NFL Week 3 is here, and I’ve got five of my favorite props going into the weekend, focusing only on the 1:00 and 4:00 p.m. ET slates.
If you don’t know who I am, I’m the Prop Queen, Ariel Epstein. I do the research so you don’t have to.
Let’s dive right into the five plays.
Quinshon Judkins Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
Let’s start with an ugly, ugly game that only football could make you want to watch: Carolina at Cleveland.
I’m taking Browns running back Quinshon Judkins Over 59.5 Rushing Yards at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook around -115.
I saw this at 55.5 a couple of days ago, so the market agrees with me. It’s a great buy-low spot for Judkins after rushing for just 33 and 21 yards against two really tough opponents to start the season.
Last year, in games without Shedeur Sanders and with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, Judkins had 110, 84 and 75 rushing yards against bad run defenses in Minnesota, Miami and the New York Jets.
Now he’s getting Carolina, which was a bottom-10 run defense last year and has started this season the same way. The Panthers allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs last season and have allowed the most in the NFL through the first two weeks this year at 173.5 yards per game.
Dating back to last season, six of the last eight running backs to face Carolina have gone over their rushing-yard prop.
Welcome to the breakout week for Quinshon Judkins, who I’ll also be playing in fantasy and daily fantasy.
Garrett Wilson Over 61.5 Receiving Yards
There is one thing that stays true about the Lions, aside from the fact that they choke in the playoffs: their secondary sucks.
That’s why I’m taking Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson Over 61.5 Receiving Yards. I also like Wilson Over 21.5 yards for his longest reception.
Last year against defenses that ranked bottom 10 against wide receivers, Wilson had 95 and 71 receiving yards. On the road, he’s also been productive, and through his last 10 road games he’s averaging just under 80 receiving yards.
As for his longest reception, Wilson is averaging about 32 yards on his longest catch over his last 10 games against defenses that rank bottom 10 against wide receivers. He’s gone over 21.5 yards for his longest catch in eight of those 10 matchups.
Detroit allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers last year. The Lions have been even worse to start this season, allowing 218.5 receiving yards per game to the position through two weeks.
Five of the seven wide receivers to face Detroit this season have gone over both their receiving-yard and longest-reception props. We’re not just talking about No. 1 receivers, either. We’re talking third-stringers going over these numbers against the Lions’ secondary.
Inside the dome in Detroit, give me Garrett Wilson to have a big game.
Tony Pollard Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
This next one’s going to be ugly.
It’s supposed to be rainy and gross in New York. The Giants are also without Jaxson Dart after he was placed on IR. Dart is worth about four points according to Hard Rock Bet, with the Giants moving from around -6.5 with him to roughly -2.5 or -3 with Jameis Winston.
I’m looking at the Tennessee side because we already know how that quarterback situation looks with Cam Ward, and now we’re adding terrible rain and conditions into the mix.
I’m taking Titans running back Tony Pollard Over 48.5 Rushing Yards.
Pollard has great history against the Giants, going over this number in all six games while averaging 73 rushing yards per game against Big Blue. On the road against teams that rank bottom 10 against the run, especially against running backs, he’s averaging 68 rushing yards per game and has gone over in eight of 10.
The Giants are bottom 10 against running backs in rushing yards allowed. They allowed the second-most last year and the eighth-most to start this season at 109.5 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks.
The Giants looked good against the Cowboys, then looked terrible last week after Dart went down against the Rams. They couldn’t hold onto the football, Winston was throwing the ball away and the offense couldn’t convert.
If you’re going to tire out your defense, eventually an offense is going to run all over you.
That’s what Tony Pollard is going to do. Give me Over 48.5 rushing yards.
Trevor Lawrence Under 224.5 Passing Yards
If you’ve been watching my stuff, you know I hate the Jacksonville Jaguars. They are frauds.
Last year was a great overachieving year for Trevor Lawrence and crew. However, Lawrence faced some of the worst secondaries in football. The biggest drop-off this year is that he has to face a lot tougher pass defenses.
That’s what he’s getting against New England.
This stat is crazy: only one quarterback since December 14 has gone over his passing-yard prop against the Patriots.
That’s why New England is top 10 against the pass. Last year at home against defenses that ranked top 10 against the pass, Lawrence went under in all four games while averaging just under 201 passing yards per game.
The number is low for a reason, and we’re taking Trevor Lawrence Under 224.5 Passing Yards.
Aaron Jones Under 69.5 Rushing Yards
Prop number five takes us to Minnesota against Tampa Bay.
The line has moved a point against the Vikings from -2.5 to -1.5, while the total has also dropped from 43.5 to 42.5.
Minnesota is 2-0 to start the year, but statistically, the defense has overachieved. Based on last year’s numbers, they’ll probably regress to the mean again this season.
For this prop, though, we’re going with Vikings running back Aaron Jones.
Jones had 105 rushing yards last week against Chicago, and we are in a great sell-high spot. I’m taking Aaron Jones Under 69.5 Rushing Yards.
Chicago has been a terrible run defense for what feels like forever. Tampa Bay’s Achilles’ heel is its secondary, not its run defense.
The Buccaneers are top 10 in rushing yards allowed to running backs. They allowed the sixth-fewest last season and the second-fewest to opposing running backs through the first two weeks this year.
On the road, Jones is averaging 47 rushing yards per game. Against top-10 run defenses, he’s averaging 49 rushing yards per game and has gone under this number in eight of 10.
This number is just too high.
It is a small sample size with Kyler Murray under center in Minnesota, but Murray can run, too. I could see him taking it himself, and Tampa Bay is going to force Murray to throw the football.
I don’t trust Aaron Jones in back-to-back weeks at this number. I know some of those stats could be skewed by a dual-threat backfield – I don’t care.
Aaron Jones is old. He’s not as fast as he used to be.
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