It’s Game 3 of the ALCS, and it’s the most important game of the series.
The series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians is headed to Cleveland, with first pitch moved up to 1 p.m. ET because of the threat of rain.
With the series tied at one apiece, the team that wins Game 3 has gone on to win the ALCS 71 out of 102 times, or about 70% of the time.
I’ve got several player props to look at for today’s game, including a few different ways to approach Cleveland starter Gavin Williams.
Gavin Williams Strikeouts – Why I’m Passing
As someone who’s been watching Gavin Williams pitch since he was in college at ECU, it has been so much fun to watch him have that big moment for the Cleveland Guardians.
In ALDS Game 5, Williams saved his team, striking out 12 of the 21 batters he faced.
Williams has been incredible at home in the afternoon this year, averaging just under nine strikeouts per game. We’re seeing his strikeout prop at 6.5, and the Over has hit 75% of the time in those home afternoon games.
His sweeper has the second-best whiff rate in baseball going back to 2025.
The only caveat to the strikeouts, and why I’ll look elsewhere, is that the Rays really don’t strike out a lot.
They make a lot of contact, which could put Williams into some tough situations. Even the lefties couldn’t get the Rays to strike out, and righties have a much lower strikeout rate against Tampa Bay this year than lefties do.
I’m passing on Williams’ strikeouts against the Rays.
Gavin Williams Under 1.5 Earned Runs
The place you can look for Gavin Williams is Under 1.5 earned runs.
Williams is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in five career starts against the Rays. That’s just over one earned run per start.
That includes a start in Cleveland this April when he went 7.2 innings, allowing one earned run with nine strikeouts.
In the ALDS, Williams allowed just two runs over 11.2 innings in three appearances.
Cleveland’s bullpen has a 2.31 ERA this postseason, with 47 strikeouts and only 11 walks. If Williams gets himself into a little trouble, maybe he even gets pulled before he can allow that second run.
I’m going with Under 1.5 earned runs for Gavin Williams this afternoon.
Gavin Williams Under 16.5 Outs
Here’s the thing with Gavin Williams. If you’re concerned about the contact and the Rays being more of a contact team than a strikeout team against righties, you could look to Williams Under 16.5 outs.
I only worry about this because of how good he’s been in the afternoon at home this year.
However, in the ALDS, he threw 11.2 innings over three appearances. That’s about 12 outs per outing.
Cleveland starters have averaged just 11 outs per start this postseason, and Williams is going on four days’ rest.
The bullpen is fully rested with the day off, so you could look to back Under 16.5 outs.
Griffin Jax Under 3.5 Hits Allowed
On the other side, you could look to Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Griffin Jax Under 3.5 hits allowed.
He’s expected to go about four innings at best and hasn’t topped 75 pitches since the IL stint.
Fewer innings, fewer chances to give up hits.
Jax allowed just nine hits over 18 innings in his final four regular season starts. That’s just over two hits per start, and all four were Tampa Bay wins.
Since July 22, opponents have the sixth-lowest OPS in the American League against Jax.
His sweeper and changeup are his two best secondary pitches, and Cleveland struggles against both.
The Guardians are hitting just .193 against the sweeper and .204 against the changeup. Those are bottom-10 numbers in baseball.
I like Griffin Jax Under 3.5 hits allowed at around -130 to -135 at Hard Rock Bet.
Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Now for some offensive player props.
Let’s start with Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 hits, runs and RBIs.
It’s a little too juiced for me at -150. If you want to throw it in some kind of Same Game Parlay for fun, you can.
Bailey is 7-19 this postseason, good for a .368 batting average. He also has two home runs.
He was 6-14 with two homers over his last four games prior to the series.
We just don’t know who’s catching Williams, so make sure to keep an eye on the lineup.
Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 Total Bases
We faded Nathaniel Lowe a few days ago against a lefty, but against the right-handed Jax, Over 0.5 total bases isn’t looking so bad.
His on-base percentage is around .400 with three RBIs this postseason.
My only caution is that the late at-bats could work against him if Lowe has to face some lefties out of the bullpen.
MLB Best Bets & Props Today
Here are the props I’m looking at for Guardians-Rays Game 3:
- Gavin Williams Under 1.5 Earned Runs
- Gavin Williams Under 16.5 Outs
- Griffin Jax Under 3.5 Hits Allowed
- Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 Total Bases
Referenced odds are subject to change.
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