Jason Timpf’s Knicks vs. Spurs NBA Finals Preview, Picks & Predictions

Welcome back to Hoops Tonight.

This is step one of our NBA Finals preview.

It’s going to be pretty straightforward – I’m going to give you guys the season series info, the series prices from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, and then we’ll talk a little bit about both ends of the floor.

Regular Season Series Recap

The season series finished 2-1 in favor of the Knicks.

Knicks Take the NBA Cup

We had the NBA Cup Championship first. The Spurs actually had a 12-point lead late in the third quarter of that one. The Knicks made five threes in the next five minutes, spanning the final two minutes of the third quarter and the early fourth quarter. That flipped the script on the lead and ended up putting the Knicks up five. Then they basically stiff-armed the Spurs from there.

This was also one of the games where the Knicks lit up the scoreboard against Wemby. The Knicks had a great offensive rating basically in every game, but most of it had to do with them having success against units that didn’t have Wemby on the floor in the other two games. In the Cup Championship game, the Knicks offense scored very effectively against Victor Wembanyama. Again, they did hold up better in the next two.

Spurs Strike Back at Home

The second game was a close Spurs win in San Antonio. Wemby goes for 31 in this game, but he leaves early with an injury. This was also the game that he was primarily guarded by OG Anunoby.

There’s been a lot of discussion about OG as a primary matchup for Wemby. I personally wouldn’t go that route. Not to say that you can’t do it from time to time during the series, especially in specific lineups, but I really like Anunoby as a matchup for Steph Castle.

The Knicks had an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter of this game after Wemby had left, and the Spurs came back to win without him. This was the Julian Champagnie game. He had 11 threes and a season-high 36 points against the Knicks.

That was a close Spurs win. The Knicks hit a garbage-time three late that cut it to two, but San Antonio was hovering around a five-point lead down the stretch.

Knicks Roll at MSG

The third game was in Madison Square Garden on March 1. This was probably the best game to watch in this matchup while prepping for the series because the lineups looked relatively similar to what they are today. The Spurs finally had moved Champagnie into the starting lineup in Barnes’ spot, and the Knicks had their typical starting five.

This is the game, if you’re a Knicks fan, that you’re looking at as the biggest piece of evidence that you can beat this team.

This was during a part of the season when the Spurs were killing everyone. In fact, this Knicks win was smack dab in the middle of a 17-game stretch where the Spurs won every single other game with the exception of this loss to the Knicks. They had won 11 in a row before the game and they won five in a row after. So, the Knicks rolled up and beat the heck out of a peaking San Antonio Spurs team.

The Spurs did jump out to an early lead in this one, but the Knicks basically kicked their ass wire-to-wire from the last few minutes of the first quarter all the way through to the finish line. They hit 17 threes. They turned the Spurs over 22 times for 24 points and ended up winning by 25.

Breaking Down the Numbers

Pulling up numbers and statistical evidence from this is complicated because the NBA Cup game exists in an entirely different filter system from most of the platforms I use. So I’m just going to give you big-picture data.

The main areas that the Knicks dominated this matchup: 54 made threes in the three games. They did an amazing job of moving the ball versus the loaded-up Spurs defense for clean looks at threes. They also dominated points off turnovers and fast-break points. A couple of those things are connected.

The points off turnovers, I think, have a lot to do with the Knicks’ size and how the Spurs guards – and Victor Wembanyama himself – struggled to turn the corner or gain an advantage against bigger, stronger players compared to the dynamic against the Thunder, where the guards were smaller.

The number of threes that they get and the fast-break points are tied together because there is a lot of funky stuff with the matchups in this series. Players are guarding different people on either end of the floor, which creates cross matches. Whenever there is an interchange from offense to defense or vice versa, there’s usually a guy who needs to go guard somebody on the other end of the floor because he was guarding somebody else on the previous possession.

Those cross matches are a big part of why the Spurs ended up giving up a lot of openings in transition off those interchanges. It just felt like they weren’t matched up a lot of the time.

That’s going to be a tricky thing to watch as the series progresses: how much those cross matches end up favoring the Knicks. They did have a substantial advantage in fast-break points, points off turnovers and, again, a huge advantage at the three-point line.

Knicks vs. Spurs Series Price at Hard Rock Bet

The Spurs are a -200 favorite at Hard Rock Bet. The Knicks are a +170 underdog.

I can tell you right now that I think the best value is easily on the Knicks at +170. I think this is an extremely close series – effectively a coin flip – and you’re getting nearly 2-1 odds on the Knicks side of this.

