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The 2026 World Cup is officially underway, and we’re wasting no time looking for value on the board. One of the first matches that caught our attention is Brazil vs. Morocco.

We love Morocco. We really do.

We don’t think what happened four years ago was just a blip. This is a team that has proven it can compete on the biggest stage, and we think Brazil is totally overrated coming into this tournament.

We’ve seen some models giving Brazil a 75% chance to win Group C, and just don’t buy it.

Bet of the Week: Morocco +450

If you’re looking at the group futures market, we have no issue backing Morocco to win Group C (+325). But let’s get right to it because Morocco gets Brazil immediately.

Right now, Morocco is +450 on the 3-way moneyline on Hard Rock Bet to win that game outright against Brazil.

We love that number. At +450, there’s tremendous value in backing them to pull off the upset in this match. We think they may be able to catch this Brazil team sleeping right out of the gate.

For us, that’s exactly the kind of number we’re looking for when we’re talking about a Big Balls Bet of the Week.

The Safer Play Still Offers Value

If you’re someone who wants to play it a little safer, soccer betting gives you another option.

Morocco is available at +0.5 goals at +130 on Hard Rock Bet. That means you’re already starting the match with half a goal in your pocket. If the game ends in a draw, you cash the ticket on Morocco.

That’s a great way to approach it if you’re looking for a little more protection.

But we think Morocco has a legitimate chance to beat this Brazil team outright.

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Sharp or Square Brazil vs. Morocco World Cup Picks

For Brazil vs. Morocco, we like:

  • Big Balls Bet of the Week: Morocco moneyline (+450)
  • Morocco +0.5 goals (+130)
  • A little taste on Morocco to win Group C (+325)

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Chad Millman

Chad Millman is the co-host of Sharp or Square on The Volume network, formerly known as The Favorites, one of the top-rated sports betting podcasts on Apple’s sports podcast charts. He began his career as a reporter for Sports Illustrated before becoming Editor-in-Chief of ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com, where he also launched the network’s sports betting beat. A key figure in shaping modern sports betting media, Millman went on to help launch the Action Network, serving as its Chief Content Officer.