Alright, it’s Week 3 of the NFL season, and I’ve got my top five plays of the weekend.
Let’s dive into these games.
Panthers at Browns: Browns +2.5
Who did Carolina actually beat 34-3 last week? Let’s review.
Oh, that’s right. Cooper Rush, a third-string quarterback. And then when Cooper Rush got pulled, an undrafted rookie named Jack Strand went under center.
Yeah, that’s not really a statement win. That is a scrimmage with a large crowd.
It’s also the first time that Carolina has actually covered a game as a favorite on the road in years. Currently, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook has the Panthers back on the road as a favorite, laying 2.5 points.
The problem I have with these numbers is that they’re built on two things that likely won’t last.
First, Bryce Young is averaging over 14 yards per completion. For his career, it’s 9.9. Bryce Young did not turn into some sort of deep ball artist over the summer. I think regression is coming for him, and when it does, this offense will look a lot like it did last year.
Not to mention, they’re very thin in the running back room, as Brooks was just placed on injured reserve. They’re having a tryout this week with Austin Ekeler. The injuries are starting to pile up.
The other issue is with the Carolina defense. It’s giving up 6.1 yards per play, and its best player, Devin Lloyd, likely isn’t playing. He had an elite year for Jacksonville last season and was the NFC Defensive Player of the Week last week, but he hasn’t practiced since that game because of a calf strain.
Cleveland has Deshaun Watson completing 77% of his passes with only one interception. Not going to lie, I did not see that coming.
But the running game is a mess at 2.2 yards per carry, and the defense is still trying to adjust to life without Myles Garrett. This is not a great team.
Still, my numbers have Carolina by barely a point, and every injury this week makes Carolina worse to me.
The number is +2.5 at Hard Rock Bet, and that’s what I’m going to take here. I’m also going to use the Browns in six-point teasers this week and get them to +8.5 as a home underdog.
Pick: Browns +2.5
Vikings at Buccaneers: Buccaneers +1.5
I know everyone sees a 2-0 team versus an 0-2 team and figures this one is probably easy.
Well, it’s not, because those two records are lying to you.
Minnesota has been outgained by 231 yards, and yet they’ve won both games anyway. This is a team that keeps somehow finding money in its couch cushions. The problem is eventually they’re going to run out of couch.
Tampa Bay has had its own issues, including fumbling it four times in Cincinnati and basically handing the Bengals the ball with a pen to sign for it. But they only lost by six.
If you look at both games, including the Browns one last week, the Bucs have only been outgained by 23 yards in those two losses.
Turnovers do not follow a team around. Yards do.
Now for the quarterback situation. Kyler Murray has played less than one quarter of real football for the Vikings. Sunday is supposed to be his first full game in purple, on the road, coming off a concussion. Quarterbacks in that first game back tend to be a little bit worse, not better.
The Minnesota defense is good. I’ll give them that. Brian Flores has them playing, and it’s the only reason they’re 2-0 right now.
But this is an average team laying points to a very desperate team on the road.
My number says pick’em, but I like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting 1.5 points. Again, Tampa is another team I’ll be using in six-point teasers.
Pick: Buccaneers +1.5
Patriots at Jaguars: Patriots +3
New England has allowed 16 points this season. Not per game. A total of 16 points in two games, and 13 of those came in Seattle against the team that beat them in the Super Bowl.
The Patriots defense is real.
The knock on New England has been the offense, and it’s a fair knock because the last three times the Patriots have seen a great defense – Denver in the AFC title game and Seattle twice – they’ve scored 10, 13 and 10 points.
But here’s the thing: Jacksonville is not in the same breath defensively as those two teams.
Last year, the Jaguars were great on third down, but they were ordinary on every other down. This is not a great defense. This is a team that had a hot streak defensively, and that hot streak came to an end when Denver moved the ball on them all last week.
Denver ended Jacksonville’s nine-game regular-season winning streak in the process, and that streak is the reason you’re getting three here with the Patriots.
I went against Jacksonville last week. I liked Denver. You know that if you watched the video.
Well, I’m going right back to the well here.
Can Jacksonville move the ball? Sure. They did it to Cleveland. They got 284 yards in Denver.
But this Patriots defense is every bit as good as the one in Denver, and I will take that defense over what I think is going to be a very overrated Jaguars offense every time.
Give me the three points and the New England Patriots. Sprinkle a little something on that moneyline, too.
Pick: Patriots +3
Bengals at Steelers: Steelers +3.5
I know what you’re going to say.
Pittsburgh has scored one touchdown in 25 possessions this season. One.
Aaron Rodgers has spent more time on his back than he’s actually spent in the end zone.
But I’m still taking the Steelers because the team laying the points hasn’t been good either.
Cincinnati is 2-0, yes, but they needed those four Tampa Bay fumbles just to win by six in Week 1. Last week, they won 20-6 in Houston, but Houston moved the ball better play for play across the board. A few big moments went Cincinnati’s way.
The Bengals offense is sitting at 5.1 yards per play. Nothing special about that. That’s about as ordinary an average as you get in the NFL.
The Pittsburgh defense has been anything but ordinary, allowing 33 points in two games.
Yes, one of those games was against Cooper Rush. We have met Cooper Rush. We understand.
Look at the matchups: a good defense against a bad offense on one side and a good defense against an ordinary offense on the other.
This is a game that stays lower scoring. And when a game stays low, I want the 3.5 points.
That’s a lot of points, especially with the hook available and three being such a key number. Not to mention, we have another home underdog here with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I’ll take those 3.5 points.
Pick: Steelers +3.5
Eagles at Bears: Bears Team Total Under 17.5
Finally, let’s look at Monday Night Football with the Philadelphia Eagles at the Chicago Bears.
Chicago scored 59 points in Week 1.
Great.
I want the Under on 17.5 team total points here for the Bears.
That’s not a typo.
The Bears went from 59 points to three in one week, and Caleb Williams played most of the game. Now he’s out.
So Monday night, it’s either going to be a Tyson Bagent reunion if he can clear the concussion protocol, or it’s going to be Case Keenum, who we haven’t really seen throw a football in the NFL in well over a year.
Bagent is accurate, and Ben Johnson will have a real plan for him if he clears the concussion protocol.
Keenum? Well, he had one good season in Minnesota back in 2017. Not exactly a track record. It’s more like a yearbook photo.
Either way, I have this offense five or six points worse than it would be with Caleb Williams under center. Now it has to face a Vic Fangio defense in Philadelphia that has all week to plan for a backup quarterback – or, in Keenum’s case, a dude who hasn’t played in nearly two years in the NFL.
Here’s the part I think people miss.
With a backup in there, Ben Johnson runs it, throws it short and keeps the clock moving. That means fewer possessions for an offense that cannot afford to waste any of them.
I had the Bears Under last week. I also grabbed this full game Under at 44 on Tuesday, and it’s now down to 41.5. I’m not chasing it there.
I think the cleaner bet is still Chicago by itself.
The Bears team total is 17.5, and I’m looking to bet that to the Under.
Pick: Bears Team Total Under 17.5
Joe Raineri’s NFL Week 3 Picks
- Cleveland Browns +2.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5
- New England Patriots +3
- Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
- Chicago Bears Team Total Under 17.5
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