Even if you think the Spurs are going to win but it’ll be super close, I just don’t like that line as much as I do Knicks +170. I think that’s the value bet in this particular case.

New York’s Offensive Outlook

Let’s start with the Knicks on offense.

Starting with the initial matchups, the way it looked in that March 1 game – which is the closest thing we’re going to get to what it looks like in this coming playoff series – Victor Wembanyama started on Josh Hart. That caused some problems with KAT underneath the rim. Steph Castle guarded Karl-Anthony Towns. De’Aaron Fox guarded Jalen Brunson. Devin Vassell was on Mikal Bridges, and Julian Champagnie was on OG Anunoby. Several things about this look give the Spurs trouble.

For one, KAT has a massive size advantage against basically every Spurs rotation player outside of Wemby and Kornet. He had some success against Castle just catching and ripping, using his size to turn the corner against Castle with quick moves, quick decision-making and then the offensive glass.

This is where, especially when Wemby is coming closer to the level against Brunson in ball screens involving Hart, even if Wemby is just up at the foul line when the shot goes up, it creates this inside-seal dynamic where Towns has an opportunity to get good offensive rebounding position underneath the basket.

Starting KAT is just a funky matchup for them. He’s this big, physical forward who probably isn’t going to be guarded by Wemby, at least not to start the series, which means he’s going to be operating with physical advantages all over the floor against basically anybody who plays for this group.

One of the biggest things that stood out in the film was Brunson’s willingness to take and make drop coverage threes. In this case, mostly from Hart screens.

Wembanyama is guarding Hart and wants to roam back around the basket. So if Hart sets a good pick on Fox out front, and Wemby wants to hang back around the basket – or near the basket, call it the foul line, call it the semicircle, wherever he might be hanging back – it creates this opening for Brunson to take a three off the dribble against that deep drop.

Brunson is not a better basketball player than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That would be a foolish thing for any of us to think. But Brunson is actually, in many ways, the perfect example of why Shai needs to add a ton of versatility.

One of the reasons why I flat out expect Brunson to have a better series against the Spurs than Shai did is this specific dynamic. He will take and make pull-up threes against the drop coverage. In that March 1 game, I think he hit three or four of them. He will take those. He will work out of off-ball action. He will go off the ball and be a screener.

All the things that I’ve said Shai needs to add to his game, Brunson is kind of already doing.

Is Brunson going to be as impactful at the straight ISO game that Shai is arguably the best in the league at? No. But his versatile attack actually lines up really well with the way the Knicks want to attack this Spurs defense.

It creates this dynamic where Brunson can pretty cleanly step into these pull-up threes as long as Hart sets a good screen. If the guard chases over the top and stays attached to Brunson, Hart is wide open on the pop. As we saw in the Cavs series, Hart can have cold shooting games, but he can also get super hot and do a ton of damage.

If you stay attached to Brunson, Hart is open on the pop. And even if Brunson misses the pull-up three after a good screen, if Wemby is up around the foul line, it creates an offensive rebound advantage underneath the basket for all the Knicks players. That includes OG, Mikal Bridges and Towns. They’re all carrying size advantages into the equation after the shot goes up.

Lastly, all the cross matches make San Antonio vulnerable in transition.

When you have Wemby guarding Hart and Castle guarding KAT, but KAT is not the guy guarding Castle on the other end of the floor, it creates this dynamic where everyone is running around to a different body as things transition to defense. That ends up causing problems when a Knicks team is really good at moving the ball up the floor and finding that quick open man to attack early in the shot clock.

I think it’s going to be difficult for San Antonio to handle all the cross matching that takes place in this matchup.

The Spurs’ Potential Counters

One of the main dynamics we saw in the regular season was the Knicks’ ability to pull Wemby away from the rim because of their three-point shooting.

I wonder how much we’ll see Sean Sweeney counter this with that one-man zone concept. We saw this a lot in the early part of the Thunder series and it didn’t work super well. But I wonder if that’s something we’ll see the Spurs try: pre-switch anything involving a screener running up to go get Brunson open so that they can keep Wemby on that backline as much as possible.

That’s going to be an interesting part of the chess match.

In general, on the film, Brunson looks really comfortable against the Spurs guards. It’s a very different matchup. He’s low to the ground. It’s very herky-jerky. It’s a very different type of attack than the Shai’s, “I’m going to drive into your chest and push off and shoot tough contested fadeaways” style.

Not that Brunson doesn’t take tough contested shots. He certainly does. But Brunson’s attack is much more dependent on quickness, change of direction and change of pace. He’s lower to the ground. He has a legitimate quickness advantage versus a lot of the Spurs guards that I think is going to bode well for him in this matchup. On film, Brunson looked pretty comfortable getting to his spots.

