The road to the 2026 World Baseball Classic championship reaches its final hurdle Monday night in Miami, Florida.
Undefeated Italy (5-0) will host Venezuela (4-1) in the tournament’s second semifinal, with the winner advancing to face Team USA in Tuesday night’s championship game at loanDepot park.
Italy has been one of the most surprising stories of the tournament, rolling through Pool B without a loss and continuing its momentum with an 8-6 quarterfinal victory over Puerto Rico. Venezuela, meanwhile, delivered one of the biggest moments of the WBC so far by rallying past defending champion Japan for an 8-5 comeback win in the quarterfinals.
Monday night’s matchup brings together two confident teams that have taken very different paths to this stage, but both now sit just one win away from playing for a world title.
From a financial standpoint, Venezuela also enters the semifinal with one of the most star-studded rosters in the tournament, ranking third among all 20 World Baseball Classic teams in total team payroll, while Italy’s roster checks in eighth overall.
Venezuela vs. Italy Game Info
- 📍 Where: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
- 📅 Date: Monday, March 16
- ⏰ First Pitch: 8:00 PM ET
- 📺 Broadcast: FS1
Venezuela vs. Italy Current Odds
Italy enters Monday night’s semifinal riding the momentum of an undefeated tournament run, but Venezuela’s explosive offense and comeback victory over defending champion Japan makes them a dangerous favorite heading into the matchup.
Here’s a snapshot of the latest moneyline, run line, and total for tonight’s game at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook:
Odds subject to change.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Venezuela -190, Italy +145 |
| Run Line | Venezuela -1.5 (-120), Italy +1.5 (+100) |
| Total (Runs) | Over 10.5 (-105), Under 10.5 (-125) |
Venezuela vs. Italy Pitching Matchup
Detroit Tigers right-hander Keider Montero is expected to start for Venezuela. The young pitcher has only thrown three innings in this year’s WBC so far, recording two strikeouts, but Venezuela will be hoping he can keep Italy’s offense in check early and hand the game off to its bullpen.
Italy will counter with veteran Aaron Nola, who steps in for the previously scheduled starter Michael Lorenzen. The Philadelphia Phillies right-hander delivered one of Italy’s most important performances of pool play, throwing five scoreless innings with five strikeouts against Mexico in the Pool B finale — a result that ultimately helped shape the quarterfinal bracket and inadvertently sent Team USA into the knockout round.
With Nola bringing postseason-level experience and Montero representing Venezuela’s next wave of pitching talent, the early innings could set the tone for the rest of the game.
Venezuela vs. Italy Player Props
With a trip to the championship game on the line, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook is offering plenty of player props for this semifinal clash under the Game Exclusives tab:
Strikeout Props
- Keider Montero 3+ Strikeouts -275
- Keider Montero 4+ Strikeouts -125
- Keider Montero 5+ Strikeouts +175
- Keider Montero 6+ Strikeouts +400
- Keider Montero 7+ Strikeouts +800
Home Run Props
- Ronald Acuña Jr. to Record 1+ Home Run +350
- Vinnie Pasquantino to Record 1+ Home Run +350
- Wilyer Abreu to Record 1+ Home Run +400
- Salvador Perez to Record 1+ Home Run +425
- Jackson Chourio to Record 1+ Home Run +450
- Dominic Canzone to Record 1+ Home Run +500
- William Contreras to Record 1+ Home Run +500
- Jac Caglianone to Record 1+ Home Run +550
- Ezequiel Tovar to Record 1+ Home Run +600
- Gleyber Torres to Record 1+ Home Run +700
- Jakob Marsee to Record 1+ Home Run +750
- Maikel Garcia to Record 1+ Home Run +750
- Thomas Saggese to Record 1+ Home Run +900
- Andrew Fischer to Record 1+ Home Run +1000
- Dante Nori to Record 1+ Home Run +1200
- Luis Arraez to Record 1+ Home Run +1200
- Sam Antonacci to Record 1+ Home Run +1200
- J.J. D’Orazio to Record 1+ Home Run +1400
Stolen Base Props
- Maikel Garcia to Record 1+ Stolen Base +225
- Ronald Acuña Jr. to Record 1+ Stolen Base +250
- Jackson Chourio to Record 1+ Stolen Base +350
- Jakob Marsee to Record 1+ Stolen Base +500
- Luis Arraez to Record 1+ Stolen Base +1000
Combo Props
- Ronald Acuña Jr. to Hit 1+ Home Run AND Venezuela to Win +450
- Jac Caglianone to Hit 1+ Home Run AND Italy to Win +1000
Venezuela & Italy WBC Championship Odds
With Team USA already waiting in the championship game, the winner of Monday’s semifinal will see its title odds immediately shift.
Here’s where both teams currently stand on the futures board:
Venezuela: +375 (2nd-best odds remaining)
Italy: +1400 (longest odds among remaining 3 teams)
A victory for Italy would continue one of the most unexpected runs in the tournament, while a Venezuelan win would set up a championship clash featuring two of the most talent-heavy rosters in the event.
WBC Championship Game Implications
Monday night’s semifinal will determine who faces Team USA in the 2026 World Baseball Classic championship game Tuesday night at 8:00 PM ET in Miami.
- For Italy, a win would extend a stunning undefeated tournament run and send the Pool B champions to their first WBC final.
- For Venezuela, the opportunity would be a chance to build on its dramatic comeback win over Japan and take one more step toward its first WBC title.
Either way, the stakes couldn’t be higher — one game away from the championship stage.
Check Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook for the latest odds, player props, and live betting options before and during Monday night’s semifinal.
Referenced odds are subject to change.
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about your gambling? In FL, call or text 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. In AZ and OH, call 1-800-MY-RESET.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (CO, IL, MI, NJ, TN, VA)
