Happy Friday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for September 4 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. We have a nice mix of a long-shot power bat, a true breakout star in a great matchup, and a Home Run Derby champion getting the Coors Field treatment. Let’s get into my best home run picks today!
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, September 4
- Ryan Jeffers +500 (Twins at White Sox – Rate Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)
- Jac Caglianone +375 (Blue Jays at Royals – Kauffman Stadium – 8:10 p.m. ET)
- Jordan Walker +300 (Cardinals at Rockies – Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Pick: Ryan Jeffers
We’ll start at Rate Field, where the White Sox host the Twins at 7:40 p.m. ET. Ryan Jeffers is the first power bat I’m targeting, and we can get him at a really nice 5/1 price on Hard Rock Bet.
Jeffers has missed some time this season, but he is still putting together what I’m willing to call a career year. The advanced metrics are strong, as he ranks well above MLB average in barrel rate and expected slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant.
Most impressively, Jeffers has shown some serious reverse-split pop. He is slugging .535 against right-handed pitching with 11 home runs in that split, which is exactly what we want to see against Chicago right-hander Erick Fedde.
Fedde has been crushed by same-handed hitters this season, allowing a whopping .246 ISO to righties. That is a crazy number to bring into a matchup with a catcher who has been making loud contact and showing real right-on-right power.
Jeffers is a great long-shot look at +500. We are getting a hitter with a strong power profile, a favorable split, and a vulnerable opposing pitcher at a number that feels too high.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Jac Caglianone
Next, we’ll go to Kauffman Stadium as the Royals take the field at 8:10 p.m. ET. Jameson Taillon is set to start against Kansas City, and honestly, I like pretty much every Royals hitter against him right now.
Taillon has been pulverized this season. He is allowing an ISO near .300 to left-handed hitters and a .244 mark to righties. Nothing is good. He has been bad against hitters from both sides of the plate, which makes Kansas City one of the top offenses to target on Friday’s board.
Jac Caglianone stands out as the top power play at +375. The MLB sophomore has truly broken out this season, and it was pretty cool to see him get some national-platform time at the Home Run Derby. He swings one of the quickest bats in the league statistically, and plenty of his advanced metrics are through the darn roof.
Caglianone has legitimate superstar power, and a matchup with Taillon gives him a chance to put it on display. The +375 number feels like a gift.
Vinnie Pasquantino at +450 is also an honorable-mention play if you do not like Cags for some reason. Taillon has been terrible against lefties, and both Kansas City power bats are in a great spot.
MLB Home Run Bet: Jordan Walker
Finally, we’ll head to Coors Field, where Jordan Walker gets the Rockies and Ryan Feltner. Walker is the reigning Home Run Derby champion, and getting him at 3/1 in Denver is a number I’m happy to take.
Feltner has allowed a .254 ISO to right-handed hitters this season, which is an awful number when you are taking the mound at altitude. Walker owns a .206 ISO against same-handed pitching, and his Statcast numbers are incredible.
The biggest one is his 100th-percentile bat-speed ranking, per Baseball Savant. Walker has the kind of raw juice that can turn a routine fly ball into a home run, and Coors Field is the perfect place for a hitter with that level of power.
He is a ticking time bomb for some Coors Field shenanigans. Feltner struggles against righties, Walker has elite bat speed, and the elevation offers the extra boost we always want when hunting dingers.
MLB Home Run Leaders
Here are the MLB home run leaders as of Friday, Sept. 4:
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies — 40
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs — 39
- Matt Olson, Braves — 37
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros — 37
- Junior Caminero, Rays — 37
- Hunter Goodman, Rockies — 36
- Ben Rice, Yankees — 35
- Pete Alonso, Orioles — 33
- Rafael Devers, Giants — 32
- Sal Stewart, Reds — 31
Good luck Friday!
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