A couple of last quick hitters before we move to the Spurs on offense:

Mohamed Diawara played quite a bit in the regular season matchup. He had a game where he took 13 threes, I think. I think that was the March game. We don’t know too many details about the Mitchell Robinson injury and just how effective he’s going to be. I wonder if, instead of going with Ariel Hukporti, they just go small and play more Diawara if Mitch is not able to be impactful. But I do think Mitch will end up playing.

The Knicks always have the option to go toward Landry Shamet for more shooting. For instance, if just leaving Hart open is working because Josh isn’t making shots, they can always go toward Landry and basically put the Spurs in the predicament of not really having somebody they can help off of.

I do think that we will see, at least at some point in the series, Wemby move over to KAT for the simple dynamic that KAT is having so many size advantages around the basket, and it gives Wemby a better chance to hang back. Then I think they would rotate to the pop. If KAT sets a pick-and-pop, Wemby would drop back to the basket, and then we’d see something similar to that one-man zone where they would rotate to KAT from the weak side and Wemby would naturally move toward whoever is in the weak-side corner.

Lastly, Jordan Clarkson had a big moment against the Spurs in the Cup Championship game this year. He hit a bunch of threes and made a bunch of plays in the fourth quarter. He hasn’t been in the rotation too much in this postseason run, but I’m curious to see if he ends up getting an opportunity to play in this series.

San Antonio’s Offensive Outlook

Let’s move to the Spurs on offense.

These initial matchups are what I think the Knicks should do. I’m not necessarily sure this is what they are going to do. This is what I would do, though, if I was coaching the Knicks for how to match up with the Spurs on offense.

I would put OG on Castle instead of deploying him on someone like Wembanyama.

There are a couple of specific reasons for that.

One, I actually think KAT does a really good job on Wemby. Foul trouble will be an interesting thing there. I think one of the biggest subplots of this series is Wembanyama’s ability to get KAT in foul trouble and force him to leave the floor.

But KAT, when he beats Wemby to spots and is physical with his hands, does a pretty good job of doing basically what Hartenstein did: using his strength and lower center of gravity to prevent Wemby from getting deep paint touches.

That’s the first part of it. I actually just like the KAT matchup on Wemby.

The second piece is that OG Anunoby is the perfect type of big, physical forward to neutralize the way Castle likes to drive the basketball. Castle is not a first-step quickness, light-you-up-with-speed type of guard. He’s very Jimmy Butler-esque in the way that he plays off two feet constantly and methodically works his way into the lane using his size and strength. OG can counter that because he is bigger and stronger.

I like that specific dynamic with OG on Castle and KAT on Wemby because not only do I think they both guard their matchups well, but it also gives them the ability to switch that action, especially with Castle’s sketchy three-point shot.

If KAT ends up on Castle on a switch, he can give space and basically force him to take a contested pull-up. Then you have OG on Wemby, where he can cause some problems by getting physical underneath him.

Brunson on Champagnie is something to file away because that’s where the Spurs will look to attack Brunson.

With Hart and Mikal, you could go with Hart on Vassell and Mikal on Fox. Mikal has typically guarded the speed guard for the other team. The one thing I would consider doing here, though, is putting Josh Hart on De’Aaron Fox so that you can switch the Wemby-Fox pick-and-roll.

If you put Hart on Vassell and Mikal on Fox, I think Mikal is going to be a little physically overwhelmed against Wemby in particular. I also think Castle is a little bit more capable of bullying a guy like Mikal than he is a guy like OG.

If Hart is capable of guarding Fox on an island one-on-one, then he could also switch those ball screens.

If OG, KAT and Hart are on Castle, Wemby and Fox, you just switch any ball screen involving those three guys. That gives you a better chance to shut down the roll-man attack that San Antonio uses so effectively.

The wrinkle there is: what if Fox gets KAT on him on a switch? Is he able to break him down off the bounce and create something?

Again, you’re in the Finals. These teams have really good offensive players. There’s no perfect defensive solution. But it’s something I would consider so that you have the ability to switch your big, physical wings onto Wemby regardless of where he’s at on the floor.

How San Antonio Can Attack Brunson

The most successful play type that the Spurs ran in this matchup was a cleared-side off-ball action where Wemby would start in the corner or on the wing, and Brunson’s man – usually Champagnie – would run over and set a screen for Wemby on the wing.

