No. 18 USC vs. No. 9 Indiana Picks, Predictions & Preview

Indiana has gone from being a basketball school to one of the best football programs in the country under Curt Cignetti.

The Hoosiers are the defending national champions, and they’ve got another terrific football team this year. Particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

Now Bloomington is getting another top-20 showdown as USC comes to town on Saturday.

I still don’t trust this USC team to travel. Nobody does. That’s not going to be unique analysis, but I especially don’t trust the Trojans in a game where I expect physicality and the line of scrimmage to determine the outcome.

Indiana is going to make USC earn everything offensively. I don’t think the Trojans are equipped to do that against this defense.

USC’s Offense Faces a Difficult Matchup

I really like USC quarterback Jayden Maiava. I think the Trojans have a significant advantage at that position regardless of who starts for Indiana.

But I don’t love this matchup for any quarterback going up against the Hoosiers’ defense.

USC has had trouble protecting its quarterback this season, allowing around 2.5 sacks per game. I expect Indiana’s defensive line to apply plenty of pressure.

The Trojans also rank 108th nationally in rushing yards per game. That’s a major concern against a defense that makes it extremely difficult to run the football.

If USC can’t establish a running game, Indiana can keep two safeties deep without having to bring another defender into the box.

That’s going to put an awful lot on Maiava’s shoulders.

USC found success against Ohio State by checking the ball down and making the Buckeyes tackle. They couldn’t tackle Trent Mosley, Mark Bowman or the running backs in space.

That recipe isn’t going to work against Indiana.

You’re actually going to have to drive the ball down the field. You’re going to have to win at the line of scrimmage. I don’t think USC can consistently do either against this defense.

Indiana’s Quarterback Situation

The biggest question for Indiana is who’s going to start at quarterback.

Will it be Josh Hoover or Grant Wilson?

Personally, I think they should roll with Wilson.

He’s 6-5 and 225 pounds. He can run north to south and brings a much bigger rushing presence to this offense than Hoover.

Regardless of who’s under center, I expect Indiana to run the football and challenge USC to stop it.

But the Hoosiers need to find some offensive rhythm early. Get one of these quarterbacks comfortable and build a lead.

We already know what Indiana’s defense is going to do. They’re going to squeeze their opponents and hold them to a minimal number of points.

Neither quarterback needs to be an All-American. But if Indiana wants to compete for another national championship, somebody at that position has to become a difference-maker.

USC vs. Indiana Prediction

USC has become a bit of a wild card. The Trojans got handled by Wisconsin and then turned around and played a much more physical game against Ohio State.

But I don’t think Indiana is going to have the same problems Ohio State did.

The Buckeyes couldn’t tackle USC’s playmakers. That was the biggest reason the Trojans had success, not because they were dominating the line of scrimmage.

Indiana isn’t going to let that happen.

I’m also interested to see whether USC hurts itself with penalties. The Trojans rank 60th nationally in penalty yardage, while Indiana ranks seventh.

And the way this game starts is going to be important.

If USC is going to pull off the upset, it probably needs to build a comfortable lead. If it’s a three-point game in the fourth quarter, I trust Indiana to make the plays necessary to win.

That’s what the Hoosiers have consistently done. They win those crucial moments.

I expect Indiana’s defense to control this football game and make life miserable for Maiava.

We’re going to be asking the same questions about Lincoln Riley that we were asking just a few weeks ago.

I’ve got Indiana beating USC 27-9.