College Football Week 1 Picks & Predictions: Auburn-Baylor, Clemson-LSU & More

Week 1 is upon us. Everybody hated on Week 0, but here is Week 1 – and it is a good slate.

As college football continues down this path of College Football Playoff expansion, we might not get this quality of a Week 1 slate moving forward. More conference games could eventually mean fewer marquee nonconference matchups. It is what it is. At least we’ve got this one.

I sat down with Jonathan and Kirby to preview six games spread across the holiday weekend. We went through the keys to each matchup, identified the players who could decide these games and made our final predictions.

Baylor vs. Auburn (-7.5)

Baylor and Auburn meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for a rematch of last year’s game in Waco. That matchup was supposed to be part of a home-and-home series, but Auburn’s return game was moved to a neutral site.

This one is going to be quarterback-adjacent. Which quarterback transfer is best suited to succeed with his new team?

Byrum Brown is technically a new quarterback at Auburn, but he is playing in the same system under the same head coach. He also brought several former USF teammates with him. That familiarity certainly favors Auburn.

On the other side, DJ Lagway has immense traits. I do not know whether I would call it immense talent yet because the talent has been discussed more than it has been consistently showcased on Saturdays. The traits are absolutely there, but the decision-making and his ability to read defenses got him into trouble at Florida.

Maybe something clicks for him at Baylor under Dave Aranda. The bigger question is whether Aranda can make the necessary defensive adjustments.

Jackson Arnold ran all over Baylor in this matchup last season. Now Auburn has Brown, who may not be a significantly better runner but is harder to tackle and presents an even greater threat in that part of the game. I wonder whether that becomes Auburn’s same mode of operation this year.

My X-factor for Auburn is going to be Xavier Atkins. You might as well write that one in pen for all my Auburn analysis this season.

He is one of the best linebackers in college football. He’s added a whole new set of armor after a couple of years of playing ball, and he is no longer the undersized linebacker we saw earlier in his career. Auburn’s entire linebacker corps can get it done, but Atkins is the player I am watching most closely.

Prediction: Auburn 31, Baylor 21

Clemson (+10.5) vs. LSU

We move to Baton Rouge, where Clemson travels to Tiger Stadium for the battle over the true Death Valley.

LSU won this matchup at Clemson last season. Now the game moves to Baton Rouge for Lane Kiffin’s debut as the Tigers’ head coach.

The first key is getting Christopher Vizzina off to an easy start. He waited three years to become Clemson’s starting quarterback, aside from one start against SMU last season. His first assignment is going into Baton Rouge and facing Blake Baker.

That is absolute insanity for a new starting quarterback.

Baker will attack from areas Vizzina does not expect. He will put a safety at nose tackle or drop a defensive lineman into a deep third. He throws things at the wall, and when they stick, it means you die.

Clemson needs a strong opening script. Settle Vizzina’s nerves, complete some easy throws and put points on the board. Even if the first drive ends with a field goal, that is a win.

For LSU, I want to know whether the Tigers can establish a real running game. We know Sam Leavitt can run the football, but can LSU consistently produce with its running backs? Can Tigers fans watch one game and immediately feel like that concern has been cleared from their minds?

The other question is whether LSU can put aside all the flash and drama once the whistle blows. The offseason has been loud. Former players have returned to the program, and Kiffin has done the trolling that he traditionally does.

Honestly, I think that is where Lane thrives. I do not think Lane can have a copacetic marriage. I do not think he is comfortable unless everything is hostile and there are hand grenades going off around him. Somehow, someway, that seems to be when he does his best work.

Clemson’s receivers will test LSU’s defense, especially Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore. The Tigers also have Sammy Brown in the middle of their defense, where he will be involved against the running game, in coverage and whenever Leavitt takes off.

Still, LSU has the more talented roster and home-field advantage. All signs point toward the Tigers starting Lane Kiffin’s tenure with a win in Baton Rouge.

Prediction: LSU 34, Clemson 24

UCLA vs. Cal (+1.5)

This is a little Sickos matchup for the late-night crowd. UCLA heads to Cal for what is essentially a pick’em, with the Golden Bears favored by only 1.5 points.

My key to the matchup is simple: Cal has to be ready to defend quarterback runs from Nico Iamaleava.

Iamaleava carried the football more than 100 times last year at UCLA, and he also ran it more than 100 times during his final season at Tennessee. This is not a quarterback who only takes off when a play breaks down. He carries the rock, and Cal needs to prepare accordingly.

I thought much of his rushing production last season came from situations where he felt like he had to scramble. This year, I expect UCLA to build more designed quarterback runs into the offense.

That fits what new head coach Bob Chesney brings from James Madison. His quarterback led the team in rushing touchdowns and finished second in rushing attempts last season. Like most modern college offenses, this system wants to involve the quarterback in the running game.

There is also a fascinating dynamic between these rosters. UCLA has five players who were at Cal last season, creating a little more hostility in a rivalry that has already changed because of conference realignment.

