Welcome to the BettingPros PGA Podcast. I’m Pat Fitzmaurice, joined as always by Bo McBrayer. We’re going to give you a betting preview of the Valspar Championship, taking a closer look at the course and the field and giving you some of our favorite plays.
Valspar Championship Preview
After two signature events and THE PLAYERS Championship over the last three weeks, Valspar is a bit of a step down. Some of the big names are sitting this one out, but it’s still a pretty good field with some stars among the 133 entrants.
The Valspar Championship will be played at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida, which is on the Gulf Coast side of Florida, not too far from Tampa and St. Petersburg.
Copperhead Course Breakdown
The Copperhead Course is a par 71 that plays to 7,352 yards. Like the other courses on the Florida swing, Copperhead is a butt-kicker. The fairways are narrow, the greens are smaller than average, water comes into play on nine holes, and the rough can be penal. This is a unique PGA Tour course in that it has five par 3s, and with four par 5s, that means there are only nine par 4s.
Four of the par 3s are 200 yards or longer, and the shortest one is still 195 yards. Copperhead opens with a par 5, and it’s the shortest one on the course at 560 yards, so players really want to get that opening birdie to kick-start their rounds.
The three-hole finishing stretch at Copperhead is known as the Snake Pit, and it is a tough test. The 16th hole is a 475-yard par 4 with a narrow fairway and water running all the way down the right side of the hole. The 17th is a 215-yard par 3 with a green completely surrounded by bunkers. The 18th is a 445-yard par 4 with fairway bunkers left and right of the target landing area. And Copperhead has some very difficult Poa trivialis greens.
Weather should be gorgeous this week, though. No rain in the forecast for Palm Harbor. Just a lot of sun, temperatures in the 70s all week. The winds are expected to blow 10 to 15 miles an hour the first two days, 5 to 10 miles an hour on the weekend. No rain. These greens could get pretty fast. We’ve seen fast greens throughout the Florida swing.
Looking at Previous Winners
Viktor Hovland is the defending champion. He was 11 under par last year, beating Justin Thomas by a stroke. Peter Malnati was a surprise Valspar winner in 2024 with a score of minus 12. He beat Cameron Young by two shots that year. Taylor Moore won here in 2023 with a score of 10 under par, and Sam Burns won back-to-back Valspars in 2021 and 2022.
It’s a lot more of an approach-game course. Obviously, good drives gained is huge here because the fairways are narrow, and if you’re out of position here, it’s really hard to avoid the bogeys. You’re not looking to avoid double bogeys like last week because it’s not overly difficult in that way. It’s just that the birdie chances are few and far between here, especially in the Snake Pit. Finishing that round, there’s going to be a lot of stuff that can go down on the back nine on Sunday at this championship, just the same as THE PLAYERS, because that Snake Pit is extremely difficult. All three of those holes will be playing over par. Even with really good scoring conditions, those three holes are absolutely brutal, and to come down the stretch and try to win a tournament with those three holes staring you in the face is never easy.
I’m big on approach. I’m big on good drives gained, and then scrambling, bogey avoidance, a little bit of proximity on approach from 175 and above. A lot of long approaches here. Not really as many forced layups off the tee as last week, but you’re still going to get a lot of importance on finding the fairway here. So accurate players again, who may be on a hot streak.
And I am considering these greens to be a true Bermuda. Even though they’re Poa trivialis, it’s close enough to what you would get as pure a Bermuda as you’re going to see for putting greens now. Everybody’s pretty much gone to overseeded rye with the other Florida courses, so I’m filtering for Bermuda putting over the last 24 rounds and recent success. I want to see guys coming in hot because this course is going to be challenging enough.
Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week
Now it’s time for our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week for the Valspar Championship:
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week
My Hard Rock Bet of the Week this week was Akshay Bhatia. Hard Rock Bet Illinois had him at 25-1 on Monday afternoon, and I couldn’t resist a hot golfer at that price. Unfortunately for me, he officially withdrew from the Valspar on Wednesday morning.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Valspar Championship Picks:
- Jacob Bridgeman (+2250)
- Ryo Hisatsune (+4200)
- Stephan Jaeger (+10500)
- Blades Brown (+11000)
- Blades Brown Top 10 (+760)
Bo McBrayer’s Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week
It’s got to be Jacob Bridgeman at +2250 because I’m going to take him every which way possible. He’s doesn’t have the lowest odds on this board, and I think he’s far and away the favorite for me. So, 22.5-1 for my outright favorite golf bet this week.
Bo McBrayer’s Valspar Championship Picks:
- Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week: Jacob Bridgeman (+2250)
- Ricky Castillo (+6000)
- Bud Cauley (+8200)
- William Mouw (+10000)
- David Ford (+12000)
- Dan Brown (+17000)
That is all for this week’s BettingPros PGA Podcast. We hope you’ll be back with us next week when Bo and I preview the Houston Open. Until then, so long, everyone.
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