On the other side, does Texas Tech get forced to rely on Will Hammond to win the game? Houston has been outstanding against the run, and I don’t think Hammond has been all that good from an aggressiveness standpoint. He went 20-of-27 for 189 yards last week, but it was a lot of underneath stuff.

If Texas Tech has to methodically move the football, I expect Austin Armstrong to dial some things up to get the Red Raiders behind the sticks. Hammond is going to have to drive the ball down the field and be aggressive.

Texas Tech’s passing defense is another X-factor. They’re ranked 119th in the country, and Houston is a team we feel could open things up. If that’s the case, Houston has a legitimate shot at winning this football game.

Prediction: Houston 27, Texas Tech 24

North Carolina (+3.5) vs. Clemson

I really wonder if this Clemson offense can score enough points to win this football game.

Neither of these offenses is really built to march the ball down the field methodically right now, so which one is going to get more explosives? Who gets that 30-yard play or busted coverage that turns into a field goal or touchdown?

That’s what’s going to win this football game. I think this is going to be a low-scoring affair.

It ultimately comes down to whether Clemson can keep Christopher Vizzina or Tate Reynolds, whoever plays the majority of the game, clean. North Carolina had five sacks against TCU, and normally I’d sit here and say Clemson’s offensive line is probably better than TCU’s. I don’t know if I can necessarily say that right now.

This North Carolina defensive line is legit. Both defensive tackles and the defensive end can get after it.

For that reason, I think Reynolds in the designed quarterback run game could become an X-factor. On the North Carolina side, tight end Jelani Thurman is their leading receiver and had a big game against TCU. He’s somebody who can give them explosives.

Prediction: North Carolina 20, Clemson 17

Kentucky (+17.5) vs. Texas A&M

I think Texas A&M’s defense is going to be a little bit too much.

That front is real, as Arizona State figured out, and I would imagine Kentucky becomes rather one-dimensional pretty quickly in this football game.

For Texas A&M offensively, it’s about finding consistency. I believe this offense is going to get rolling at some point. They have so much talent on that side of the ball that it’s hard for me to believe they’re going to continue being as up and down as they were against Arizona State.

My X-factor is Marcel Reed. Can he play clean enough not to spot Kentucky possessions? There were plenty of turnover-worthy plays from him against Arizona State, and he just can’t give Kentucky extra possessions.

I also want to see Mario Craver get going. He only has 75 receiving yards through two games, with 40 of those coming on one play. He was one of Texas A&M’s most explosive playmakers last season outside of KC Concepcion. If this offense is going to reach its full potential, Craver needs to play a massive role.

Third down also plays heavily in A&M’s favor. Kentucky is 134th in third-down percentage at 18.2%, while Texas A&M’s defense ranks eighth, allowing opponents to convert at that same 18.2% rate.

Prediction: Texas A&M 31, Kentucky 17

Florida State vs. Alabama (-19.5)

We can be quick here because I think this game’s going to be out of hand pretty quickly.

The key to the matchup is simple: blitz pickup for Alabama.

Have you watched Florida State on third down lately? Cover zero. Send the house. And if you miss a tackle, it can become a 75-yard touchdown. I think we’re going to see the same thing this week.

The bigger question is whether Alabama does anything to keep Florida State in this game. That’s the reason the Seminoles’ game against SMU was so close. Jennings and company kept turning the ball over and committing penalties to provide Florida State opportunities.

If Alabama does half of what SMU did, they’ll win this game by 20 points.

I think the only way Florida State can win is if an offensive player just outperforms Alabama’s entire defense. Is Duce Robinson going for 200 yards? Is Ousmane Kromah rushing for 170? Does Ashton Daniels have the game of his career? Something like that would need to happen.

My X-factor is Alabama’s length at defensive back against a quarterback in Daniels who loves throwing balls into tight windows. Yhonzae Pierre is another one because he’s really freaking good – good luck to Florida State trying to stop him.

Prediction: Alabama 38, Florida State 10

SMU (+1.5) vs. Louisville

This one comes down to quarterbacks playing within themselves and hitting the layups.

For Kevin Jennings, play within yourself a little bit. Don’t try to do too much. For Lincoln Kienholz, hit the layups.

These are two really dynamic quarterbacks and two guys who are really good at freestyling. The question is who’s going to turn the football over more because we’ve seen both make incredible plays, but we’ve also seen them put the ball at risk.

In a high-scoring matchup, I think that’s going to be the deciding factor.

With SMU, you can basically copy and paste the same key to the matchup every week: Kevin Jennings turnovers. That’s going to dictate every game for them. They got away with it against Florida State by some miracle. You can’t expect to throw multiple interceptions in a conference game and win every time.

For Louisville, can they finally get Isaac Brown loose? He’s had 29 carries for 97 yards through two games. He’s gotten more work than he did over any two-game stretch last season and doesn’t have 100 yards yet.

I think we’re going to get an absolute chaotic shootout.

Prediction: SMU 30, Louisville 27

Mississippi State (+3.5) vs. South Carolina

I think we’ve got fireworks on the way.

This game is going to be must-see television. Both of these football teams want to play really, really fast and get plenty of snaps in. When these offensive coordinators get into a game where it’s a rush to score 50, we might see 90 snaps on both sides of the football.

I think it’s going to be an epic showdown.

One of the biggest questions is how Kamario Taylor handles the environment in his first SEC road start. He’s eventually got to go to LSU, but Columbia is going to be raucous. How does he perform in that?

Team discipline is another X-factor. Mississippi State ranks 107th in the FBS at 69 penalty yards per game. In a game where we think there are going to be explosives everywhere, what happens if a touchdown gets called back for a hold or an offsides penalty extends a drive? The margins are going to be thin.

Then there’s Dylan Stewart. If he plays, how effective is he? He’s supposed to be one of South Carolina’s best players, and his presence could make a major difference.

But give me the fireworks. I think Nyck Harbor and Anthony Evans can turn this thing into a track meet.

Prediction: Mississippi State 38, South Carolina 35

Florida (-2.5) vs. Auburn

We’ve got a big one Saturday night at Auburn, and I think the biggest question is how DJ Durkin plans to slow down Buster Faulkner’s Florida offense.

I don’t think Auburn wants to get into a shootout here. The Tigers need their defense to dictate the game, find a way to limit Florida’s explosive plays and get enough from Byrum Brown and the offense to stay in front. I think it’ll be close, but I’m taking the Gators.

Prediction: Florida 27, Auburn 20

For a deeper look at the Faulkner-Durkin matchup and the biggest X-factors on both sides, check out my full Florida vs. Auburn preview.

LSU vs. Ole Miss (+2.5)

We finish in Oxford with a game that has a little bit of everything. There’s the familiarity between Lane Kiffin and Pete Golding, the emotion surrounding Kiffin’s return and two quarterbacks capable of creating problems with their legs.

Turnovers are going to be a major factor, and so is which team handles the emotion of this game without trying to do too much.

I think we’re getting an instant classic, with Ole Miss finding a way to win by one.

Prediction: Ole Miss 35, LSU 34

For my complete breakdown of Kiffin vs. Golding, Sam Leavitt and everything else I’m watching in Oxford, check out my full LSU vs. Ole Miss preview.