Two Americans are set to face off Friday night at Arthur Ashe Stadium in the 2026 US Open semifinals, but there’s only room for one to advance to Sunday’s final. Fresh off an incredible comeback in the quarterfinals, Frances Tiafoe will now go up against 23-year-old Ben Shelton, who completed a major upset in a match that ended at 3:33 a.m. ET, marking the latest finish in US Open history.
World No. 9 Shelton took down defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in that late-night quarterfinal thriller. It was a massive victory for Shelton, snapping Alcaraz’s 18-match Grand Slam winning streak and sending the American to the US Open semifinals for the second time in his career as he pursues his first Grand Slam singles title.
Tiafoe sits just behind Shelton in the world rankings at No. 12 and is also looking to advance to his first US Open final in pursuit of his first Grand Slam singles title. Tiafoe had quite the scare in the quarterfinals against unseeded American Alex Michelsen, dropping the first two sets before completing the comeback with a hard-fought five-set victory to reach the US Open semifinals for the third time in his career.
Tiafoe and Shelton have already played four times in their careers, with Shelton holding a 3-1 head-to-head advantage. Two of those meetings came at the US Open: Shelton earned a four-set quarterfinal victory in 2023 before Tiafoe responded with a five-set win in the Round of 32 in 2024. Their most recent meeting came in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Mubadala Citi DC Open, where Shelton earned a tightly contested straight-sets victory.
Read below for Tiafoe vs. Shelton predictions, picks, odds, and more as the two Americans battle for a spot in the US Open final.
Tiafoe vs. Shelton Odds
Shelton is listed as a sizable favorite at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook for Friday night’s semifinal as he comes off arguably the biggest win of his career:
- Frances Tiafoe to win: +220
- Ben Shelton to win: -275
Tiafoe vs. Shelton Predictions
Don’t forget to check out Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook’s Stats Hub when placing wagers on the US Open semifinals, where you can find tennis betting insights and trends to help make more informed selections like our Tiafoe vs. Shelton prediction below:
Shelton vs. Tiafoe Best Bet: Over 40.5 Total Games (-120)
Tiafoe and Shelton have both played in US Open semifinals before, but neither has ever reached a Grand Slam singles final. That will change Friday night.
Two of the best American men’s tennis players are set to clash at Arthur Ashe Stadium in what should be an electric environment. It’s difficult to imagine either player cruising to a convincing victory, especially considering their respective paths through this year’s tournament and their previous US Open meetings.
Tiafoe was pushed to five sets in his first-round win against unseeded Martin Damm before picking up three consecutive straight-sets victories, including wins over No. 22 seed Valentin Vacherot in the third round and world No. 8 Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 16. Then came his thrilling quarterfinal comeback against Michelsen, when Tiafoe rallied from two sets down to win in five.
Shelton’s first three matches all lasted four sets before he picked up a straight-sets victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Round of 16. He then survived a five-set battle against Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, needing four hours and 28 minutes to pull off the biggest win of his career.
There are also two key trends from the Stats Hub worth mentioning. Each of Tiafoe’s two previous Grand Slam semifinals has gone five sets, while 15 of Shelton’s last 18 ATP main-draw matches in the United States have gone over the total match games line.
- Shelton vs. Tiafoe Total Pick for Sept. 11: Over 40.5 Total Games (-120)
Tiafoe & Shelton 2026 US Open Winner Odds
Ben Shelton has the second-shortest odds at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook to win the 2026 US Open, while Frances Tiafoe has the next-shortest odds despite the sizable gap between the two:
- Frances Tiafoe to win the 2026 US Open: +700
- Ben Shelton to win the 2026 US Open: +155
Available Betting Markets for Tiafoe vs. Shelton
Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook offers a full menu of tennis betting markets for Tiafoe vs. Shelton, including:
- Set Betting
- To Win (Moneyline)
- Total Games (Over/Under)
- Total Games Spread
- Frances Tiafoe Total Games
- Ben Shelton Total Games
- Set 1 Total Games
- Set 2 Winner
- Set 3 Correct Score
- … and more!
Tiafoe vs. Shelton Match Info
- 📅 Date: Friday, Sept. 11
- ⏰ Start Time: 7:00 PM ET
- 🎾 Round: US Open Men’s Singles Semifinal
- 📍 Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Queens, NY
- 📺💻 TV/Streaming: ESPN
Referenced odds are subject to change.
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