If you’ve been following along, you know my travel schedule isn’t glamorous. On Tuesday, I was in a Philadelphia hotel with a view of City Hall. Today? A Waffle House and a five-lane highway outside my window in western Pennsylvania. It’s not exactly a sportsbook penthouse, but it fits the vibe of this show: we grind wherever we are.
Simon’s back home dealing with an army of leaf blowers, Matt Mitchell’s trying to clean up the audio, and we’re locking in for another week of games. The road trip, the noise, the bad coffee – it’s all part of the deal. Because by Week 12, every game matters, every line moves, and every pick has to earn its way onto the card.
Sharp Calls
Houston vs. Buffalo led off the chatter. Personally, I love Houston’s defense and grabbed them at +6, even if it means trusting Davis Mills again. The pros are in agreement, as they see a Bills team coming off a big performance against the Bucs, and they want to fade that emotion.
Then came the surprise: heavy love for the Giants. Simon doesn’t get it. Betting on Jameis Winston two straight weeks is a form of gambling theater he’s not attending.
The rest of the calls showed how fractured the board is – pros lining up on opposite sides of Chiefs/Colts, Vikings/Packers, and even Saints/Falcons. There’s no consensus this week, just conviction on both sides.
Seahawks (-13.5) at Titans
The public’s all over Seattle, and the pros aren’t fighting it. We grabbed -12 earlier in the week and haven’t looked back. Tennessee’s new coaching bump has run its course, and their offense looks exhausted.
Seattle’s well-coached, balanced, and comfortable covering big spreads. Simon says it’s not the kind of number he loves to bet – but it’s one he respects.
Lions (-10) vs Giants
On Tuesday, Detroit was Simon Says. Now, with the line ticking down to 10, some sharps have switched sides. Not us.
Goff and Campbell off a loss at home are an automatic play. The Lions destroy bad teams, especially when they’re healthier and angrier. Jameis is fun to watch, but fun doesn’t cash.
Steelers (+2.5) at Bears
Aaron Rodgers’ status has this line twisting like a doorknob. It opened at 3, slid to 2.5, and could bounce again depending on Friday’s injury reports.
Simon’s advice: don’t chase. If Rodgers plays, you’re getting Pittsburgh at value. If he doesn’t, you’re already sitting on the right number.
Bengals (+6.5) vs Patriots
Joe Burrow practicing full sent this market into overdrive. The line has since dropped from 8.5 to 6.5, but even that might not be enough. Simon was shocked it didn’t move further – Burrow’s worth more than two points.
Bottom line, the Patriots’ winning streak as road favorites has been unsustainable – we like Cincinnati at +6.5.
Colts (+3.5) at Chiefs
Kansas City’s numbers say they’re elite; their record says otherwise. The Colts, meanwhile, just keep doing the little things right. Mahomes is 0-5 in one-score games this year – a stat no one saw coming.
Although it won’t be this week’s Simon Says, Simon’s still on the Colts with confidence.
Raiders (-3.5) vs Browns
Cleveland’s heading west with Shedeur Sanders behind a makeshift line, and Maxx Crosby’s licking his chops. And as we all know, the Browns have been dreadful away from home.
Simon’s cautious – the number feels too easy – but I’m all in. Vegas at home with a pass rush advantage? We’ll take it.
Cardinals (+3) vs Jaguars
This was Chad’s Choice earlier in the week, and it’s aged beautifully. The number hit +3 midweek, and that’s the buy signal.
No Marvin Harrison Jr.? Fine. Brissett doesn’t rely on a single target. Arizona’s been undervalued all season, and Jacksonville’s been skating by. The analytics say these teams aren’t far apart – and that’s enough.
Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Saints (-1.5) vs Falcons
This is our official Brass Balls Bet of the Week. Atlanta’s offense is decimated: no Drake London, no Michael Penix. New Orleans isn’t explosive, but they’re stable, and in Week 12, stability wins.
Simon grabbed -1.5 before it moved to 2. The pros he respects are doing the same.
Cowboys (+3.5) vs Eagles
The line’s been a yo-yo all week – 4.5 to 3 to 3.5 – but the money’s clear. The biggest syndicate action of the week is on Dallas.
Simon hates saying it as an Eagles fan, but he knows when to listen. Philly’s offense looks disjointed, and they may need a loss to fix themselves. Dallas might be the team to hand it to them.
Panthers (+7) at 49ers
Nobody understands this number. The Niners are 1-14 ATS after wins, and the market’s still pushing them higher. Bryce Young’s team might be ugly, but they play hard and always compete.
Simon’s on alert for an overcorrection, but he loves the value here. Sometimes the worst-looking bet is the best one.
Sharp or Square Picks: Week 12
Here’s what our options are looking like heading into Sunday:
- Saints -1.5 vs Falcons (Brass Balls Bet)
- Lions -10 vs Giants
- Bengals +6.5 vs Patriots
- Colts +3.5 at Chiefs
- Cowboys +3.5 vs Eagles
- Cardinals +3 vs Jaguars
- Raiders -3.5 vs Browns
- Panthers +7 at 49ers
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