We are back after a winning 2-1 Tuesday.
Yankees moneyline and the Pistons -3.5 both got there for us. They led basically the entire game and were really in command of Game 1.
The Wild got smoked by Colorado, and the under in that game also missed. So we’re up one unit for the week heading into this afternoon.
For today, I’ve got three bets for you plus a Hard Rock Bet of the Day in Wolves vs. Spurs.
76ers vs. Knicks: Knicks -6.5
Let’s start with the Knicks against the Philadelphia 76ers.
The number in Game 1 was 7.5. It got bet down to 7, and the Knicks won 137-98.
Now for Game 2, the line opened at 7.5 again and has already dropped to 6.5.
Look, this is the same way I felt about the Yankees last night. I don’t mind betting hot teams until they lose.
Maybe the Sixers bounce back. Maybe they play great. But I’m not betting on Philadelphia.
Not with Joel Embiid limited, and not with the Sixers heading into New York in a hostile environment against a red-hot Knicks team that simply looks like the better side. I think this is a mismatch.
I’m probably not getting involved with Philadelphia much at all in this series, but for Game 2, I’m laying the points.
The Pick: Knicks -6.5 (1.1 units)
Blue Jays vs. Rays: Under 7.5 (-105)
To baseball we go. Let’s talk about the Tampa Bay Rays. This is somewhat stunning.
The Rays are 23-12 on the year – not something I really saw coming. They’re only 1.5 games behind the Yankees.
They’re 13-4 at home, winners of five straight, and winners in nine of their last 10.
Now we test this theory again with Patrick Corbin. Corbin has actually been pretty solid this year. The Blue Jays have won four of his five starts.
On the other side, Shane McClanahan goes for Tampa Bay. At home, he’s been phenomenal with a 1.20 ERA. Not as sharp on the road with a 5.14 ERA, but overall he’s been terrific. Back-to-back scoreless starts.
So what are we doing here? Obviously, we’re betting the Under.
The Pick: Blue Jays vs. Rays Under 7.5 (-105) (1.05 units)
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: Ducks Moneyline (+140)
To hockey we go, with the Golden Knights against the Anaheim Ducks. Vegas is a pretty heavy favorite here at around -160.
The Golden Knights didn’t play particularly well in Game 1, but they still won thanks to a missed icing call, some fortunate bounces, and Anaheim not getting enough shots on net. I don’t think the Ducks repeat that performance tonight.
Anaheim lost Game 1 against Edmonton in their previous series 4-3, then bounced back to win Game 2 by a score of 6-4. Vegas did something similar against Utah, winning Game 1 before losing Game 2 at home 3-2.
I think history repeats itself here.
We took a shot with the Wild last night. Tonight, we’ll take a shot with the Ducks.
The Pick: Ducks Moneyline +140 (1 unit)
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Timberwolves vs. Spurs Under 216 (-110)
Now to the final play. Minnesota and San Antonio meet in Game 2.
Victor Wembanyama played a ton in Game 1, 40 minutes. I don’t think he plays that much tonight. Maybe it’s 25 or 30, but probably not 40.
The Spurs had a wide-open three to win Game 1.
I actually think San Antonio could win outright and cover the 9.5-point spread, but that number feels heavy. So instead, I’m going back to the total.
Minnesota has gone under in four of its last five games and six of its last eight.
San Antonio has seen three straight unders and five unders in its last six games.
That includes Game 1, which finished 104-102.
This is one of those situations where if it’s not broken, don’t try to fix it. Even if Wembanyama plays fewer minutes, he’ll still alter shots and control the glass defensively.
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Timberwolves vs. Spurs Under 216 points (-110) (1.1 units)
Final Card for Wednesday
Here’s what we’re looking at for today:
- Knicks -6.5
- Blue Jays vs. Rays Under 7.5 (-105)
- Ducks Moneyline (+140)
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs Under 216 points (-110)
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