Yes, OG spent some time on Wemby in the regular season, but a lot of the reps were centers: Mitch or KAT. Those guys tend to struggle to navigate screens. And Brunson is not going to want to just switch onto Wemby.

The Spurs got a lot of good looks for Wemby just curling into 15-footers, curling into dunks down the lane, or taking a three when the defender went way under. Wemby got lots of good looks off this very simple action: starting on the left wing, having Brunson’s man set a pick, Brunson not wanting to help, and Wemby curling the action and looking to attack off the catch.

If Brunson does hang back in the lane and help or switch in any way, shape or form, that’s where Champagnie gets wide open slipping out of the screen.

That’s what I like when it comes to the other ways to attack Brunson: Champagnie slip screens, for example. Champagnie coming up to the ball handler – Fox, for example – setting a ghost screen and slipping out. If Brunson throws a hedge, you can hit Champagnie there and he can hit a three at the top of the key.

But one of the things I noticed in the film is that, in a lot of cases, Champagnie would struggle to actually set enough of a screen to get Brunson to help. He would either slip and Brunson wouldn’t hedge, or the defender would just fight through the Champagnie screen and they wouldn’t get any advantage there.

They tried a lot of those same double-drag pinch screens that we saw in the OKC series too, where Brunson would be involved, but the Knicks did a pretty good job of funneling it into a drop coverage look where they’re okay with a guy like Castle or Fox going into the lane and taking a contested 15-footer.

What I like about those wide screens – those off-ball screens for Wemby – is that it gets your best player the ball in a clear situation of advantage, in space, to catch and be aggressive. It is so much harder to protect Brunson in that specific situation.

Fox is one of the biggest keys of the series simply because the other guards struggle against the Knicks’ perimeter size. Dylan Harper and Castle both try to overpower players a lot, and that’s difficult to do against a Knicks team that is so big on the perimeter.

Fox is going to be one of the big keys of the series. A lot of the best stretches of offense for the Spurs in the regular season started with Fox getting good dribble penetration against that Knicks defense.

This series will put a much higher emphasis on Wemby’s scoring because the guards don’t have as much of an advantage like they did in the last round. Wemby is going to have to be the guy who provides more volume scoring in this matchup. I think in order for them to win the series, he’s going to have to be up around 27 or 28 points per game.

Wemby was turnover-prone in the regular season against this team, mainly because they stonewalled his drives. Whenever he would look to drive, they would get physical with him and flatten him out. They would sink in with OG or Mikal and start digging down at the basketball, and he had some big turnover issues.

Wemby’s offense is going to get a pretty tough evaluation in this series. He’s going to have to do some problem-solving against a team that’s more physically set up to handle him.

OG ranging off Castle in help is another big piece. Castle did not shoot well in the OKC series. OG is one of the best help defenders in the league. He functions as a secondary rim protector behind Karl-Anthony Towns. There’s a lot of emphasis on Castle making OG pay by knocking down the wide-open catch-and-shoot threes that result from OG helping at the rim.

Again, I think the Spurs offense is really going to come down to how well they attack Brunson and the different actions in which they do it. I think those wide screens for Wemby are the best way.

Then it comes down to Fox and Wembanyama, because I just don’t think this is going to be a Castle or Harper series necessarily. Dylan Harper more so than Steph – I think Dylan will have some moments – but I think Steph is going to have a rough series. It’s just a tough matchup for him.

That puts a heavier emphasis on Fox and Wemby to be able to score.

Jason Timpf’s NBA Finals Prediction

I thought I would come in this morning leaning slightly toward the Spurs. That was how I was feeling when I was talking with Colin yesterday. But after watching more film and really digging in, I actually lean slightly toward the Knicks.

It’s very close. I have it literally 55-45, so as close to a coin flip as it can be. But I just think the Knicks have a team that is specifically built to give the Spurs issues on both ends of the floor.

They move the ball extremely well with quality play finishing against the defensive looks where the Spurs either try to load up or they roam with a guy like Wemby. They have the physical size and high defensive IQ to keep San Antonio’s guards in front and turn them into a jump-shooting team. All of that cross matching really opens up their transition attack.

And I just think Brunson will be far and away the most reliable offensive player in the series.

Again, Shai is a better player than Brunson, but Brunson’s diverse attack and quickness is a better matchup for the way the Spurs like to guard.

I’m picking the Knicks to win this series in six games, but it’s very, very close to me. Again, 55-45. I would not be the slightest bit surprised if San Antonio ended up winning.

And if you’re looking for betting value, I think the Knicks at +170 makes the most sense because you’re getting nearly 2-1 odds for roughly a coin-flip series.