After sorting through the stay-aways, injury reports, and the weird psychology that comes with late-season NFL football, I’ve landed on five plays I feel strongly about this week. Some of these will make you uncomfortable. A couple of them might feel like I’m stepping directly into traffic.
That’s usually when I’m most confident.
Let’s dive in.
1. Titans +3.5 vs. Chiefs
I think Tennessee is going to win this game outright.
This pick is about layers. Start with the obvious: the drop-off from Patrick Mahomes to Gardner Minshew is massive. Mahomes has been papering over issues for years – offensive line injuries, inconsistency, and roster flaws – and now all of that is being exposed at once.
Add in the emotional whiplash. This is a team that has lived in nothing but high-leverage situations for half a decade, now grinding through meaningless regular-season games. That matters. Motivation matters.
Then there’s the uncertainty. Chris Jones’ status. Travis Kelce openly sounding like someone nearing the end. Arrowhead looming next week for what might be a final home game. This doesn’t feel like a locked-in Chiefs team.
Meanwhile, Tennessee is at home, getting points, and playing with house money. Sometimes the number just tells you to stop overthinking it.
I’ll gladly take the Titans and the hook.
2. Buccaneers -3 at Panthers
This is a line-in-the-sand game for Tampa Bay.
Win, and the NFC South is essentially theirs. Lose, and they’re fighting for their lives the rest of the season. I know the Bucs have been playing their worst football of the year over the last month, but I also believe they’re better than what we’ve seen.
Carolina has been a nice story, but Tampa still has the higher ceiling, and they get a quiet advantage here with extra rest after playing on Thursday night.
Would I love this at -2.5? Absolutely. Am I still comfortable at -3? Yes. Would I touch -3.5? Probably not.
This is the spot where Tampa reminds everyone who they are.
3. Cowboys -2 vs. Chargers
The Chargers have been winning games recently – but they’ve been doing it almost entirely with defense.
Justin Herbert has struggled for a month now, and while L.A. pulled off emotional wins against the Eagles and Chiefs, those were playoff-level efforts that don’t always carry over week to week. Especially when the math says they don’t need this game. Even if they lose out, their playoff odds remain strong.
Dallas, on the other hand, is staring elimination in the face.
Yes, they’re inconsistent. Yes, last week was ugly. But this is an elimination-type spot at home, with matchup advantages along the defensive line and a quarterback who historically responds after bad losses.
I don’t love that Philly plays the night before – Dallas could be eliminated before kickoff – but I still think this is the Cowboys’ best punch.
Laying less than a field goal at home? I’ll take it.
4. Jaguars +3 at Broncos
Denver has been incredible – and that’s exactly why I’m taking the points.
The Broncos have played nothing but close games for weeks. Three point games. Overtime games. Late-swing games. Getting the full field goal here matters.
There’s also a historical angle I can’t ignore: teams riding 11-plus game winning streaks are 14-36 against the spread since 1990. Sustained dominance is great. Sustained covering is rare.
Jacksonville is forcing turnovers, playing loose, and doesn’t need to win this game – just keep it close. And Denver, suddenly realizing how soft their remaining path might be, doesn’t have to empty the tank here.
Give me the underdog and the three.
5. Patriots +3 at Ravens
I don’t believe in Baltimore.
Lamar Jackson is banged up, missing practice, and while the narrative says he’s invincible late in the season, this Patriots team is simply playing better football right now.
New England is coming off an awful loss in a game they had to have – the exact kind of spot where well-coached teams respond. I think they have the better coach, the quarterback playing better football at the moment, and I’m getting a full three points on the road.
That’s enough for me.
Nick Wright’s Final Card for NFL Week 16
- Titans +3.5 vs. Chiefs
- Buccaneers -3 at Panthers
- Cowboys -2 vs. Chargers
- Jaguars +3 at Broncos
- Patriots +3 at Ravens
It’s a card built on uncomfortable numbers, emotional spots, and teams most people don’t want to back this time of year – which is exactly why I love it.
Late-season football isn’t about who’s “good.”
It’s about who needs it, who’s tired, and who’s being priced like last month still matters.
Let’s have a week.
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