Cal has some intriguing receivers, including Rutgers transfer Ian Strong and Oregon transfer Cooper Perry. Strong offers a completely different build from Jacob De Jesus, but he produced more than 800 receiving yards at Rutgers last season and could become a major part of the Golden Bears’ offense.

I think this is a sneaky-good game. People are going to look up late Saturday night and realize we have another close one. It is the perfect late-night football matchup – the type of game that used to define Pac-12 After Dark.

I am a little bullish on the Bob Chesney train.

Prediction: UCLA 28, Cal 27

Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (-20.5)

Wisconsin and Notre Dame meet Sunday night at Lambeau Field, and the line initially freaked me out. I know Notre Dame is really good. I know Wisconsin struggled last season. Still, nearly 21 points from our friends at Hard Rock Bet in a Power Four matchup is a lot.

The biggest question for Notre Dame is whether the CJ Carr hype is real. He has been discussed as one of the top quarterbacks in college football throughout the offseason, but the Fighting Irish still have some things to figure out at running back and wide receiver.

Who are Carr’s crucial targets? Who is going to show up in important moments? Those are the questions Notre Dame needs to begin answering in Week 1.

For Wisconsin, I am not a big believer in Colton Joseph after watching the actual tape.

He produced impressive numbers as a runner at Old Dominion, but the film does not show the same thing. App State defenders ran him down on multiple occasions. He was also playing in a wide-choice system at Old Dominion, which is not what Wisconsin is going to run.

How well does he progress through his reads when asked to do so? How will he respond when the Badgers fall behind and can no longer lean on the running game? Joseph is my negative X-factor because I think Wisconsin could struggle and turn the football over.

The other player I will be watching is Anthony Knapp. He started for three years at left tackle despite not having prototypical tackle traits. Now he has moved inside to guard, which is his natural position and where he will likely play on Sundays.

Knapp is a tremendous athlete and technician, just like the rest of Notre Dame’s offensive line. I am excited to see what he looks like at his natural position.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Wisconsin 10

Louisville (+6.5) vs. Ole Miss

The Louisville Cardinals and Ole Miss Rebels also meet Sunday night in Nashville, where the biggest question for me concerns Isaac Brown.

Is Brown at the point in his career where Louisville can give him 20 carries to win a football game?

He has received that kind of workload before, but it has not happened consistently. Louisville has done a good job saving some of those touches for later in games and giving him a heavier workload down the stretch.

The Cardinals may need to lean on him more heavily with Lincoln Kienholz making his first career start. If Louisville is going to pull off the upset, Brown will need to have a magnificent day on the ground.

Ole Miss has to be ready for that challenge. I expect its defense to improve with Pete Golding now serving as the head coach, and the Rebels added more talent through the transfer portal.

My X-factor is Ole Miss linebacker Luke Ferrell. If you are a linebacker worth that much money, you had better be a slap dog.

Ferrell is a good tackler who hunts the football, but what stood out most on tape was his ability to run. He can cover ground from sideline to sideline, and Ole Miss will need that athleticism against Brown.

The Rebels have their own explosive running back in Kewan Lacy, who handled more than 20 carries in eight games last season. I expect explosive runs from both backfields because of how talented Brown and Lacy are.

Give me a close football game – closer than the odds expect.

Prediction: Ole Miss 30, Louisville 27

SMU (-2.5) vs. Florida State

SMU heads to Doak Campbell Stadium on Monday night to face a Florida State team that already has one game under its belt.

The Seminoles should have an advantage because they have already worked through some of the typical opening-game issues. Ousmane Kromah played well against New Mexico State and rushed for more than 100 yards, but Florida State still needs to get Ashton Daniels and Deuce Robinson rolling early.

My concern is on the other side of the football.

If New Mexico State’s offense had Florida State in a bind defensively, wait until SMU comes to town. Can Florida State’s defense simply line up correctly? Can it avoid getting beaten on double moves and trick plays? Can it eliminate the busted assignments?

Florida State has dudes on defense. The problem is that those dudes have not consistently played sound football. They hit hard and make individual plays, but the misalignments and coverage busts are coaching issues.

New Mexico State converted 10 of 17 third downs. That is disgusting against an opponent of that quality. Florida State cannot allow Kevin Jennings to repeatedly extend drives, especially because he can freelance and make plays after the original design breaks down.

My X-factor is SMU receiver Yannick Smith, a player I first saw at East Carolina.

Smith is from Summerville, South Carolina, and he was one of those players who somehow slipped through the cracks. He looked the part from the moment he arrived in college. He produced more than 400 yards as a freshman and more than 500 as a sophomore before becoming one of the players pulled away from ECU by a Power Four program.

He is now a 6-foot-2, 200-pound receiver at SMU and could cause major problems for a Florida State defense that struggled to keep everything organized in its opener.

I am still higher on Ashton Daniels than most people. I think he plays well enough to keep Florida State in the game, but I am trying to win these predictions right now.

Prediction: SMU 27, Florida State 24