It’s time to start locking in those Week 9 NFL Survivor picks and we’re live with this article a day early because the Thursday Night Football game is catching ownership and we need to talk about it.
Entering Week 9 there are 11,841 players still active and seeking an equal share of Hard Rock Bet’s $2 Million NFL Survivor prize pool. Do the math and the current value of each entry is up to $168.90 – nothing to sneeze at, so the mission is simple: let’s get to Week 10.
Below I’ll look at the full Week 9 schedule, analyze the current ownership, and I’ll offer up my favorite Survivor plays.
Should you pick the Jags on Thursday night?
I usually publish this article on Friday’s but Thursday night’s matchup between the 5-2 Jacksonville Jaguars and the 4-4 Ravens is suddenly very relevant for Survivor contests.
It was a costly afternoon in Buffalo on Sunday with Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both lost for the game, and potentially the season… leaving Joey Fagnano as the starter against this physical Jags team on Thursday night.
The Ravens have already made a trade for Jacoby Brissett, but it’s not expected to be finalized until the weekend. This signals that they do NOT believe in Fagnano, which makes the Jags a pretty enticing pick on Thursday night. But do you need to click it? I don’t think so.
Are there better spots to use the Jags in Survivor?
This didn’t look like a smash spot on paper earlier in the season, but the Jaguars are suddenly nine point favorites here. But just because it’s a good spot doesn’t mean we have to take it.
Next week the Jags visit Nashville to take on the 1-7 Titans. And then two weeks later the Titans actually come to Florida. So we’ve got two potentially appealing opportunities to pick on one of the worst teams in football.
We’ve seen some strange results on Thursday this year already – think Bucs-Cowboys… and this one is in Baltimore. I won’t begrudge anyone for riding with Jacksonville this week, and as of publication more than 16% of the picks that have been submitted are on them, but I think I prefer the other options given the Jags upcoming schedule.
To be clear, I think they win the game – but there are other good spots this week to look at.
NFL Week 9 Survivor Trends
Let’s run through the most popular plays of the week so far based on the current ownership data in Hard Rock Bet’s $2 million contest.
Kansas City Chiefs – 23.8% of Week 9 Survivor Picks
The Kansas City Chiefs (5-2), fresh off a dramatic defeat in Denver will look to rebound at home in a smash spot against the New York Jets (2-6). This is the most popular game of the week so far, with KC drawing 23.8% of the submitted picks.
There’s not much to dislike about this spot. The Chiefs have a long track record of being an elite team, with an elite home record – and there’s not a lot to fear from this Jets team. This is the largest spread of the week at ten points which begs the question… why wouldn’t you pick KC?
The case against KC in Week 9 Survivor
The first thing we need to do is look ahead. Are there other weeks of the contest that we think we’ll need Kansas City for?
They’ve got the Cardinals at home in Week 11, and the Chargers on the road in Week 17… but beyond that, it’s a pretty challenging road for the Chiefs. Broadly speaking, I don’t see a reason to save them.
Detroit Lions – 19.4% of Week 9 Survivor Picks
The Detroit Lions (5-2) are pulling in the second-most ownership at 19.4% of current selections as they travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins (1-6). The Lions are favored by a touchdown in a game that features an enticing 50.5 point total. The Lions are pretty good, the Dolphins are pretty bad – easy pick, right?
Reasons to pass on the Lions in Week 9 Survivor
First, Detroit isn’t the best road team. Dating back to the start of last season they’re 5-7 outside of the friendly confines of Ford Field, and if I’m staking my Survivor season on a pick I’d prefer it be the home team if at all possible.
Second, it’s not uncommon for teams to struggle in the Miami heat early in the season. While it might be cooling down in Michigan, the temperature on Sunday in Miami looks to be in the lower 80s.
Third, the Dolphins have been feisty. They lost by less than a touchdown on the road against Minnesota. They lost a one score game against the Bengals. The beat the Jets, and they lost a tight one against the Patriots who I think we’d all generally consider to be a solid outfit at the moment.
