Sharp or Square: Week 12 Recap, Early Week 13 Leans

Another Sunday, another sweat. Simon and I went live as the final seconds of Eagles-Cowboys ticked away, both of us riding Dallas +3.5. Down 21-0, it looked hopeless… until it wasn’t. Brandon Aubrey’s kick sealed a comeback for the ages and a winning week for us: 3-2 in the contest, but it felt like we’d climbed Everest.

Lions Lose Their Bite

Let’s open with the game that aged us all: Detroit -10.5. This wasn’t football – it was therapy without progress. The Lions sleepwalked through three quarters, giving up two touchdowns on trick plays and letting Wandale Robinson morph into Jerry Rice.

Jared Goff looked uncomfortable from the first snap. The offensive line leaked like a screen door in a hurricane, and without Sam LaPorta, the entire scheme felt brittle. Jahmyr Gibbs ran like his paycheck depended on it (219 yards, two scores), but Detroit’s vaunted offense? Lifeless.

Simon summed it up best: “You can’t give up two touchdowns on gadgets and still expect to cover.” We got closing-line value. We didn’t get the win.

Flacco’s Redemption Tour

Joe Flacco giveth, and Joe Flacco taketh away. We held Cincinnati +8.5, praying for competency. He threw a soul-crushing pick-six, flat-footed and blind to the world – and then somehow delivered a backdoor miracle.

The Bengals’ defense finally looked like it had a pulse, stopping New England twice on the goal line, once after a penalty that gifted the Pats four extra downs. It was ugly, nervy, and entirely on-brand for Flacco’s twilight years.

He got the cover, he banged up a finger, and he reminded us that bad teams can be profitable. A win’s a win, but we all lost a few years off our lives.

Colts Hold Their Ground

Indianapolis +3.5 was less a bet and more an act of faith. Daniel Jones (yes, him) started red-hot, completing 16 of 20 before unraveling. The Colts defense – led by former Bengals DC Lou Anarumo – did exactly what he used to do to Mahomes in Cincinnati: make him uncomfortable.

Still, head coach Shane Steichen nearly cost us everything. Fourth-and-four near midfield, two minutes left, and he punted. Analytics screamed to go for it. He didn’t. That’s a crime against data.

The Colts hung on for the cover, but Steichen earns the Shame on You crown of the week. Sometimes bad coaching gets saved by worse decision-making on the other sideline.

Cardinals Crash the Party

We said it Tuesday: “Wait for the +3.” In the contest, it was 2.5 – and that half-point became a knife twist.

Arizona played Jacksonville even all day. Four Trevor Lawrence turnovers should’ve resulted in a cover, but the Cards’ defense is allergic to prosperity. They forced mistakes all afternoon and still surrendered 27 points.

If you waited and grabbed +3, you pushed. If you rode with us at 2.5, you lost. Right side, wrong result.

Cowboys Resurrect Themselves

Dallas +3.5 versus Philadelphia was a full-blown emotional hostage situation.

The Eagles went into halftime up 21-0 smug and came out asleep. No adjustments, no rhythm. Dallas rattled off 24 unanswered points while Dak turned into a surgeon.

Meanwhile, CeeDee Lamb decided catching the football was optional – four receptions on 11 targets and a drop that nearly cost us everything. Still, the Cowboys pulled it off. The cover and the comeback of the week.

Titans and the Art of the Backdoor

Every bettor has a boogeyman. Ours wears navy blue and ruins parlays. Seattle -12.5 was cruising, up 30-10, when Tennessee did what Tennessee does: crawl through the backdoor like a raccoon at midnight.

Cam Ward converted three fourth downs on a 15-play garbage-time drive that flipped an easy win into agony. Simon called it “the curse of the Titans,” and he’s not wrong. Whether we bet on them or fade them, the result is the same: pain.

We’re done trying to decode this team. The Titans don’t play football; they perform psychological experiments on gamblers.

Bears Find a Pulse

Sometimes discipline is the best bet. We passed on Pittsburgh +2.5, and thank the gambling gods we did. Mason Rudolph was who we thought he was, and Caleb Williams delivered just enough to keep it entertaining.

Caleb’s turnover in the end zone was pure rookie panic, but he rebounded with some of his sharpest throws of the season, especially over the middle. Chicago’s coaching staff deserves credit – they’re molding a quarterback who doesn’t flinch.

The Bears remain the NFL’s wildest ride: part circus, part revelation, all heartburn.

Sharp or Square Picks: Early Week 13 Leans

Heading into Week 13, Thanksgiving lines are already tempting us:

• Lions -3 vs Packers: Buy low after that effort.
• Cowboys +3.5 vs Chiefs: Dak’s revenge tour continues.
• Bengals +8.5 at Ravens: Painfully live dog.
• Browns +6 vs 49ers: Ugly, but profitable ugly.
• Colts -3.5 vs Texans: Colts bounce back.

Remember: don’t chase. Momentum in the NFL lasts about as long as a halftime show.