Happy Monday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for August 24 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s kick off the new week by hunting for three power bats in some very favorable matchups.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, August 24
- Munetaka Murakami +275 (Rangers at White Sox – Rate Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +325 (Cubs at Diamondbacks – Chase Field – 9:40 p.m. ET)
- Abimelec Ortiz +500 (Rockies at Nationals – Nationals Park – 6:45 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Pick: Munetaka Murakami
We’ll head to Rate Field, where the White Sox host the Rangers at 7:40 p.m. ET. Kumar Rocker gets the ball for Texas, and Munetaka Murakami is a really appealing home run pick at +275.
Rocker has had serious problems with left-handed power this season. He’s allowed an ISO higher than .200 against left-handed hitters. He has simply been terrible when facing left-handed power bats, and Murakami is about as dangerous as it gets.
The batting average may not jump off the page — Murakami is sitting just north of .220 — but we are not betting batting average. We are betting raw power. He has clubbed 29 home runs overall, with 23 coming against right-handed pitching, while slugging .580 against them this year.
His .338 ISO against righties is ridiculous, and the Statcast profile backs every bit of it up. Murakami ranks in the 95th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. That is a true difference-maker profile.
Rocker has been unable to neutralize left-handed hitters, and Murakami is built to punish righties. Give me the White Sox star to leave the yard at home.
MLB Home Run Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Next, we’ll go to Chase Field as the Cubs visit the Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET. Pete Crow-Armstrong draws Merrill Kelly, and this might be the best matchup of the day for home runs.
Kelly’s surface results have been poor, but the advanced numbers are somehow even worse. He ranks in the first percentile in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed, the second percentile in barrel rate allowed, and the ninth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. There is not much to like here.
Left-handed hitters have absolutely obliterated him. Kelly has allowed 18 home runs to lefties this season, a .532 slugging percentage, and a monstrous .277 expected ISO.
That is a nightmare matchup against PCA, who is having an incredible year and has proven he can do damage against any type of pitcher. Crow-Armstrong has enormous upside whenever he gets a righty who is struggling to suppress barrels, and Kelly is one of the worst in baseball at doing exactly that.
Chase Field is a controlled environment, so we do not have to sweat weather at all. We have a powerful lefty, a right-hander getting crushed by lefties, and a generous +325 price. That is enough for me.
MLB Home Run Pick: Abimelec Ortiz
Finally, we’ll head to Nationals Park as the Nationals host the Rockies at 6:45 p.m. ET. I’m taking a longer shot with Abimelec Ortiz at +500 against Colorado right-hander Ryan Feltner.
Ortiz has a very small Major League sample to his name this season, but the power is impossible to ignore. He has five home runs in only 57 at-bats against right-handed pitching, good for an ISO pushing .300.
The sample is tiny, so we need to be honest about that. But if Ortiz qualified, his bat speed, barrel rate, and expected slugging percentage would all sit near the top of the league. This did not come out of nowhere, either. He hit 18 home runs in Triple-A this season and launched 25 across two levels in 2025.
The power has always been part of Ortiz’s profile, and it looks like it may have carried over to the big leagues. Feltner ranks toward the bottom of the league in barrel rate allowed and is only a league-average ground-ball pitcher this season. He can be vulnerable when hitters elevate, and that is precisely what Ortiz has been doing.
At 5/1, this is a nice number to take a shot on a young hitter with legitimate pop.
Worst MLB Games for Home Runs Today
Not every game needs to be a home run target. A couple of Monday matchups are better left alone when we’re hunting dingers.
Giants vs. Reds: Pass on San Francisco
The Reds visit the Giants at Oracle Park at 9:45 p.m. ET, where Chase Burns is set to take the mound for Cincinnati. Burns has been unbelievable this season and has looked every bit like one of baseball’s nastiest young arms.
He misses an absurd number of bats, and while his ground-ball rate is not elite, Oracle Park can clean up a lot of mistakes. It is one of the tougher environments in baseball to hit in, especially at night, and that makes it difficult to get excited about targeting home runs in this matchup.
Burns is already a tough assignment, and combining his swing-and-miss stuff with a ballpark that suppresses offense is not exactly the recipe we’re looking for when shopping the home run board.
Phillies vs. Mariners: Not a Seattle Spot
The Phillies visit the Mariners at T-Mobile Park, and Zack Wheeler gets a massive ballpark upgrade for pitching. Wheeler has been incredible, and now he gets to work in arguably the worst hitting environment in baseball.
According to Baseball Savant’s rolling three-year park factors, T-Mobile Park ranks dead last for hitters. That matters a lot when we’re trying to find a ball that can carry out of the yard.
Wheeler is already one of the tougher pitchers to square up, so putting him in a massive pitcher-friendly environment against Seattle is a spot I’m not looking to force.
Meanwhile, Oracle Park may not be quite as extreme, but it ranks just 26th in the same park-factor window, which reinforces why both of these games are lower on my home run board.
Good luck Monday!
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