Look, I like the Lions this week – but it’s no lock. Further, they do have a date in Detroit with the Titans in Week 14 that looks pretty appealing if you wanted to stash them… and to top it all off they’re catching nearly 20% of the ownership so far. I think I’d rather roll with a team like the 49ers who are a larger favorite, at home, and catching half the ownership.
Seattle Seahawks – 9.8% of Week 9 Survivor Picks
Early data is also favoring the Seahawks (4-4) who have a 9.8% pick rate as they welcome Gardner Minshew and the 3-5 Cardinals to Seattle. I’m guessing we’ll see this figure decline as the weekend progresses as the Seahawks will be without starting QB Sam Darnold in this one. Drew Lock is a capable stand-in, but I think the confidence in Seattle definitely dips without their leader under center.
We’re essentially getting two brand new starting QBs in this one, which is a lot of unknown. I’d prefer to pick another spot and jump on board with Seattle later this season when Darnold gets back.
Ways to be different in Week 9 Survivor
If you’re shopping further down the board this week, additional popular plays include:
- San Francisco 49ers – 7.8% (home against the Raiders)
- New York Giants – 4.9% (away against the Eagles)
- Dallas Cowboys – 4.6% (away against the Colts)
The Best NFL Survivor Picks for Week 9
After a 3 for 3 performance in Week 8, let’s try to run it back in Week 9. These are my favorite plays for Week 9 Survivor contests.
- Kansas City Chiefs: It’s Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at home against the Jets. Sure, stranger things have happened, but I’m happy to click the most popular play on the board this week with KC.
- Chicago Bears: The Bears are riding a three-game winning streak that includes wins over both teams that made the Super Bowl last season. The game is in Chicago and the Bucs didn’t complete a forward past last week. The spread isn’t the highest of the week, but we’re getting a good ownership discount with only 4.4% of the field landing on Chicago. The Bucs want to establish the run and the Bears just acquired an elite DT in Jeffery Simmons. I like this spot, especially at 4.4%.
- San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are 9.5 point favorites and have the added benefit of both playing at home and coming off a bye. The Raiders got back on track last week but they did it against the Jets, and they had to travel east to do it. We’re getting half the ownership than the Lions, too.
Current Week 9 NFL Survivor Ownership Stats
Here is the current ownership data as of Thursday evening. Keep in mind this is the percentage of selections that have been made, not the overall percentage of remaining players.
- Kansas City Chiefs: 23.8%
- Detroit Lions: 19.3%
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 16.1%
- Seattle Seahawks: 9.8%
- San Francisco 49ers: 7.9%
- New York Giants: 5.0%
- Dallas Cowboys: 4.6%
- Chicago bears: 4.4%
- LA Rams: 2.1%
- Houston Texans: 1.9%
- New Orleans Saints: 1.5%
- Denver Broncos: 1.5%
- Cincinnati Bengals: .8%
- Buffalo Bills: .5%
- Cleveland Browns: .2%
- LA Chargers: .1%
- Philadelphia Eagles: .1%
- Green Bay Packers: .1%
- Atlanta Falcons: .1%
- New England Patriots: .1%
- Minnesota Vikings: .1%
- LV Raiders: 0%
- Washington Commanders: 0%
- Tampa Bay Bucs: 0%
- Baltimore Ravens: 0%
- Indianapolis Colts: 0%
- Miami Dolphins: 0%
- Carolina Panthers: 0%
- Arizona Cardinals: 0%
You’ve come to far to forget a pick
Not making a selection is the easiest way to be eliminated. Jump in the Hard Rock Bet app now and lock in your pick for Week 9. The last thing you want is to lose because you forgot to play.
We’ll refresh the data on Friday – but until then – good luck! See you in Week 10!
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. In AZ, OH, & VA, call 1-800-MY-RESET.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (CO, IL, MI, NJ, TN)
