Happy Friday, everyone! You’ve found my NRFI best bets today, and I’ve got you covered with top No Run First Inning picks for Friday, April 24. We’ll break down the best MLB odds on Hard Rock Bet, so let’s get into the picks!
NRFI Best Bets Today for Friday, April 24
Here are the games I’m targeting for first-inning bets today, including two NRFI picks and one YRFI selection:
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Rockies @ Mets – 7:10 p.m. ET
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Guardians @ Blue Jays – 7:07 p.m. ET
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Angels @ Royals – 7:40 p.m. ET
NRFI Pick: Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (-125)
Here’s the honest truth about hunting for NRFI bets — oddsmakers are smart, and the best pitching matchups are usually juiced to the moon. If you want straight bets at reasonable prices, sometimes you have to get comfortable with picks that look a little uncomfortable on paper. This is one of those NRFI bets.
Michael Lorenzen isn’t a great overall pitcher, but context matters here. Per NRFI-Central, Lorenzen went 22-4 in first-inning NRFI results last season.
In 2026, he’s given up seven first-inning runs — but they all came in one disastrous outing against the Philadelphia Phillies. Strip that out, and he’s thrown clean first innings in all of his other starts this season. That’s meaningful.
Freddy Peralta takes the bump for the New York Mets, and he’s a quality arm. The Rockies rank outside the top 20 in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
The Mets have had some first-inning success this year despite their overall struggles, but the top of their order has been a revolving door. Juan Soto came back, and Francisco Lindor went right to the injured list. It’s net neutral at the top, which is fine for our purposes.
Weather seals it: temperatures are projected to sit just north of 50 degrees at first pitch in Queens. Cold air means less carry and less danger early. At -125, I like this NRFI bet today.
NRFI Pick: Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays (-125)
Gavin Williams has been flat-out dominant in 2026. He ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate, 88th percentile in expected batting average allowed, and 88th percentile in ground-ball rate, per Baseball Savant.
Opponents are hitting just .189 against him, and he’s punching out 33% of hitters. Yes, he’s issued some walks, and when hitters do make contact, it’s been hard — but very few are making contact at all.
The walk concern gets neutralized by Toronto’s approach at the plate. The Blue Jays own the second-lowest walk rate in baseball against right-handed pitchers so far this season, per FanGraphs. Williams doesn’t need to be perfect, and the Blue Jays aren’t going to make him pay with free baserunners.
Max Scherzer is clearly the bigger liability in this NRFI equation, and the -125 price reflects exactly that.
Opponents are hitting just .161 against him — but advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit lucky, and he’s been rough against left-handed hitters dating back to last season.
The good news: the Cleveland Guardians rank just 21st in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and are striking out at just above league average. They’re not a lineup built to blow a game open in the first inning. More boxes check for a NRFI than a YRFI in this matchup. I’m in at -125 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
YRFI Bet Today: Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals (-110)
This is my first YRFI pick of this weekly series, and both pitchers have earned it.
Yusei Kikuchi owns a 5.07 expected ERA and ranks in just the 29th percentile in expected batting average allowed, per Baseball Savant. He’s surrendering a 44% hard-hit rate. That’s not a recipe for a clean first inning against a lineup that still has Bobby Witt Jr. near the top.
Noah Cameron has regressed dramatically from his 2025 numbers. Last year, he posted a 2.99 ERA — but even then, his 4.07 expected ERA and .245 expected batting average allowed signaled the results weren’t fully sustainable.
In 2026, it’s fallen apart. He ranks in the 6th percentile in both expected ERA and expected batting average; his velocity is down from last year’s already-below-average marks, he’s allowing a 49% hard-hit rate, and his ground-ball rate sits at just the 7th percentile. The Angels rank 10th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, and they have the bats to get to him early.
Two pitchers who have been getting hit hard, a dangerous top of the Royals order, and a hot Angels lineup against southpaws. At -110, this YRFI is the play.
Good luck with your NRFI picks today, and have a great weekend!
All referenced odds are subject to change.
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