Spain vs Belgium Predictions, Best Bets, Current Odds for the World Cup Quarterfinals

The World Cup quarterfinals continue on Friday afternoon as the action shifts back to the West Coast for Spain vs. Belgium at SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles Stadium, if we’re being technical).

Despite being two of Europe’s footballing giants, this is rarefied air for both nations. Spain and Belgium have each reached the World Cup semifinals just once in their history – Spain famously going on to lift the trophy in South Africa in 2010, while Belgium’s “Golden Generation” reached the final four in Russia in 2018 before falling 1-0 to eventual champions France. Make no mistake: this is an absolutely massive match in every sense of the word, with a glamour tie against France in the semifinals at stake

To mark the occasion, I’ve prepared a full complement of Spain vs. Belgium predictions and betting picks for anyone looking to wager on the game. As always, all odds and insights come from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, where you can bet on everything from who advances, to goalscorers, to same-game parlays. Let’s set the table.

Spain vs. Belgium: Current Odds

Let’s start with the 3-way moneyline, which factors in all three possible results after the first 90 minutes (plus stoppage time, of course) of a soccer game. Right now Spain, the pre-tournament favorite to lift the cup, are also favored here to win in regular time against Belgium.

• 🇪🇸 Spain to Win Odds: -165
• 🪢 Tie/Draw Odds: +300
• 🇧🇪 Belgium to Win Odds: +475

Odds to Advance – Belgium vs Spain

At the end of the day this is knockout round soccer: win or go home… and one of these teams will go home. Bettors who want to distill their choice down to something that binary can opt for the ‘To Advance’ market on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook where the only thing that matters is who moves on. It doesn’t matter if we draw at the end of regular time, or if penalty kicks are needed – if the team you bet to advance does, the ticket is a winner. Current odds to advance for Spain vs Belgium are:

• 🇪🇸 Spain to Advance: -350
• 🇧🇪 Belgium to Advance: +250

How big of a favorite is Spain to beat Belgium?

Spain were the pre-tourney favorite and are the betting favorite in this match as well… but how big of a favorite are they?

I like to pull up a handy odds calculator tool and plug in the numbers to see the implied probability of each team moving on. Using the current Spain-Belgium odds (above):

• Spain has roughly a 78% chance to win and advance to the semifinal
• Belgium has an implied probability to advance of 28%.

Spain vs. Belgium Predictions

Now for the fun part: betting picks and predictions for Belgium vs Spain. As always, I’m starting in the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub for insights, info, and trends to help me land on a winner.  Yesterday it helped put me on to three winners for France vs Morocco, including the exact score of 2-0. Here’s what stands out for Spain-Belgium:

Spain vs Belgium Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals +105

I’ll be honest here, Stats Hub is offering up a lot of insights that would steer me in the opposite direction for this one. Lukaku has a goal in three straight, over 3.5 goals has hit in each of Belgium’s last 3 games, and there are some encouraging Belgium both teams to score trends, too… but at the end of the day, the data for those trends was compiled against teams that aren’t nearly as good as Spain.

This Spanish side, the reigning European Champions, haven’t conceded a goal yet at the 2026 World Cup. They play a suffocating style of football that prevents their opponents from finding any sort of momentum or rythem. Against Portugal, who have a world class midfield by the way, they dominated possession, put six shots on goal vs Portugal’s two, and looked comfortable as they nicked it late with a stoppage time winner.

Taking the under side of an over/under bet may not be the most fun to sweat, but if this one is sitting at 0-0 at half, which it very well could be, it’s the side I want to be on. Oh, and we’re getting it at plus money, too.

Spain vs Belgium Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Dani Olmo +260

I wouldn’t begrudge anyone for taking a shot at Mikel Oyarzabal to score – I like that one a lot. He’s scored four times so far at the World Cup, and quite deservedly he’s got the shortest odds of any player on the pitch to score today. That said, we’re going to dig slightly deeper and look for value with Dani Olmo at +260 to score on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Olmo plays as an attacking midfielder in this possession-based Spanish side and while he hasn’t scored yet so far in the World Cup, he does have goals in him. He’s scored twenty times in two seasons at Barcelona, and entering 2026 he had scored 12 times for Spain in just 46 caps. He’s 0 for 9 so far in 2026 so 12 in 55 doesn’t look quite as appealing, but you could say he’s due to make an impact on the scoresheet.

Super Sub: Mikel Merino

Further, this is Spain’s sixth game at this World Cup which means our sample size is getting larger and we’re starting to see trends form with substitutions. Mikel Merino has replaced Olmo in each of Spain’s last five games, and while he’s not known as a prolific striker in his own right, he can score goals. He has a good goal scoring record over the last two seasons for Arsenal which included a stint as the stand-in center forward, he bagged 8 goals in 10 games for Spain in 2025, and he got the winner against Portugal in the Round of 16.

With Hard Rock Bet’s Super Sub promotion, if Olmo is replaced by Merino – which seems to be the trend – he continues our bet and we get a talented and versatile finisher for the last portion of the game.

Looking ahead: Spain-Belgium World Cup Futures

With just seven teams remaining in the tournament the futures odds for the World Cup are really starting to narrow. There are fewer true underdogs left in the field and the finish line is coming firmly into focus. Whoever survives this clash of European titans will see their odds to win the World Cup, and make the final, slashed – so if you like either side, betting it pre-match is a great option to lock in a better price.

Spain World Cup Futures (Before the Quarterfinals)

• 🇪🇸 Current Spain to Win the World Cup Odds: +400 (4/1)
• 🇪🇸 Current Spain to Reach the Final Odds: +180 (1.8/1)

Belgium World Cup Futures (Before the Quarterfinals)

• 🇧🇪 Current Belgium to Win the World Cup Odds: +3000 (30/1)
• 🇧🇪 Current Belgium to Reach the Final Odds: +1100 (11/1)

Spain vs Belgium Match Info: When, Where, TV

• 📍 Location: Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium), Los Angeles, CA
• 📅 Date: Friday, July 10
• ⏰ Start Time: 3:00pm ET
• 📺 Where to Watch: FOX, Telemundo
• 🏆 Stage: World Cup Knockout – Quarterfinal

All referenced odds are subject to change.