Jason Timpf’s Trail Blazers vs. Spurs First Round Playoff Series Breakdown & Prediction

We are continuing our set of NBA Playoffs series previews today with the San Antonio Spurs and the Portland Trail Blazers, so let’s talk some basketball.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Season Series

The Spurs won the season series two games to one.

Victor Wembanyama did not play in any of the three games. Steph Castle missed two of the games. Devin Vassell missed a game.

On the Blazers’ side, Jerami Grant only played in one of the three games. Jrue Holiday only played in one of the three games. Shaedon Sharpe missed a game.

So, it’s really tough to get a good feel for the matchup based on the regular season sample.

Again, Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday were a huge part of the late-game run for the Blazers to come back and beat Phoenix.

So once again, just like we’ve talked about with all of these series previews, there’s a certain amount of conjecture we have to use when evaluating what these teams will look like in a playoff setting.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Current Odds at Hard Rock Bet

Let’s look at the series prices provided by Hard Rock Bet.

San Antonio is a massive favorite at -2000, with Portland as the underdog at +900.

I don’t see any value there because I don’t think Portland can win the series, but I do think they can keep it somewhat competitive.

Why Portland Can Stay Competitive

The main reason I think Portland can keep this more competitive than expected comes down to ball handling. If you look at the heavy ball handlers in this series, Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Steph Castle, De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, I think Deni Avdija is the best player in that group.

Even without Wembanyama in those regular season games, Avdija looked very comfortable against San Antonio’s perimeter defenders. He averaged 32 points per game on 64% true shooting in those matchups, scoring from all three levels.

But Wembanyama changes everything.

Without him, the Spurs posted a 117 defensive rating, well below average. With him, that number drops to 105, elite, in the 98th percentile.

That’s a completely different ballgame.

Spurs Offensive Advantage

San Antonio’s offense is built around Wembanyama’s vertical spacing. He rolls hard to the rim, creating constant pressure on the defense. For a team like Portland, especially in traditional lineups, that’s a major problem.

Whether it’s finishing at the rim, forcing help rotations, or generating corner threes, the Spurs are going to get good looks.

And defensively, Wembanyama’s presence will force Portland’s guards, Avdija, Holiday, and Scoot, into more perimeter shot-making instead of finishing at the rim.

That’s a big shift.

Portland’s Small-Ball X-Factor

The key for Portland is small ball.

At the end of the Suns game, they used a lineup of Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant, and Toumani Camara. That group barely played together this season, but in limited minutes, they posted a 149 offensive rating. They spaced the floor, allowed Avdija to attack downhill, and overwhelmed Phoenix.

The key to that lineup is aggregate size.

Even without a traditional center, they still have length, strength, and athleticism across all five positions. That allows them to switch defensively, contain pick-and-roll actions, and force San Antonio into more isolation basketball.

Can Small Ball Disrupt the Spurs?

If Portland can switch ball screens and stay in front, they can limit Wembanyama’s impact as a roller. That forces San Antonio into less efficient offense: pull-up jumpers and isolation plays.

On the other end, spacing Wembanyama away from the rim creates opportunities for Avdija to attack. But it requires shooting.

Grant, Camara, and Holiday all need to hit open shots to make it work. And even then, it’s not a guaranteed solution, it’s just their best chance.

Jason Timpf’s Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Pick

• Spurs in six: +500

I don’t see much of an upset chance here, but I do think Portland can make this competitive. If you told me Portland ties the series at two before San Antonio closes it out, I wouldn’t be surprised.

This is a good first-round test for the Spurs, an opportunity to confront weaknesses and gain playoff experience. And for Portland, it’s a chance to showcase what they can do with their young core.

Overall, it should be a fun, competitive series, but one that San Antonio ultimately controls.